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O 131445Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6470
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001491 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR SOCI ECON EUN FR EUN
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: WITH TEN DAYS TO GO - SARKOZY 
KEEPS STRONG LEAD IN POLLS 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 1386 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR 
        13APR07 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (U) With less than ten days remaining before the April 22 
first round of France's presidential elections, the relative 
standing of the leading candidates in the polls remains 
essentially unchanged from what is was mid-March (refs). 
Heading into the home stretch, former Interior Minister 
Nicolas Sarkozy maintains his lead over all rivals, as he has 
in all polls of first-round voter intentions since 
mid-January, and he now appears almost certain to make it 
into the second round.  Socialist candidate Segolene Royal is 
still second, but centrist Francois Bayrou remains close 
enough to overtake her.  Extreme right war-horse Jean-Marie 
Le Pen continues to trail behind the three leaders.  With no 
single issue dominating the campaign, persistent doubts about 
Sarkozy and Royal, even among many inclined to vote for them, 
continue to redound to Bayrou's benefit as a potential 
spoiler.  A Le Pen repeat of 2002 appears increasingly less 
likely given his apparent inability to make inroads among new 
voters.  All that said, the last week may yet have surprises 
in store.  End Summary. 
 
"OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN OPENS -- PUBLIC 
----------------------------------- 
INTERESTED BUT UNCONVINCED 
-------------------------- 
¶2. (U) As specifically laid out in France's election law, the 
presidential campaign entered its "official" period April 8. 
During this phase, equal media time for all candidates is 
strictly enforced (meaning that the eight minor candidates, 
who will likely garner about ten percent of the total vote, 
will nonetheless get two-thirds of the total air time).  The 
campaign ads of all twelve candidates (refs) are broadcast by 
France's public TV and radio networks.  In addition, even the 
country's tiniest villages are required to provide twelve 
uniform spaces for the campaign posters of each of the 
candidates. 
 
¶3.  (U) Levels of public interest in the election remain at 
record highs despite an oddly uneventful race, with the 
relative standing of the four key contenders remaining 
unchanged for over a month despite their frenetic 
campaigning.  Partly because of that, this high level of 
interest coexists with a sense of letdown, a feeling that the 
campaign has, so far, disappointed in that no single, 
dominant issue has emerged.  The public remains watchful, and 
not fully convinced, nagged by doubts about each of the 
leading candidates, even among those inclined to support 
them.  This hesitancy across a broad spectrum of voters has 
led to reports of unprecedented numbers of "undecided" 
voters.  In reality, the truly undecided are under ten 
percent of likely voters, not an unusually high number for 
this stage of a presidential race.  The "hesitant who might 
still change their mind" -- which has led some pollsters to 
posit that as many as "two fifths of likely voters remain 
undecided" -- are in fact unconvinced supporters of a 
preferred candidate, and will in all likelihood vote for that 
candidate on April 22. 
 
SARKOZY IN THE LEAD IN ALL POLLS 
-------------------------------- 
¶4.  (U) Nicolas Sarkozy continues to lead in all polls, with 
Segolene Royal placing second; Francois Bayrou comes in 
third, with Jean-Marie Le Pen still in the number four slot. 
Sarkozy has led in all polls since mid-January, when he 
officially became the nominee of the center-right Union for a 
Popular Movement (UMP) party.  Given the continuing spread 
between him in the others, the one projection for April 22 on 
which all observers agree is that -- barring some unforeseen 
reversal -- Sarkozy will make it into the second round, 
probably coming in first.  On a number of salient issues -- 
law-and-order, immigration, integration, national identity, 
and employment -- pollsters note that Sarkozy remains the 
most credible candidate. 
 
DUELING SCENARIOS 
----------------- 
¶5.  (U) Beyond the general consensus that Sarkozy will make 
it into the second round, there is little agreement about 
what will happen to the other candidates on April 22. 
 
PARIS 00001491  002 OF 002 
 
 
Observers remain divided over how much of a challenge the 
centrist, Union for French Democracy's (UDF) Bayrou presents 
to the Socialist Party's (PS) Royal.  Some are partial to the 
scenario that Royal will barely squeak in ahead of Bayrou, as 
strong showings by Bayrou and Le Pen reduce the first-round 
vote shares of both the ultimate winners to under a quarter 
of the electorate each.  Others believe that continuing 
doubts about Sarkozy and Royal will influence disaffected 
voters on the left and right enough to put Bayrou in second 
place.  Still others argue that the sheer orneriness of 
French voters is such that they will deliberately vote in 
large numbers for the leader of the National Front (FN) 
party, Jean-Marie Le Pen.  At this stage, a surge to Bayrou 
appears more likely than one to Le Pen, given polling 
evidence that Le Pen is not succeeding as well as the others 
in attracting new voters. 
 
¶6.  (U) That said, the next week could yet hold last-minute 
surprises.  Former Socialist PM Michel Rocard -- without 
making clear whether his main purpose was to stop Sarkozy or 
to use Royal's weakness to push the Socialist Party more to 
the center -- called on Royal and Bayrou to form an alliance. 
 Other last-minute maneuverings may well follow. 
 
LATEST POLLS 
------------ 
¶7.  (U) In a poll taken this week (April 9 - 11) by the 
well-respected IPSOS polling organization, Sarkozy leads at 
29.5 percent of first-round voter intentions.  (Note: Vote 
totals above twenty-five percent are very strong showings in 
first rounds of French Presidential elections. End Note.) 
Royal is second with 24 percent of first round voter 
intentions, followed by Bayrou at 19 percent, with Le Pen 
bringing up the rear with 14 percent.  The findings of this 
IPSOS poll track closely with those of other major polls. 
Indeed, the average of the six leading polling organizations 
puts Sarkozy at 28 percent, Royal at 24 percent, Bayrou at 19 
percent and Le Pen at 14 percent. 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON