VZCZCXYZ0014
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #1558/01 1301204
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101204Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5320
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1531
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1563
RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 8326
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1887
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 8440
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 7946

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001558 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT:  BELGIUM'S 2007 ELECTION ? WHERE THE PARTIES 
STAND ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES 
 
 
Foreign Affairs Are No Election Affair 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶1. (U) In 1983 some 300,000 people marched through the 
streets of Brussels to protest the deployment American 
cruise missiles in Belgium.  It was the largest protest 
registered since World War II, and almost brought down 
government of Wilfred Martens.  Despite predictions 
that the issue would have an impact on the 1985 general 
elections, the prognosticators were proven wrong. 
Martens, a Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V ? Christian 
Democratic and Flemish), consolidated his position with 
a solid victory.  Every federal election since has 
demonstrated the point that foreign affairs and 
security issues play only a limited direct role. 
 
¶2. (U) The same situation exists in the post-election 
government formation period.  With foreign affairs and 
defense policy discussions generally taking place at 
the very end of the formation talks, the parties 
generally are ready to jettison deeply held convictions 
to strike a deal and be sworn in by the King.  The 
tradition of compromise is particularly true on the 
left, where Belgium's socialist foreign ministers have 
regularly shown themselves ready to break with party 
orthodoxy on even the most controversial of issues, 
including NATO's cruise missile dual-track decision of 
1979, the cruise missile deployment of 1985, the 1990 
Gulf War, and the current conflict in Iraq. 
 
A Consensus Builder 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht (Open VLD ? the 
Flemish Liberal party) is the primary reason why 2007 
will be no exception to the longstanding tradition of 
low public interest in foreign affairs.  Since taking 
office in 2004, De Gucht has worked assiduously to 
lower the temperatures that rose during the tenure of 
his predecessor Louis Michel, a Francophone Liberal 
(MR), who liked hard talking and generating 
controversy.  De Gucht has managed to create a 
consensus on most issues within the current four-party 
coalition of Liberals and Socialists.  Even some 
opposition leaders have acknowledged publicly that they 
have no quarrel with the way De Gucht has handled his 
assignment. 
 
The Great Flahaut Show 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) There is, however, much less consensus 
regarding the role of Defense Minister Andre Flahaut. 
A Francophone socialist (PS ? Socialist Party), Flahaut 
is a perennial bogeyman for many, notably in the 
Flemish press and in the CD&V.  The verbal 
confrontations in Parliament between Flahaut and the 
opposition CD&V floor leader were among the rare 
moments of parliamentary fireworks during the past four 
years. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Flahaut has held the defense portfolio for 
eight years, much longer than any of his predecessors. 
And he has proven to be a man with a mission.  Since 
taking office, Flahaut has set himself the goal of 
reducing the armed forces from an initial level of 
40,000 to 27,000 by the year 2016.  While there is a 
wide consensus in Belgium that the forces should 
concentrate on peacekeeping, Flahaut has focused on the 
humanitarian aspect of peacekeeping.  Because of this 
emphasis on humanitarian work, Flahaut and his generals 
have opted to purchase light equipment, a decision that 
renders peacekeeping in high-risk areas increasingly 
less feasible.  Moreover, because of financial and 
material restrictions, Belgium finds it difficult to 
send more than 1,000 troops on overseas operations at 
any given time. 
 
Future Implications 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Belgium's defense budget cuts are a clear 
reflection of the power of the two Socialist Parties, 
the PS on the French side and the SP.A (i.e., the 
 
Flemish Socialists) on the Flemish side.  SP.A Party 
President Johan Vande Lanotte has already opined that 
there is room for further reductions in defense 
outlays.  He even has stated that in an ideal world the 
development assistance budget should be bigger than the 
defense budget. The Flemish Socialist leader also 
strongly opposes most out-of-area operations at NATO 
(Afghanistan is the exception) and, absent specific UN 
endorsement, Belgian involvement in the broader war on 
terrorism.  The party is once more giving public 
support to demands for the removal of all U.S. tactical 
nuclear weapons from Europe and, in a bid to gain votes 
from Belgium's powerful peace movement, was a vocal 
backer of legislation to ban submunitions. 
 
The European Subterfuge 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) has 
traveled Europe pleading for a "European Defense 
alternative." (Verhofstadt uses the phrase elastically 
to cover, depending on the occasion, everything from 
Eurocorps, to European-oriented procurement, to a more 
formal European armed force.)  In this, he is 
reflecting a broad consensus among all Belgian 
political parties that Europe must place a higher 
priority on development of its own capabilities in 
everything from defense policymaking, to procurement, 
and even the establishment of an actual European armed 
force.  (It is unclear how long this consensus would 
last if the parties were asked to respond to a concrete 
proposal.)  Verhofstadt?s Open VLD is willing to commit 
more resources to a slimmer and better equipped force, 
a view shared by the Christian Democrats on both sides 
of the linguistic border.  There also is a consensus 
among the political parties on NATO being built on 
distinctive American and European pillars, and on NATO- 
led peacekeeping missions taking place under the United 
Nations umbrella. 
 
The Bonus 
--------- 
 
¶8. (U) Having been Prime Minister for eight years, 
Verhofstadt is attempting during the current electoral 
campaign to portray himself as a European statesman 
capable of putting the European Project back on the 
rails.  He and his party are now pleading for an 
energetic attempt to salvage the concept of a federal 
Europe, with a European foreign minister, armed force, 
and qualified majority decision making.  The Belgians 
have made clear they ultimately will follow whatever 
version of the constitutional treaty the Germans are 
able to fashion before the end of their Presidency in 
June, even as they push for Chancellor Merkel to go 
farther and faster.  With small variations in tone and 
on immediate priorities, the other parties remain 
committed to a federal Europe, to support for EU 
expansion into the Balkans, and to gradual progress 
toward Turkish accession. 
 
Chained to Congo and to Development Assistance 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (U) For all the energy and revenue Belgium has spent 
on Congo, the election manifestoes are rather brief on 
the subject. Politicians know that despite the 
persistence of sentimental bonds, the Belgian public 
views Congo as a lost cause.  Despite this widely held 
belief, the Flemish and Francophone approaches to the 
issue differ markedly.  Foreign Minister De Gucht, a 
Flemish speaker, has frequently delivered blunt 
lectures to Congolese leaders on their failings. 
However, Defense Minister Flahaut, a Francophone, has 
sought to charm them with kind words.  Only the 
Francophone parties plead for intensifying Belgium?s 
efforts in the Great Lakes region.  The Francophone 
Liberals in the MR even believe Belgium should find the 
means to upgrade Belgium?s role within MONUC. 
 
¶10. (U) Most of the party manifestoes promise also for 
the umpteenth time to upgrade development assistance to 
0.7 percent of GDP, and to spread the development 
effort more evenly over aid-recipient countries. 
 
Similar promises ? and similar failure to achieve much 
? have preceded and followed earlier elections. 
 
Lofty Ideals 
------------ 
 
¶11. (U) The two Green parties traditionally have 
radical foreign affairs platforms, invariably critical 
of the U.S.  As during past elections, they plead for 
reformation of the WTO, IMF, World Bank and UN, all 
with the goal of giving more political clout within 
these organizations to third world countries.  The two 
ecological parties state also that Belgium should take 
a leading role in efforts to conclude an arms trade 
treaty and an international treaty banning sub- 
munitions. The Green parties oppose NATO's role in 
operations outside the European theatre absent a UN 
endorsement, and want the removal of nuclear weapons 
from Europe.  The Green Parties also support 
renegotiation of the 1971 Line of Communications Treaty 
signed between NATO and Belgium.  The Greens favor 
closer EU ties with Russia and the other states of the 
former Soviet Union, while pleading for a fully 
sovereign and independent Palestinian state. (While the 
Palestinians can count on a certain residual sympathy 
from many on the left, most parties are more 
circumspect and the Prime Minister's Open VLD is a 
strong supporter of Israel.) 
FOX