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DE RUEHNR #1789/01 1131409
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P 231409Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9215
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9268
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5240
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4672
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2010
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2222
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2179
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001789 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KE
SUBJECT: POLITICS IN LUOLAND 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 321 
 
     ¶B. 06 NAIROBI 5393 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The perception that the central government 
is actively opposed to the interests of Nyanza Province's Luo 
community and its leaders motivates many Luos to stand firmly 
behind "their man" Raila Odinga.  Support for Odinga's ODM-K 
is widespread in Nyanza, but a pile-up in identification card 
issuance by the central government threatens to 
disenfranchise thousands of would be ODM-K voters in the next 
election, raising the risk of conflict. END SUMMARY. 
 
Self-Image: A Community of Victims 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Luos, comprising an estimated 14 percent of 
Kenya's population primarily centered in Nyanza province, are 
a strongly unified community held together by a common 
language, customs, and history, including a self-image as a 
community victimized by an unjust state.  They form a unified 
voting block which is staunchly supportive of Luoland's local 
hero Raila Odinga.  During several conversations with poloff, 
Nyanza Luos expressed their strong support for ODM-K and 
Odinga in particular.  There is a strong perception among the 
populace that the central government, where Luos are 
under-represented, has systematically neglected the area for 
political reasons, denying it much-needed development 
assistance and improvements to infrastructure. 
 
Local Near-Royals Offer Hope 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) It is difficult to substantiate claims that Nyanza 
province, a traditional stronghold of the opposition, has 
been deliberately neglected by the central government and 
those in power.  Nevertheless, the perception of this 
ill-treatment is very real, as illustrated in numerous 
conversations with Nyanza Luos, causing most people to pin 
their hopes on a local leader.  Odinga, the savvy political 
heir of the almost royal Odinga family, offers himself as 
Nyanza's chosen one.  He frequently plays to the crowd 
reinforcing the perception that Luos can only rely on each 
other for assistance and not, as has been amply demonstrated, 
the central government dominated by other tribes.  (Note: The 
November 2005 constitutional referendum had a polarizing 
effect on the country, pitting GEMA (Kikuyu and ethnic 
cousins) and non-GEMA against each other.  In the case of the 
Luos, this divide is part of a larger one, that between two 
socio-linguistic groups, the Bantu (GEMA and others) and the 
Nilotic (the Luo and their distant cousins).  Kenyans voted 
largely along these lines.  Luos voted overwhelming against 
the proposed constitution, which was viewed as advancing 
Bantu/GEMA/Kikuyu interests at the expense of other groups. 
They also saw the document as a double-cross of their hero, 
Odinga (merely the latest double-cross of a prominent Luo), 
who was meant according to the pre-2002 deal with Kibaki to 
get the "strong Prime Minister" position in the planned new 
constitution, a position Kibaki's inner circle edited out of 
the draft before the voters saw it.  End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (U) Given this history, the vast majority of Luos place 
their faith in Odinga to lead them to\ 
]Q-;QQTt2Q Qyanza will 
follow his lead. 
 
Don't Bother Challenging Odinga Here 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While there is some discomfort with or resentment 
over the dominance of the Odinga family (especially Raila and 
his late father Oginga Odinga) over Luo politics, attempts to 
present an alternative choice to voters have not been very 
successful.  Fellow Luo and Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju 
attempted to provide Luos with an alternative to Odinga style 
politics when he announced the creation of the People's 
Progressive Party in autumn 2005.  Despite some concern 
within the Luo community over what some say is the 
heavy-handedness of Odinga's political machine, the People's 
Progressive Party attracted few adherents, and even fewer 
voters supporting its platform in favor of the proposed 
constitution.  (Note: a District Officer for Kisumu Rural, 
who was previously assigned in Bondo and Suba Districts, 
described all three Nyanza Province districts to poloff as 
"fiercely loyal" to Odinga.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  "Outside" challengers fare even more poorly.  In 
Kisumu, the capital of Luoland, poloff one day observed an 
enormous newly-erected billboard of Coast Province 
presidential hopeful Najib Balala at one of the major traffic 
intersections.  On a return visit two days later, the 
billboard was gone.  The billboard was removed so quickly 
that when poloff queried a local contact who frequently 
travels that intersection about the sign, she said she had 
never seen it. 
 
Voter Registration: SNAFU or Plot? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The perception that the central government seeks to 
marginalize Nyanza's population could magnify the effects of 
the abysmal turnout in the recently concluded voter 
registration campaign.  In Kisumu, as elsewhere in Nyanza, 
the number of newly registered voters fell far short of 
expectations.  The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) 
estimated that 95,000 people were expected to register during 
the drive, a number based on population growth figures and 
previous voter registration drives.  Three weeks into the 
four-week campaign, just three percent of that number had 
registered. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The meager number of new voters is not the result 
of a lack of civic interest, the Kisumu District Election 
Coordinator (KDEC) assured poloff, but rather results from a 
significant delay in the issuance of national identification 
cards from the central government, which are necessary to 
register to vote.  According to the KDEC, the central 
government agency responsible for issuing identification 
cards was overwhelmed by the sheer number of nation-wide 
requests for identification cards.  The KDEC reported that 
while the process should take 90 days, many people have been 
waiting for over a year to receive their IDs.  Significant 
numbers of youth and other potential new voters risk being 
disenfranchised in the upcoming elections due to ID issuance 
problems. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Delays in ID card issuance are reported throughout 
Kenya, but the local perception of central government neglect 
and the suspicion, voiced on a number of occasions to poloff, 
that the central government is deliberately delaying ID 
applications from opposition strongholds, could mean trouble. 
 The populace is quick to assume nefarious machinations are 
driving the delay in national ID cards.  Should an 
influential figure such as Odinga accuse the government of 
such a scheme, even without proof, violent conflict might 
result. 
RANNEBERGER