VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #0850/01 1061606
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161606Z APR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6774
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6581
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2495
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR 0538
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1574
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 2177
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000850 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM WINS BIG, BOOSTING CORREA 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ecuadorian voters approved President 
Rafael Correa's proposed national constituent assembly by 
78.1%, according to unofficial exit polls.  The "no" vote won 
just 11.5% support.  Partial official results confirm the 
same pattern (81.5% "yes" to 12.68% "no" with 58.58% of the 
vote counted as of April 16).  Final official results are 
expected in within days, and electoral authorities are 
expected to convoke within a month a 150-day campaign period 
for national elections to the constituent assembly to rewrite 
the constitution.  The results confirm strong public support 
for the change agenda promoted by a popular president and 
will challenge the opposition to promote a more positive 
agenda for the assembly.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Background:  Ecuador's voters took to the polls on 
April 15 to vote on the sixth referendum since 1979 (only two 
of the previous were approved).  Approval of the referendum 
would authorize elections for a national constituent assembly 
"with full powers" to rewrite the constitution and reform 
government institutions.  The government and most political 
parties campaigned in favor of a "yes" vote.  Two political 
parties (the Christian Democratic Union (UDC) and at the last 
moment, Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN) and a new university-based 
movement ("Libertario") supported the "no" vote.  The 
referendum was expected to reflect popular support for 
President Rafael Correa, currently at around 69%. 
 
Voting Process Normal 
 
¶3.  (U) As usual, some polling stations opened late 
throughout the country but in general voting took place 
without incident.  There were no allegations of fraud or 
other irregularities reported on voting day.  Members of the 
Correa government expressed confidence when voting that the 
"yes" vote would easily prevail.  Several opposition members 
of Congress stripped of their political rights by electoral 
authorities were turned away from the polling station. 
 
¶4.  (U) OAS international election observers and national 
observers confirmed that voting was free and fair.  OAS 
mission chief Dr. Enrique Correa expressed hope that the 
referendum results would help diminish levels of political 
belligerence which had undermined political stability in 
Ecuador over the past decade. 
 
Results Better than Expected 
 
¶5. (U) At the close of the polls Cedatos/Gallup reported the 
results of exit polls sampling 40,000 voters leaving voting 
stations, claiming at 2.5% margin of error.  Support was 
strongest in Quito (85%) and the highlands, weaker in 
Guayaquil (70%) and Napo province (57%).  Official results 
are expected within five days, and are expected to 
approximate these sample results.  The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal had already counted 58% of the vote by the morning 
of April 16, and is expected to report final results by April 
¶19.  Abstention rates for official results were within the 
normal range at approximately 30%, while the null (7.1% poll, 
5.06% official) and blank (3.3% poll, .75% official) were 
extraordinarily low. 
 
Reaction: Correa Conciliatory 
 
¶6.  (U) Correa welcomed the results as a historic benefit for 
the Ecuadorian people, not a popularity contest.  Looking 
ahead to assembly elections, he warned voters to "beware of 
wolves in sheep's clothing," and criticized the "no" campaign 
for not offering any positive proposal for reform.  Correa 
asserted he would never tolerate the "imposition of a foreign 
system of government in Ecuador" and insisted he had no 
intention of reversing dollarization during his four year 
term. 
 
Comment 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Results were surprising as much for the 
historically low rate of null and blank votes, as well as the 
somewhat lower than expected "no" vote.  Voter approval of 
the referendum boosts the Correa government and shifts the 
political spotlight to upcoming elections for an unbounded 
assembly, expected to take place sometime between late August 
and October 7. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) With public attention shifting to new elections, 
the ongoing dispute between Congress and the electoral 
authorities could be affected.  Overwhelming referendum 
results may prompt the timid and politicized Constitutional 
Court to rule definitively against the 57 dismissed 
congressional deputies.  Most voters clearly favored 
political and economic change over any reservations they may 
have over the combativeness and direction of the Correa 
government.  The key now will be to encourage the widest 
possible participation in the assembly elections and a more 
appealing, positive agenda from opposition sectors. 
 
JEWELL