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UNCLAS TEL AVIV 001263 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War 
 
¶2.  Mideast 
 
¶3.  Iran 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Over the weekend Channel 10-TV unofficially disclosed the basic 
points of the interim report of the Winograd Commission probing the 
Second Lebanon War, which will be handed over to PM Ehud Olmert and 
Defense Minister Amir Peretz at 4 P.M. [09:00 EDT] today, and 
presented to the public one hour later.  All media followed in the 
footsteps of Channel 10-TV.  The media said that the commission will 
determine that Olmert erred in his judgment, that Peretz was dragged 
behind the army, and that former IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz 
imposed his views on Peretz and ignored Hizbullah's Katyusha rocket 
threat.  Ha'aretz quoted a senior Kadima member as saying last night 
that Olmert would sooner or later be asked by his party to step down 
as PM in order t avoid "dragging the party down with him."  The 
Jerusalem Post quoted Olmert's associates as saying that they 
expected today to be a difficult day, but that they were not 
concerned that the interim report would hasten the end of Olmert's 
political career, because his rivals in Kadima, Labor, and Likud all 
have an interest in allowing him to remain prime minister -- at 
least until the release of the final Winograd report in July, which 
is expected to be more critical.  The Jerusalem Post reported on FM 
Tzipi Livni's popularity among Kadima members, even though Olmert 
associates admitted there was "frustration" inside Olmert's bureau 
with Livni's silence about the commission's report and the spate of 
political meetings she has held in recent days.  Ha'aretz reported 
that Peretz associates told the newspaper on Sunday that Peretz will 
apparently not be forced to resign by the commission's findings. 
 
Yediot reported on the opposition's expected moves following the 
disclosure of the Winograd report.  The newspaper said that Likud 
and National Union-National Religious Party want to move up the 
elections.  Yediot noted Meretz's hesitancy because of the fear that 
new elections would bring back Binyamin Netanyahu to power.  The 
newspaper reported that Netanyahu will respond to the report only 
 
after he reads it. 
 
Yediot: disclosed that over the past year Syria has built a 
fortified compound deep underground, with dozens of bunkers ready 
for the launching of missiles against Israel and that the IAF cannot 
destroy. 
 
Israel Radio quoted Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashal as 
confirming in an interview with the Palestinian daily Al-Ayyam that 
Fatah-Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti is included among the prisoners 
that Hamas wants released. 
 
On Sunday leading media reported that on Saturday PM Olmert's bureau 
denied that Olmert had told the German magazine Focus that Iran's 
disputed program could be severely hit by firing 1,000 cruise 
missiles during a 10-day attack.  Focus said its reporter, Amir 
Taheri, asked Olmert in an interview whether military action would 
be an option if Iran continued to defy the United Nations. It quoted 
Olmert as responding: "Nobody is ruling it out.  It is impossible 
perhaps to destroy the entire nuclear program but it would be 
possible to damage it in such a way that it would be set back 
years," Focus quoted Olmert as saying.  "It would take 10 days and 
would involve the firing of 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles," it 
quoted him as saying. 
 
Over the weekend the media reported that on Saturday the IDF shot 
and killed three Palestinians who were spotted planting an explosive 
device next to the Gaza Strip security fence near the Kissufim 
Crossing.  Leading media reported that over the weekend the IDF 
arrested dozens of Palestinians in the West Bank. 
 
