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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001832 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: UPCOMING BY-ELECTION ON KENYA'S COAST 
 
REF: NAIROBI 1792 
 
¶1. Summary:  The Magarini by-election features ten contending 
parties.  The putative incumbent, whose seat was vacated by a 
court order finding his election in 2002 fraudulent, 
represents a Coast Province party that advocates 
decentralization and favored treatment of "indigenous" 
residents over those hailing from elsewhere in Kenya.  He is 
backed by the pro-government NARC-Kenya party, which declined 
to run a candidate against him.  He is likely to win.  The 
U.S. Mission will field an observation team well-briefed on 
the abuses that marred the July 2006 by-elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) is organizing a 
by-election on 14 May for the parliamentary seat in the 
Magarini constituency in Kenya's Coast Province.  The 
by-election results from a court challenge to the December 
2002 election of Harrison Kombe of the Shirikisho party of 
Kenya.  Nearly four and a half years into Kombe's five year 
tenure as a Member of Parliament (MP), the courts determined 
that his election was so marred by fraud committed by his 
supporters that the seat must be recontested.  However, the 
court did not hold him personally responsible for electoral 
malfeasance or otherwise disqualify him from recontesting. 
Since the general election is expected in December 2007, the 
victor of the 14 May by-election will be in office less than 
seven months before the seat is again contested. 
Constituency voters complain that the courts moved too slowly 
on the fraud case and that a by-election so soon before a 
general election is a pointless expense.  However, the 
by-election is required under present electoral law. 
 
Portrait of Magarini Constituency 
 
¶3. Magarini constituency is located along the coast north of 
Malindi and south of the mouth of the Tana river.  It is 
overwhelmingly populated by the Giriama clan of the Mijikenda 
people.  (The Mijikenda, like the Luhya and the Kalenjin, are 
a collection of very loosely affiliated ethnic communities. 
They are not a homogenous group like the Kikuyu or the Luo.) 
Traditional religious beliefs are quite strong among the 
Giriama, although many at least nominally identify with 
Christianity.  The small town of Mambrui, just over the 
constituency border from Malindi, has a mostly Muslim and 
non-Giriama population.  Most political parties contesting 
the by-election have their constituency headquarters in 
centrally-located Gongoni town.  There are about 42,000 
registered voters in the constituency. 
 
The Nine Contenders 
 
¶4. Nine political parties have registered with ECK to contest 
the parliamentary seat.  They are: 
 
-- Shirikisho Party of Kenya (SPK).  Harrison Kombe will seek 
to retain his seat, which is SPK's sole seat in parliament. 
SPK is a coastal party advocating decentralization, 
especially local election of provincial and district 
commissioners rather than their appointment by the central 
government.  "Shirikisho" means "federation" in ki-Swahili. 
But SPK goes beyond mere decentralization to advocate 
"majimboism," an independence era ideology that seeks to 
restrict access to land, government jobs and even residency 
to those indigenous to the region.  Kenyans from outside the 
coast would require residency permits (internal visas) to 
reside within the province.  In fact, SPK supporters told 
PolCouns that they would prefer keeping non-Giriama fellow 
coastals out of their constituency as well.  All of this 
would require drastic changes to Kenyan law and the country's 
constitution.  While Kenya has its share of ethnic xenophobes 
throughout the country, we do not sense that there is 
significant support for SPK's program outside its Giriama 
base.  Much of the rhetoric of SPK supporters is specifically 
anti-Kikuyu.  This is ironic given that Kombe consistently 
supported Kibaki's Kikuyu-dominated government during his 
time in parliament.  Kibaki's supporters in the NARC-Kenya 
leadership returned the favor by opting not to contest the 
constituency despite having on hand a very popular local 
candidate (see below).  Most observers of Coast Province 
politics favor Kombe to win the constituency, but coast 
politics are unusually fluid this year so his election is far 
from assured.  Stil, he has the backing of most 
pro-government Mijikenda leaders, although some are 
supporting his rival, Franco Esposito (see below).  NARC-K 
and other pro-government luminaries are expected to campaign 
for him. 
 
