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DE RUEHFR #1566/01 1081732
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY ADAADB4C MSI8947 611)
O 181732Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6587
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE PRIORITY 1670
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG PRIORITY 0398

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE,DRL/IL,INR/EUC,EUR/ERA,EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y--PARA 2, LINE 12--"1962" VICE "1969" 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: THE ABC'S OF FRANCE'S APRIL 22 AND MAY 6 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
 
PARIS 00001566  001.6 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  The French presidential election is a 
single, national election in two rounds; it is, above all, a 
personal election by universal, direct suffrage absent 
reference to party affiliation.  France's voters (except for 
the small portion that will use electronic voting machines) 
will choose by depositing a piece of paper bearing their 
preferred candidate's name into the ballot box at 56,000 
different polling stations.  The first round of the election 
will take place Sunday, April 22; the second round will take 
place Sunday, May 6.  A record 44.5 million citizens are 
registered to vote in this election, and a record turn-out -- 
possibly as high as 85 percent -- is anticipated.  Election 
results (barring near ties in vote totals) will be known by 
about 8 p.m. on each election day, extrapolated from the 
results at a representative set of polling stations. 
France's Constitutional Council will ratify the final results 
of each round.  The president-elect and the out-going 
president are free to arrange for the transfer of power 
anytime between the Constitutional Council's formal 
promulgation of the results of the May 6 second-round 
elections and the May 16 expiration at midnight of the 
outgoing president's term of office.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A SINGLE, NATIONAL AND PERSONAL ELECTION 
---------------------------------------- 
¶2. (U) French political operatives vaunt the "democratic 
directness and simplicity" of presidential elections in a 
centralized state such as France, as opposed to the 
complicated system in place in the United States.   This is 
so despite the fact that the election process features two 
rounds, a plethora of candidates in the first round (12 this 
year), and the complications of equal time provisions and 
campaign finance ceilings.  The features that the French 
identify as making their presidential election process 
distinctive are that it is "single, national and personal": 
single because election day is dedicated to deciding the 
occupant of a single, national  office (the presidency); 
national because the electorate is that of a single, national 
constituency (all French citizens, in France and abroad); and 
personal because it involves a rendezvous between an 
individual and the people, as intended by General De Gaulle, 
who changed the French constitution in 1962 to elect the 
president by "direct, universal suffrage." 
 
PROCEDURAL UNIFORMITY 
--------------------- 
¶3. (U) These features of France's presidential electoral 
process are reflected in the physical voting process.  The 
ballots only have the names of the candidates written on 
them, without any political affiliation.  The ballots -- 
hardly surprisingly in a highly centralized state with a bias 
towards imposing uniformity in the interest of promoting 
equality -- will be almost exactly the same throughout the 
56,000 polling places in metropolitan France, its overseas 
territories, and French consulates abroad.  (Three percent of 
voters will use electronic voting devices -- see below). 
 
RECORD REGISTRATIONS SUGGEST RECORD TURNOUT 
------------------------------------------- 
¶4. (U) Never have so many French been registered to vote. 
Almost 44.5 million citizens have signed up for the 2007 
presidential and legislative elections, an increase of 3.3 
million over the number of registered voters in the last 
presidential election year (2002), and the highest 
registration rate since the watershed presidential election 
of 1981.  Voter turnout in the first round of presidential 
elections had been steadily declining since 1974, with the 
abstention rate peaking at 28.4 percent of registered voters 
in 2002.  Analysts believe voters will turn out in record 
numbers this year, with the predicted abstention rate ranging 
from 15-20 percent for the first round. 
 
AMONG THE YOUNG AND THOSE LIVING ABROAD 
--------------------------------------- 
¶5. (U) This year there has been an exceptional surge in voter 
registration among young people living in poor, immigrant 
neighborhoods, an official Interior Ministry report notes. 
While much press coverage has focused on the possible impact 
of these first-time voters, urban youths among them, the 
largest percentage increase in fact occurred among French 
citizens living overseas.  According to Interior Ministry 
figures: 43,973,024 voters are registered in metropolitan 
France and its overseas territories, with an additional 
535,000 voters registered in consulates in foreign countries. 
 But the 535,000 figure does not take into account an 
 
PARIS 00001566  002.5 OF 003 
 
 
additional 285,000 voters who live overseas but are still 
carried on local registration rolls in France.  By these 
calculations, a total of 820,000 French voters live overseas 
in 2007, an increase of 160,000 ( 24 percent) over 2006. 
 
56,000 POLLING PLACES 
--------------------- 
¶6. (U) Voting in the first round will begin in the overseas 
French Territories in the western hemisphere on April 21, a 
day before the remainder of the French electorate begins 
voting on April 22.  Organized by the Ministry of the 
Interior, the voting will be held in some 56,000 local 
polling stations, each serving a maximum of 800-1000 
registered voters.  After providing proof of registration, 
voters receive an envelope and a ballot for each candidate 
(12 in the first round and 2 in the second).  They then 
proceed to a isolated voting booth where they place the 
ballot of their preferred candidate into the envelope. 
Voters then place the envelope into a ballot box which is 
under the constant supervision of election officials and 
political party observers.  Voters sign a list before exiting 
the polling station to prove they have voted. 
 