Leading media reported that IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi told 
the cabinet on Sunday that Hizbullah is trying move back into south 
Lebanon, and that weapons smuggling from Syria continues.  Yediot 
and The Jerusalem Post quoted Ashkenazi as saying that a large-scale 
operation in the Gaza Strip may be necessary if Qassam rocket fire 
continues.  The Jerusalem Post reported that on Sunday Gen. Burhan 
Hammad of the Egyptian General Intelligence Force launched a 
scathing attack on Palestinian armed groups for continuing to fire 
rockets at Israel and warned that the Palestinians will pay a heavy 
price if the IDF invades the Gaza Strip. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that on Sunday PM Olmert opposed solo 
efforts by Defense Minister Peretz to evacuate Hebron settler from 
the four-story structure they move into on March 19.  Olmert was 
quoted as saying that the cabinet would first hold a discussion on 
the subject. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that US Congresswoman Shelley Berkley 
(D-NV) is threatening to take legislative action against Saudi 
Arabia following a report in The Jerusalem Post that the desert 
kingdom took part in an Arab League conference aimed at 
strengthening the boycott of Israel. 
 
Yediot reported that in August an Indian launcher will send off the 
most advanced Israeli satellite so far. 
 
On Sunday The Jerusalem Post reported that New York Senator Hillary 
Rodham Clinton was the most applauded among the Democratic 
presidential candidates who addressed the National Jewish Democratic 
Council last week. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that over 270 BBC journalists have 
signed a petition opposing the decision earlier this month by the 
UK's largest union of journalists to boycott Israeli goods, saying 
they are "dismayed" at the passing of the motion. 
 
Yediot and other media reported that on Sunday the heads of Yad 
Vashem called on UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to dispatch an 
army to Darfur in order to stop the genocide there. 
 
The Jerusalem Post noted the key role of US and Canadian Jewry in 
filling the role of the GOI in helping the population of northern 
Israel during the Second Lebanon War.  The newspaper also printed an 
AP story that Israel will name a forest in northern Galilee after 
Coretta Scott King, the late widow of the Rev. Martin Luther King, 
Jr., as the country replants thousands of trees destroyed during the 
war. 
 
Ha'aretz printed an AP wire report quoting producers of Sesame 
Street that new episodes of the program are going on in Israel and 
the Palestinian territories.  On Sunday Gary Knell, president of 
Sesame Workshop, the New York-based nonprofit group behind Sesame 
Street programming worldwide, met with Aliza Olmert, the PM's wife, 
and Education Minister Yuli Tamir.  Knell was quoted as saying: "It 
is really about respect and tolerance." 
 
Yediot reported that the government is demanding the expansion of 
Shin Bet and police supervision, especially over university and 
stock exchange computers. 
 
Leading media reported that on Sunday an Israeli court sentenced 
Baruch Dadon, a state witness who had testified against underworld 
kingpin Zeev Rosenstein, to 10 years imprisonment mostly for 
offenses committed n the US.  Rosenstein was extradited from the US 
in March. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the American hedge funds group 
Cerberus-Gabriel is asking Israel to give it USD 1785 million, or 
17.5 percent of the price it is expected to pay for the 20-percent 
controlling in Bank Leumi, Israel's second-largest bank.  Ha'aretz's 
estimate follows a conclusion reached by the Bank of Israel and the 
Finance Ministry that the Leumi option is worth USD 25 million a 
month. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
¶1.  Winograd Probe Into 2nd Lebanon War: 
---------------------------------------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "There is no doubt that 
the overwhelming majority of public opinion does not want Olmert and 
does not want Peretz.... [But] either the people prefer to let the 
political establishment take its course, or else they are sick of 
everyone." 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv: "The public will have its say -- a large 
tsunami that will flood the government complex, blowing wind upon 
 
SIPDIS 
the embers of rebellion." 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: "There is no 
reason to wait for the final report [of the Winograd Commission 
probing the Second Lebanon War].  The interim report is sufficient 
in order to justify the national lack of confidence in Olmert." 
 