-- Kenya National Democratic Alliance (KENDA).  Franco 
Esposito, a naturalized Kenyan of Italian origin and 
successful businessman active in the coastal tourism 
industry, defected from (pro-Kibaki) NARC-Kenya to KENDA once 
 
NAIROBI 00001832  002 OF 003 
 
 
the leadership of NARC-Kenya instructed him to sit out the 
contest.  While no longer a NARC-Kenya member, he continues 
to state that if elected he will support the Kibaki 
administration and Kibaki's re-election.  Esposito is highly 
popular in the region.  He has taken a Giriama name and 
supports many community development projects in the area.  He 
won the NARC-Kenya caucus vote to represent the party in the 
by-election, and then was told to stand down in favor of SPK 
by Vice President Awori.  NARC-Kenya has two prominent 
factions.  One favors grassroots primary elections to 
determine parliamentary candidates and a strategy of building 
up a national party that can win national power and govern 
alone.  The other faction prefers candidate selection by the 
party leadership and coalition politics.  The second camp is 
in the ascendancy and has opted to dump the popular Esposito 
in favor of Kombe.  KENDA was recently taken over by Kamlesh 
Pattni, the former Chairman of Goldenburg International, the 
infamous "paper company" behind a series of grand scale 
corruption schemes that did so much damage to the Kenyan 
economy in the 1990s. 
 
-- National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).  Samuel Nzai will run 
on behalf of the party that President Kibaki formally adheres 
to, but which has been abandoned by him and his supporters in 
favor of NARC-Kenya.  NARC is headed by Health Minister 
Charity Ngilu, who, although a member of the government, has 
severely critized her fellow ministers and publicly supports 
the ODM-K presidential aspirant Raila Odinga. 
 
-- Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K). Amason Kingi 
will represent the opposition coalition party considered the 
greatest threat to Kibaki's re-election ambition on the 
national level, but not a strong player in this constituency. 
 Still, leading ODM-K figures are likely to campaign for 
Kingi. 
 
-- Six micro-parties will contest the by-election: Republican 
Party of Kenya, Jeremiah Kazungu (ditched ODM-K when he did 
not get the nomination); Safina, Jillo Onotto (ditched NARC-K 
when he did not get the nomination); New Democrats Party, 
Peter Ziro (ditched SPK when he did not get the nomination); 
KADDU, David Noti Kombe (similar ideology to SPK, but 
pro-opposition, Kombe was the former KANU MP for Magarini); 
Restoration Democrats Party of Kenya, Lucy Muthoni Ng'ang'a; 
and Kenya Patriotic Trust, Pastor James Ngala Shida. 
 
Election Observation Plans 
 
¶5.  The U.S. Mission will field a team of observers for the 
by-election, including Kenyan colleagues from the region. 
The U.S. team will be well briefed on the electoral abuses 
that marred the July 2006 by-elections as well as those that 
occured in Magarini in 2002.  Other missions from donor 
countries will also field observers.  The effort is 
coordinated by the Like-Minded Donors group comprising most 
of the missions resident in Nairobi that are both democratic 
and have substantial aid programs.  Kenyan and international 
NGOs also plan observer missions, as does the Human Rights 
Commission, which documented and publicized electoral 
malfeasance during the July 2006 by-elections.  The ECK 
welcomes observers and has raised no bureacratic hurdles to 
their registration.  Christine Karani, ECK's District 
Coordinator for Malindi District (including Magarini 
constituency) told PolCouns that she and her staff are well 
aware of the electoral abuses that marred the 2002 election 
in Magarini and are prepared to thwart attempts to repeat 
that history (see reftel). 
 
Comment: Kenya's Democracy, a Work in Progress 
 
¶6.  The Magarini by-election illustrates some positive 
features of Kenya's democracy, as well as some "areas for 
improvement."  The fact that the courts reversed the election 
of a pro-government MP based on evidence of electoral fraud 
is a positive development.  This would not have happened 
under independent Kenya's two previous regimes.  The fact 
that it took the courts four years to achieve this feat is 
unfortunate, but the court systems of many mature democracies 
are no more efficient than is Kenya's.  Casual party 
switching and opaque party nominations indicate a continuing 
lack of internal democracy among Kenyan parties.  Parties are 
typically owned by the leaders, not by the grassroots 
supporters.  We are confident that this will improve in time 
as Kenyans adjust themselves to multiparty politics with 
considerably more democratic space than they have ever known 
before. 
 
¶7. Coast Province, along with Western Province, is among the 
regions most "in play" for the December 2007 general 
election.  Mijikenda politicians have traditionally alligned 
themselves with the wining national team and received a 
greater share of top government jobs than their numbers would 
 
NAIROBI 00001832  003 OF 003 
 
 
warrant, but this time around their political loyalties are 
fluid and divided.  The fact that Vice President Awori became 
personally involved in determing who the government would 
back in the race is an indicator of the importance the 
political class gives to this contest.  Magarini voters are 
likely to be visited by many of the country's top political 
figures.  Balmy Magarini in May 2007 will resemble in that 
respect frigid New Hampshire in February 2008. 
 
 
RANNEBERGER