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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHFR #1693/01 1171337
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271337Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6796
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE 1686
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG 0409
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001693 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: IN FIRST WEEK OF SECOND-ROUND 
CAMPAIGN -- ROYAL WOOING THE CENTRIST VOTE AS SARKOZY KEEPS 
HIS LEAD IN LATEST POLLS 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 1611 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR APRIL 
        27 
     ¶C. 2007 
 
PARIS 00001693  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  With a little more than a week to go, 
center-right Presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy continues 
to hold a distinct lead over center-left candidate Segolene 
Royal in all polls of second-round voter intentions, with 53 
percent for Sarkozy and 47 percent for Royal.  Sarkozy and 
Royal spent the first week of the second-round's two-week 
campaign wooing the 18 percent of voters who supported 
centrist candidate Francois Bayrou, well half of whom Royal 
needs to win to her side if she is to have any realistic 
chance of winning.  In his campaign appearances Sarkozy has 
underlined his inclusive vision of France; he spoke of France 
as a generous and vibrant "synthesis," and of his 
determination to unite the French.  The week has seen a 
steady defection of centrist parliamentarians to Sarkozy's 
camp.  Royal, for her part, openly pursued Bayrou and his 
voters, underlining the affinity between the social 
consciousness and institutional renewal in her program and 
Bayrou voters' convictions.  Bayrou held a press conference 
in which he refused to endorse either Sarkozy or Royal but 
was in fact much more anti-Sarkozy than anti-Royal, and 
announced the launch of a new, centrist, Democratic party 
aimed at carrying on his "new center" democratic reform 
agenda.  So far, Royal's moves to the center have not 
significantly changed her poll numbers, and Sarkozy remains 
the odds-on favorite to win the presidency May 6.  Barring a 
dramatic move by Bayrou to join forces with Royal or a 
catastrophic Sarkozy misstep, Royal's hopes may well hinge on 
her May 2 debate with Sarkozy on national television.  End 
Summary. 
 
FIRST-ROUND AFTERMATH 
--------------------- 
¶2.  (U) On April 22 (refs) first-round winner Union for a 
Popular Movement (UMP) president and former interior minister 
Nicolas Sarkozy received almost 11.5 million votes, 31 
percent of the total.  The second-place finisher, who will 
face off against Sarkozy in the second-round May 6, was 
Poitou-Charentes Region President Segolene Royal who received 
9.5 million votes, 25.9 percent of the total.  The 
third-place finisher, centrist, Union for French Democracy 
(UDF) leader Francois Bayrou received 6.8 million votes, 18.6 
percent of the total.  Simplifying somewhat, minor candidates 
of the right (including Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the 
extreme-right National Front (FN)) took 13.25 percent of the 
vote; minor candidates of the left took 11.5 percent of the 
vote.  Adding the great bulk of these far-right and far-left 
votes to the projected second-round results of, respectively, 
Sarkozy and Royal, makes clear that Royal has to garner the 
votes of well over half of those who voted for Bayrou to win 
on May 6.  The morning of April 23 she launched her effort to 
pull a critical mass of these centrist swing voters into her 
corner, while trying to avoid alienating her far-left 
supporters who currently support her as the alternative to 
Sarkozy. 
 
ROYAL THE "SOCIAL DEMOCRAT" 
--------------------------- 
¶3.  (U) In remarks to the press April 23, Royal "held out her 
hand," as she put it, to discussing "points of convergence" 
with Bayrou.  She placed two conditions on this proposed 
debate -- that its point of departure be her electoral 
platform (to cover her flanks among her Socialist supporters) 
and that it be a "public, transparent debate that happens 
before everybody's eyes."  In her campaign rallies and 
television appearances Royal pursued her determined signaling 
to Bayrou's supporters.  For example, in a prime time 
television appearances on April 25 and 26, a relaxed and 
voluble Royal pointedly evoked the advisability of "getting 
out of bloc against bloc" confrontation, clearly echoing 
Bayrou's most resonant campaign issue that partisan, 
left/right gridlock is part of the immobilism that hamstrings 
 
PARIS 00001693  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
France.  In addition, Royal made clear that she could 
incorporate centrist inspired "new ideas" into her 
"Presidential Pact," as she calls her electoral platform. 
She often used the phrase "social democracy," and used the 
word "socialist" only when referring by name to her party. 
Royal also stated that the she could very well include UDF 
ministers in her administration's cabinet. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Royal and Bayrou agreed to hold a public "debate" 
to review points of convergence between their electoral 
platforms, but France's equal time watchdog -- or 
self-imposed restrictions by the media interpreting electoral 
law for themselves -- could well prevent them from actually 
following through on their agreement.  It remains to be seen 
what effect, if any, Royal's unabashed wooing of Bayrou's 
centrist supporters will have on her final vote totals May 6. 
 Royal is walking the line of trying to attract centrist 
voters without alienating her left flank; Bayrou for his part 
is interested in preserving the viability of his own centrist 
movement for the future. 
 