Deputy Managing Editor Anshel Pfeffer wrote on page one of the 
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post: "The polls show that 
disillusionment with the current government is all but universal, 
but where are the masses?" 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "The Last Battle" 
 
Senior columnist Nahum Barnea wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (4/30): "There was a 
failed war here in the summer.  It was the most naked of Israel's 
wars.... New details can be revealed to us, here and there, but all 
in all, it is very hard to surprise us.  We know what expectations 
Olmert, Peretz, and Halutz created in the public, and we know what 
the results were on the ground.  It is not the thirst for answers 
that led to the committee being formed, it was the hunger for 
punishment.... However, the report is a very important milestone in 
the public battle over the responsibility for the failures of the 
war.  There is no doubt that the overwhelming majority of public 
opinion does not want Olmert and does not want Peretz.  The question 
is, to what degree it does not want them.  Will it go out into the 
streets?  Will it take to the barricades?  Judging by all the signs, 
the answer to these questions is negative.  Either the people prefer 
to let the political establishment take its course, or else they are 
sick of everyone.... Olmert has been preparing for the past two 
weeks for the counterattack.... If only Olmert had prepared for the 
war the way he prepared for the war over the report, said one of his 
associates, perhaps there would be no committee and no report.  If 
only." 
 
II.  "The Battle of His Life" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Ben Caspit wrote on page one of the 
popular, pluralist Maariv (4/30): "Today, Ehud Olmert is starting 
the battle of his life.  This is not even a trace of exaggeration. 
He has no intention of giving up. In meetings that he held over the 
past several days with his close associates, he sounded determined, 
aggressive, and combative.... Olmert has been making these very 
sharp statements in the direction of his deputy, Foreign Minister 
Tzipi Livni.  She will pay with her head, he says.  What she did to 
me over the past several weeks will not go away quietly.  Some of 
those close to him swear that immediately after Olmert survives the 
current adventure, he intends to remove Livni.  In other words: her 
head will roll.  A warning comment should be added to that 
statement.... It is not clear whether Olmert is surviving.... So 
much for his determination.  Behind closed doors, Olmert is wounded 
to his very soul.  He feels betrayed, deceived.... Livni herself has 
gotten cold feet over the past several days. The 'putsch' planned 
for the day that the report is presented was postponed.  Now they 
are waiting for what will happen on the street.  The public will 
have its say -- a large tsunami that will flood the government 
complex, blowing wind upon the embers of rebellion." 
III.  "No Confidence in Olmert" 
 
The independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized (4/30): "The 
vast majority of the Israeli public agreed with the justice of the 
government's decision not to show restraint following the Hizbullah 
attack on July 12 last year.  The military response ran into 
trouble, escalated and developed into a campaign resembling 
full-scale war.  The disappointing results of this campaign do not 
retroactively negate the correctness of the decision to change the 
policies of the previous governments led by Ehud Barak and Ariel 
Sharon: merely watching Hizbullah's military buildup and 
provocations, while doing nothing.  This situation, which evolved 
during the six years following the withdrawal from Lebanon, needed 
to be changed through a combined diplomatic and military effort.  It 
is not the logic behind the campaign that proved faulty, but its 
execution.... On the basis of what has been published about the 
interim report even before its official release, it seems that 
committee members did not discover any previously unknown facts that 
might alter the grim picture that the public drew of the war as it 
lengthened and proceeded to its frustrating and depressing end.  The 
public's conclusion was unequivocal -- that the country's security 
should not be left to the people who failed in the war, especially 
in view of the threats that still hover over us.  This prevailing 
mood is clearly reflected in all the polls, and it stands in stark 
contrast to Olmert's apparently strong position in the Knesset. 
Now, the Winograd Commission is essentially adding its findings to 
this general mood.  There is no reason to wait for the final report. 
 The interim report is sufficient in order to justify the national 
lack of confidence in Olmert." 
 
IV.  "A Watershed Event?" 
 
Deputy Managing Editor Anshel Pfeffer wrote on page one of the 
conservative, independent Jerusalem Post (4/30): "The polls show 
that disillusionment with the current government is all but 
universal, but where are the masses?.... Veteran activists complain 
about the public's apathy and claim that we have become an insular 
society in which few are prepared to act upon their convictions. 
They hark back to the days after the 1973 Yom Kippur War when the 
public anger at the great failure forced prime minister Golda Meir 
to resign.  Another historical fact less often mentioned is that 
despite the widespread criticism, Meir had gone on to win a general 
election two months after the war.  She resigned only three and a 
half months later, despite the fact that the Agranat Commission 
[that probed that war] had found her decisions during the war 
justified.  The public's anger was too great to withstand.  This 
time around, it's also too early to count out the Israeli public, 
but it might take a while." 
 
------------ 
¶2.  Mideast: 
------------ 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Prominent liberal novelist Amos Oz wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "The time has come to admit openly that 
we had a role in the flight of the Palestinian refugees." 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"To Deal with the Refugee Problem" 
 
Prominent liberal novelist Amos Oz wrote in the mass-circulation, 
pluralist Yediot Aharonot (4/29): "Every time we Israelis hear the 
'problem of the 1948 refugees' our stomach contracts with anxiety 
and refusal.  The refugee problem has become for us synonymous with 
the right of return, and the right of return is the destruction of 
Israel.  Perhaps the time has come for us to put our thoughts in 
order and distinguish between the refugee problem and what is known 
as the right of return.  Because the refugee problem can and must be 
solved by means other than a return of refugees into the State of 
Israel's borders of peace.  The demand for the return of the 
refugees into the territory of the State of Israel needs to be 
rejected because, if it is made manifest, we will have two 
Palestinian states here and not a single state for the Jewish 
people.... The time has come to admit openly that we had a role in 
the flight of the Palestinian refugees: albeit, not sole 
responsibility and not sole blame, but our hands are not clean.... 
The very fact of an Israeli admission to part of the blame for the 
flight of the Palestinian refugees, the very expression of 
willingness to shoulder part of the burden of finding a solution, 
could create a positive shockwave on the Palestinian side.  An 
emotional rupture of sorts that will help quite a bit with future 
dialogue.... Dealing with the roots of the problem will oblige 
addressing the fact that hundreds of thousands of Jews were uprooted 
from their homes in Arab countries and the conclusions that stem 
from that fact.  Both for moral reasons and for security reasons 
Israel needs to want to solve the problem of the Palestinian 
refugees from 1948.  We are talking about a financial effort that is 
going to have to be shouldered by the countries of the West, Israel 
and the rich Arab states.  Violence will decrease and the despair 
that engenders extremism will begin to diminish when the people who 
live in the camps of suffering and degeneration hear that their 
lives in misery are about to end.  And from Israel's perspective, 
even if we sign agreements with all of our enemies, as long as no 
solution is found to the plight of the refugees, we will not have 
quiet." 
 
--------- 
¶3.  Iran: 
--------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized: 
"Sanctions, not diplomacy, will be the primary means to avoid the 
twin dangers of a nuclear Iran and the necessity of military 
action." 
 
 
 
 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"Sanctions First" 
 
The conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized (4/30): 
"What is going on here?  Why is the US, which has refused to engage 
in direct talks until Iran suspends uranium enrichment, attending a 
high level meeting with Iran?  Why would the State Department, 
according to The Washington Post, be 'open to direct talks with... 
Iran over Iraq'?  Is this not like inviting the fox to discuss 
security in the hen house?  This is even more mysterious given White 
House criticism of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for traveling to 
Syria.... The mistake ... of engagement advocates is one of timing. 
In the case of Libya, it was obviously necessary to engage once 
sanctions had worked and the regime decided that its pursuit of 
nuclear weapons and support for terrorism were costing more than 
abandoning those policies.  It should be equally clear, with Iran 
forging ahead ever faster with its nuclear program, that now is the 
time to change Tehran's calculus through a dramatic tightening of 
international sanctions.  Europe, in particular, must catch up with 
the US in imposing financial and trade sanctions that have already 
been successful at increasing pressure on the regime.  Sanctions, 
not diplomacy, will be the primary means to avoid the twin dangers 
of a nuclear Iran and the necessity of military action." 
 
CRETZ