LIMITED ELECTRONIC VOTING 
------------------------- 
¶7. (U) This year marks the first trial of electronic voting 
in French presidential elections.  Electronic voting has been 
approved for towns with more than 3,500 registered voters. 
About 3 percent of the French electorate, or 1.5 million 
voters in 82 different localities, are expected to vote 
electronically in 2007.  However, both the centrist candidate 
Francois Bayrou and some Socialist Party politicians have 
called for a moratorium on voting electronically, citing 
risks of fraud and error. 
 
COUNTING THE VOTES 
------------------ 
¶8. (U) On election day the polling stations close at 6 or 8 
P.M. at the discretion of local officials.  Counting begins 
immediately thereafter, under the supervision of locally 
appointed commissions which include representatives from each 
candidate.  For towns with more than one polling station, a 
special committee centralizes the tallies and checks them 
against the lists of registered voters.  The local totals are 
then called in to the Interior Ministry where they are added 
to the national tally.  Local officials are banned from 
dealing with irregularities or complaints, and are also 
prohibited from releasing any results or projections until 
the polls have closed in all locations. 
 
UNOFFICIAL RESULTS STARTING AT 8 P.M. 
------------------------------------- 
¶9. (U) On election day French media outlets are prohibited 
from disseminating unofficial projections until after the 
polls close.  The applicable law prohibits "publication, 
commentary and dissemination by any means of any polls on the 
eve and on the day of the election."  However, estimates by 
polling organizations or purported leaks of the counts coming 
in to the Interior Ministry could begin circulating (on web 
sites based outside of France and by SMS text messages) hours 
earlier.  A number of well-known commentators have vowed to 
defy the law this year and post, on their political blogs 
based in France, the preliminary estimates circulating in 
media and political circles.  At 8 P.M. mainstream media will 
disseminate the first estimate of the national results.  This 
unofficial "exit poll" (compiled by public opinion survey 
companies) is normally very accurate, except in the case of a 
close race.  This year the Interior Ministry is expected to 
begin posting the official local results on its website at 
about 9 P.M.  All results are expected to have been tallied 
and posted by 3 A.M. the next morning.  The Interior Ministry 
will also disseminate, soon after 8 P.M., a tally of results 
from a group of selected polling places that model the 
electorate at large. 
 
OFFICIAL RESULTS FOR SECOND ROUND WITHIN DAYS 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶10. (U) France's Constitutional Council reviews and ratifies 
all election results; it is the final arbiter in all election 
disputes.  The Council is expected to publish a breakdown of 
the official results on its website by no later than 8 P.M. 
on Wednesday, April 25.  The official ballot for the second 
round of elections will be released on Friday, April 27. 
 
SAME PROCEDURES FOR SECOND ROUND 
 
PARIS 00001566  003.5 OF 003 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
¶11. (U) The second round of voting will begin in France's 
departments and territories in the western hemisphere on May 
5, but voters in France will go to the polls on Sunday, May 
¶6.  As with the first round, an unofficial exit poll will be 
released at 8 P.M. that night.  The Interior Ministry will 
then make an unofficial declaration of the winner on Monday, 
May 7.  The official winner must be declared by the 
Constitutional Council within four days of the election, that 
is, by Thursday, May 12. 
 
HANDOVER OF POWER 
----------------- 
¶12. (U) Article 6 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic 
reads "The President of the Republic is elected for five 
years by direct, universal suffrage."  One result of this is 
that the start of the incoming President's term is determined 
by the end of the outgoing President's term.  President 
Chirac's first term was officially declared ended as of 
midnight May 16, 2002 by the Constitutional Council when it 
announced the results of 2002's second round.  Five years 
later is midnight Wednesday, May 16, 2007.  The transfer of 
power between Chirac and his successor then must happen in 
the interim between the Constitutional Council's declaration 
of the second round winner (which it is required by law to 
declare within four days of the election) and the end of 
Chirac's term.  The incoming and outgoing presidents are free 
to arrange for the transfer of power between them anytime 
during that period.  Many observers suspect that the 
inauguration of the new president might take place over the 
week-end of May 12-13, but it could take place as late as 
Wednesday, May 16. 
 
INAUGURATING THE WINNER 
----------------------- 
¶13. (U) The inauguration consists of a brief ceremony at the 
Elysee Palace at which the election results are read out, 
pursuant to which the new president signs a decree beginning 
his or her term of office.   It is customary for the new 
president then to proceed to France's tomb of the unknown 
soldier at the Arc of Triumph, lay a wreath as Commander in 
Chief, and then return to the presidential palace via a small 
parade down the Champs-Elysees.  These inaugural ceremonies 
have not, in the past, included any role for high-level 
foreign government representatives. 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
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