VZCZCXRO1270
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0354/01 1201436
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301436Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5955
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1542
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000354 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: POLLING RESULTS: LUKASHENKO SUPPORT REMAINS HIGH IN WAKE OF 
ENERGY CRISIS 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. According to latest polling results of independent pollster 
Andrey Vardomatskiy, Lukashenko's public support remains at 51.3% 
while de facto coalition leader Milinkevich's support rating 
dwindles to 4.0%.  A large portion of respondents approve of 
Lukashenko's handling of the gas-oil conflict and doubt that the 
rise in gas prices will have a significant effect on the economy. 
Even those who disagree with the president's handling of the crisis 
doubt a significant downturn in the economy would affect his hold on 
power.  Interest in the EU continues to rise.  End summary. 
 
¶2. On April 24, Andrey Vardomatskiy, Director of the independent 
polling service NOVAK, delivered to Poloff the results of his March 
18-25 polling.  NOVAK interviewed 1,095 Belarusians in various 
regions and cities of Belarus. 
 
Continued Support for Lukashenko and His Regime 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. According to NOVAK, Lukashenko's public support rating remains at 
51.3%, while his closest competitors, de facto coalition leader 
Aleksandr Milinkevich and jailed presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Kozulin, enjoy single digit support ratings (4.0% and 2.2%, 
respectively).  Many Belarusians support Lukashenko, despite the 
recent Russian-Belarusian energy crisis, and predict support for the 
leader will not waiver, even if the economy suffers: 
 
 
"Overall, how would you assess the political situation in Belarus? 
It is..." 
                                  January    March 
 
Safe                                7.4(%)   12.7 
Peaceful                           67.8      67.8 
Strained/Tense                     19.5      13.9 
Critical/explosively dangerous      0.9       0.9 
Undecided/no answer                 4.3       4.6 
 
"With which opinion about President Lukashenko do you rather 
agree?" 
 
Respected leader                                44.9(%) 
Last dictator in Europe                         10.8 
Single real friend of Russia                    12.7 
Cunning and insidious/capable of anything       13.8 
Hard to say                                     14.5 
 
"How right or wrong were the actions of the Belarusian President 
during the "oil-gas" conflict?" 
 
Absolutely right       21.9(%) 
Rather right           38.5 
Rather wrong           15.5 
Absolutely wrong        7.4 
Hard to say            15.8 
 
"Will Lukashenko remain in power following the economic consequences 
of the conflict?" 
 
Yes            81.9(%) 
No              5.7 
Hard to say    11.0 
 
¶4. Forty-five percent of respondents predict that the Belarusian 
economy will suffer "severely" and the standard of living will drop 
considerably as a result of the energy crisis.  Roughly 44% agree 
that there will be certain difficulties, but concluded that there 
will not be any significant consequences to Belarus' economy. 
Belarusians are split on how the consequences of the conflict will 
affect the people's support of the GOB: 
 
"How will Belarusians' attitudes to the current regime change in 
consequence of the conflict?  Confidence will..." 
 
Definitely increase     10.6(%) 
Rather increase         28.0 
Rather decrease         30.3 
Definitely decrease      9.7 
Hard to say             20.5 
 
"Do you think Belarus faces the problem of shortage of energy 
resources today?" 
 
Certainly yes    22.9(%) 
Rather yes       35.2 
Rather no        23.2 
 
MINSK 00000354  002 OF 003 
 
 
Certainly no      5.0 
Hard to say      13.2 
 
Union with EU vs. Russia 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. Approximately 33.5% of respondents think that citizens would live 
better if Belarus integrated with the EU, whereas 46.7% believe 
citizens would live better in a union with Russia or Ukraine. 
However, an increasing amount of people support integration in the 
EU and oppose unifying with Russia: 
 
"If the referendum on Belarus joining the EU were held today, would 
you personally voter "for" or "against?" 
 
                                  January   March 
 
For integration into the EU        35.7(%)  39.2 
Against integration with the EU    30.5     29.4 
 
"Do you think Belarus should intensify the process of rapprochement 
with the EU?" 
 
Yes            49.7(%) 
No             30.6 
Hard to say    18.1 
 
"If the referendum on unification of Belarus and Russia into a 
single state were held today, would you personally vote "pro" or 
"contra?" 
                         January    March 
 
Against unification       40.1(%)   46.4 
For unification           35.2      30.7 
Would not vote            10.6       9.2 
Undecided/no answer       12.8      13.8 
 
"Do you think the integration process between Belarus and Russia 
should be intensified?" 
 
Yes           46.4(%) 
No            30.7 
Hard to say   13.6 
 
"Which of the following variants of Russia-Belarus unification do 
you personally like most?" 
 
Belarus becomes an oblast of Russia               5.2(%) 
A union similar to the EU                       37.6 
Remain as is according to current Union Traty   26.1 
Against unification                             19.4 
Hard to say/no answer                           11.7 
 
Standard of Living RemainsStable 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. Te consequences of the Russian-Belarusian energy conlict, 
according to those polled, have not affectd the average Belarusian 
citizen.  According to OVAK's polling, 61.7% of respondents believe 
tha Belarus' economic situation has remained the same whereas only 
21.8% believe that it has worsened: 
 
"How would you assess Belarus' current economicsituation?" 
 
                     January    Marh 
 
Very Good              1.2(%)    1.0 
Good                 16.2      17.3 
Fair                 58.3      58.6 
Bad                   17.5      17.7 
Very bad               2.6       1.4 
Cannt say/No answer   1.3       4.1 
 
¶7. Approximatel 70% of those polled said their household's materil 
situation remained the same, which 63% describd as "fair." 
Eighty-one percent doubted mass actions protesting price increases 
and the fall of th standard of living would take place in their 
ton/district and an equal amount claimed they would ot participate 
in such actions should they occur 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. The increase in energy prices has not had a significant effect on 
Belaruians' standard of living, but Belarusians have yetto pay for 
gas at the rate Russia is charging th GOB.  Accordingly, many 
respondents continue to support the president, even if they disagree 
with his handling of the energy crisis.  Although respondents claim 
 
MINSK 00000354  003 OF 003 
 
 
that they would not participate in any demonstrations protesting 
economic problems or a drop in their standard of living, or that the 
president will remain in power in the event of such a crisis, we 
will see how attitudes change when the cash-strapped GOB is unable 
to sustain key social and economic benefits to voters. 
 
STEWART