VZCZCXRO3588
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0302 1030600
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 130600Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4140
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4814
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0649
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE 0587
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000302 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP 
DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL FJ NZ
SUBJECT: GNZ WORRIES BAINIMARAMA IS IN A HOLE AND STILL 
DIGGING 
 
REF: SUVA 211 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David J. Keegan, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) The GNZ worries that interim PM Bainimarama is 
increasingly fragile and his actions risk throwing the 
country into armed conflict.  Heather Riddell, Director of 
the Pacific Division, calls Bainimarama's measures 
restricting the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) "loopy." 
Bainimarama has now cut himself off from Fiji's traditional 
power base.  This will circumscribe his support base and will 
add to  perceptions that he is running a Fijian Indian 
agenda.  Riddell observes it seems unlikely Bainimarama will 
be able to dig himself out of this hole, and he may become 
more desperate as a result. 
 
¶2.  (C) While the GCC is ridden with factions and some 
Fijians dislike it, most will be shocked by Bainimarama's 
actions.  Riddell is particularly concerned that the measures 
may make an intra-military reaction more likely, and the 
result could be violent mutiny and other bloodshed. 
 
¶3.  (C) Comment. While we are not in a position to assess 
MFAT,s concern over possible mutiny and bloodshed, New 
Zealand,s analysis and predictions on Fiji have proven 
exceptionally reliable over the past few months. 
 
 
 
McCormick