SARKOZY THE "UNITER" 
-------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) For his part, and exhibiting all the tightly 
controlled scripting for which his campaign is justly famous 
-- and all the barely controlled activism for which he is 
justly famous -- Nicolas Sarkozy shot out of the starting 
blocks of the second-round campaign in his first-round 
victory statement the night of April 22.  "My mission now is 
to unite the French people," he said.  From different angles, 
Sarkozy has returned to this theme again and again in his 
campaign and TV appearances in past days.  At a large 
campaign rally in Rouen on April 24, for example, Sarkozy 
delivered a paean to France, its past history and current 
diversity, ending by proposing "that we all take on 
together...the challenge of globalization."  In TV 
appearances April 25 and 26, Sarkozy, while not neglecting to 
review and defend the range of his reform  proposals for 
France, also, and quite emotionally, evoked his serious 
preparation for the responsibilities he was seeking, and his 
commitment to "uniting the French." 
 
¶6.  (U) In dealing with the threat posed by a Bayrou-Royal 
union, Sarkozy has urged French voters to focus on the 
contest between the winners of the first round of votes, 
while quietly working to win over Bayrou deputies, if not 
Bayrou himself, to his side with the promise of creating a 
centrist "pole" within the center-right party. 
 
BAYROU BETS ON VIABILITY OF "NEW CENTER" 
---------------------------------------- 
¶7.  (U) At a press conference attended by 400 journalists on 
April 25, Bayrou refused to endorse either Sarkozy or Royal. 
Bayrou also announced the creation a new Democratic party, 
aimed at riding his "neither left nor right" political vision 
to success in the upcoming legislative elections (June 10 and 
17).  Without sparing Royal -- he focused on her economic 
policies' lack of realism -- Bayrou nonetheless personally 
attacked Sarkozy.  Bayrou said Sarkozy was prone to "using 
methods of intimidation," and that this way of exercising 
power was "a risk for democracy and our social fabric." 
According to a close Bayrou advisor, Sarkozy and Bayrou "have 
not spoken since 2004," and are "diametrically opposed 
characters" who view each other with deep mistrust.  While 
refraining from explicitly endorsing Royal, Bayrou made quite 
clear that he would not be voting for Sarkozy. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) So far, Royal's gesturing of her affinity to 
centrist voters and Bayrou's perceived "tilt" against Sarkozy 
has not been reflected in any polls of how Bayrou supporters 
plan to vote on May 6.  According to a major polling firm's 
sounding of Bayrou voters right after the first round, 54 
percent planned to vote for Sarkozy and 46 percent planned to 
vote for Royal.  As of April 27, about one-third of Bayrou's 
supporters are reportedly moving toward Sarkozy and one third 
toward Royal, with one third still undecided. 
 
SARKOZY MAINTAINS CLEAR LEAD 
 
PARIS 00001693  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
---------------------------- 
¶9.  (U) The latest polls of second-round voter intentions, 
across the board, all show Sarkozy with a decided lead over 
Royal.  For example, three major polls (IFOP, BVA and IPSOS), 
all taken this week after the first-round, all show Sarkozy 
with 53 percent of voter intentions and Royal with 47 
percent.  Only one poll, taken by the SOFRES polling 
organization on April 23 and 24, reflects a somewhat tighter 
race; this poll shows Sarkozy with 51 percent of first-round 
voter intentions and Royal with 49 percent.  The most 
significant polls will be those taken after the May 2 
televised debate between Sarkozy and Royal. 
 
¶10.  (U) Pollsters across France this week are hard pressed 
to suppress their gloating over the way their poll 
projections, in the week before the first round, were 
vindicated by the first-round's actual results.  If current 
projections hold -- and barring a decision by Bayrou to join 
forces with Royal, a serious misstep by Sarkozy, or a clear 
victory by Royal in her May 2 debate with Sarkozy -- Sarkozy 
would appear to be on track to win the May 6 election. 
 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON