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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHFR #1595/01 1101127
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O 201127Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6639
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE PRIORITY 1676
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG PRIORITY 0404
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001595 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION EVE: BETWEEN SARKOZY AND ROYAL 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 1566 
 
     ¶B. (B) PARIS 1491 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR 
        20APR07 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PARIS 00001595  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  Please treat accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  In the final days before the April 22 
first round of the French presidential election, the latest 
polls continue to predict that center-right UMP candidate 
Nicolas Sarkozy, followed by Socialist Party candidate 
Segolene Royal, will be the two victors for the May 7 
run-off.  Centrist UDF candidate Francois Bayrou and 
right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen are still placed third 
and fourth.  The well-respected SOFRES polling firm's latest 
sounding of opinion taken April 16-17 puts Sarkozy at 28.5 
percent of first-round voter intentions, Royal at 25 percent, 
Bayrou at 19 percent and Le Pen at 14 percent.  This 
one-two-three-four relative standing in the polls has not 
changed since mid-February, when Bayrou surged past Le Pen. 
That said, each of France's seven presidential elections so 
far has had its "surprise," usually a reversal of fortune for 
a leader in the polls.  The most likely "surprise" outcome 
for Sunday, according to polling reports, is a reversal of 
the order of the first two candidates.  A first-place finish 
for Royal -- or even a very close second-place finish -- 
could dramatically change the dynamic, and the momentum going 
into the second round.  The probability of centrist Bayrou 
qualifying for the second round appears to have diminished 
significantly in recent days. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY CONT'D:  France's eighth election of a 
president by universal suffrage has a number of 
distinguishing features.  The leading candidates represent a 
change of generation.  Both Royal and Sarkozy have challenged 
the status quo in their parties and in France.  Royal is 
France's first serious female presidential candidate.  One of 
the leading candidates -- Sarkozy -- is a polarizing figure, 
as feared as he is respected.  The political context is 
characterized by a shifting to the right of the political 
mainstream.  Sunday's outcome seems fairly clear, setting up 
a likely very close second round, with Royal and Sarkozy 
pulling out all the stops between April 22 and May 6.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
THE LINE-UP IN LATEST POLLS 
---------------------------- 
¶3.  (U) As France enters the final days of the first-round 
presidential campaign, polling data suggests that 
center-right UMP candidate Nicolas Sarkozy is still on track 
to win on April 22, with Segolene Royal likely to place 
second.  The well-respected SOFRES polling firm's latest 
sounding of opinion taken April 16 -17 puts Sarkozy at 28.5 
percent of first-round voter intentions, Socialist Party 
candidate Segolene Royal at 25 percent, centrist UDF party 
candidate Bayrou at 19 percent, and right-wing extremist 
Jean-Marie Le Pen at 14 percent.  Two other leading polls 
also taken earlier this week -- by the BVA and IPSOS firms -- 
reflect the same line-up with the following percentages: 
Sarkozy, 29 and 30; Royal, 25 and 23.5; Bayrou, 15 and 18.5; 
and Le Pen, 13 and 13.  Bayrou clearly remains the wild card; 
some polls show him going up, others going down.  For Bayrou 
to finish second, he would need to capture a large, probably 
unattainable, majority of the undecideds. 
 
BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY 
----------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) Given the notorious unreliability of French voters, 
many nonetheless continue to believe that France's 8th 
presidential election, like nearly all preceding ones, still 
holds a possible surprise.  In the very first election in 
1965, General De Gaulle was "humiliatingly" forced into a 
run-off by Socialist Francois Mitterrand when he unexpectedly 
failed to obtain 50 percent of the vote in the first round. 
In the most recent presidential election, in 2002, Socialist 
PM Lionel Jospin was unexpectedly eliminated by Le Pen.  This 
year's election features a number of "uncertainty factors" 
that could still affect the outcome: 
 
THE SARKOZY FACTOR 
 
PARIS 00001595  002.4 OF 003 
 
 
------------------ 
¶5.  (SBU) Sarkozy has emphasized issues such as immigration 
and opposition to Turkey's membership in the EU in an effort 
to draw Le Pen voters into the political mainstream.  At the 
same time, Bayrou has taken away political space in the 
center.  Sarkozy's strategy is consistent with the general 
view that the French electorate overall has itself moved to 
the right, but it also represents an attempt to deprive the 
far-right of its oxygen (much along the lines of Mitterrand's 
strategy vis-a-vis the Communists).  The shift itself, as 
well as Sarkozy's pugnacious and hyperkinetic personality, 
has served to limit his appeal despite an overall 
appreciation of his competence.  If, in addition,  far-right 
voters choose in the end to stay with Le Pen rather than vote 
for Sarkozy, Sarkozy's score in the first round would be 
insufficient to give him the strong first-place finish he 
seeks in order to build momentum going into the second round. 
 
THE ROYAL CALCULUS 
------------------ 
¶6.  (SBU) Royal has focused increasingly in the last week on 
the symbolism of electing a female president as well as the 
necessity of unifying the left in order to avoid a repeat of 
the 2002 first-round defeat of her party.  She has attempted 
to appeal to the center enough to win votes away from Bayrou 
and has highlighted Sarkozy's scariness in order to mobilize 
the left behind her as the only way to stop Sarkozy.  Fear of 
Sarkozy serves also as a justification for drawing away 
potential Bayrou voters who may support Bayrou's centrist 
views but believe he cannot ultimately win.  Moreover, French 
voters can choose change simply by voting for a woman. 
Royal's strategy appears to be paying off in the last days of 
the campaign, to the point where it is possible that she 
could still surprise everyone and come in first place in the 
first round.  Even if she ultimately places only second to 
Sarkozy, if she succeeds in closing the gap substantially 
between them, she could enter the second round as the 
candidate with momentum. 
 
BAYROU THE SPOILER? 
------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) Bayrou has continued to pound the left and the 
right, but in a manner aimed at increasing his attractiveness 
primarily to those uncomfortable with Sarkozy.  On the one 
hand, he genuinely appeals to those who are tired of 
left-right gridlock and are seeking a "third way" for dealing 
with France's challenges.  A number of analysts continue to 
insist that Bayrou still has a chance of edging out Royal and 
getting into the second round if he should surge in the 48 
hours preceding April 22.  But we see this as highly 
unlikely.  A key element in Bayrou's appeal was that he, not 
Royal, could defeat Sarkozy.  As Royal's fortunes have 
improved, and his standing declined, the "anyone but Sarkozy" 
rationale may be moving back in her direction. 
 
A DIFFERENT ELECTION 
-------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) This may not be the watershed election it was 
originally billed as, but it does have some distinguishing 
features.  For the first time, a woman has a clear chance to 
become president.  (It is not clear whether Royal's gender 
will ultimately work for or against her.)  One of the 
candidates is a polarizing figure; indeed, Sarkozy in effect 
has become the theme of the election.  Both Sarkozy and Royal 
represent a new generation of leaders.  Both can be seen as 
rebels in their own camps, shaking up the status quo.  On the 
other hand, specific foreign policy issues, including how to 
relaunch Europe following France's 2005 rejection of the EU 
constitutional treaty or relations with the U.S., have not 
featured prominently. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) We will only know in retrospect what this election 
really was about, and the first-round results could take on 
new significance two weeks later when the French have made 
their choice between the two finalists.  For now, we are 
looking at a Sunday election result that will likely set up a 
classic left-right confrontation, but with very non-classic, 
next-generation candidates.  The order in which these 
candidates -- Nicholas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal -- finish, 
and the relative strength of their showings, will have a 
 
PARIS 00001595  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
strong impact on the election of France's next president on 
May 6. 
 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON