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O 030851Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5947
INFO RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MANILA 001073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR INR/B AND EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR RP
SUBJECT:  The 2007 Philippine Senate Race 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary and comment:  The nationwide May 14 elections for 
all members of the lower house of Congress and for virtually all 
governors and local officials also include the races for twelve 
seats in the 24-member Senate.  Predictions vary widely, with the 
Administration boasting it will win all twelve seats, the Opposition 
making similar claims, and many observers expecting a 50/50 split. 
The Senate has faced much criticism over its perceived failure to 
pass legislation, especially many in the once-pro-Administration 
Senate withdrew their full support from President Arroyo following 
the July 2005 political turmoil.  Control of the Senate would be 
imperative to the President if ever the lower house passed an 
impeachment motion, as it failed to do in 2005 and 2006.  The 
campaign will be lively but the result is most likely to be a mixed 
bag.  End Summary and comment. 
 
--------------- 
The games begin 
--------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Campaigning has begun in the May 14 nationwide elections, 
which includes half of the current Senate, or twelve seats.  Six 
incumbents are seeking a second and final six-year term, while six 
former Senators seek comebacks, including one putschist facing coup 
charges anew.  There are five relatively young term-limited 
Congressmen who aspire to the Upper House.  A 
Representative-turned-Cabinet Secretary is also campaigning, while 
two provincial governors are banking on name recall to shift to a 
national legislative office.  Several are braving the national 
campaign trail for the first time:  a Philippine bar topnotcher -- 
whose father is currently a Senator; two movie actors; a junior 
military officer also facing coup charges; a Muslim sultan; and, the 
widow of a 2004 presidential candidate. 
 
¶3.  (U)  Frontrunners, among a total of 37 official candidates, have 
joined two major coalition slates, which are a confusing mix of 
critics and cronies of President Arroyo and ousted President Joseph 
"Erap" Estrada (still on trial for plunder): the pro-Administration 
"TEAM Unity" and the pro-Estrada "Genuine Opposition."  Given the 
need to campaign for votes nationwide - a peculiarity of the 
Philippine system - the races will be expensive.  Few observers 
expect the most prominent candidates to stay anywhere within the 
prescribed limits on spending per voter.  The campaign season has 
already been deadly, with murders so far of at least two candidates 
on the local level, but none yet on the national level. 
 
---------- 
TEAM Unity 
---------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  The pro-Arroyo TEAM (Together Everyone Achieves More) Unity 
(TU) has not performed especially well in early poll surveys, 
leading observers initially to conclude that the Administration had 
virtually surrendered the Senate to the opposition, while 
concentrating instead on keeping a sufficient majority in the lower 
House again to block expected new impeachment motions.  At an April 
2 national meeting of the dominant Lakas CMD party -- titularly 
headed by President Arroyo, along with former President Ramos and 
House Speaker De Venecia -- pro-Administration forces nonetheless 
boasted that they might win all twelve Senate seats. 
 
¶5.  (U)  TEAM Unity has the strong advantage of a well oiled and 
funded party machinery organized from the national down to the local 
level.  Lakas has maintained its strategic alliances with other 
major parties, including Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (KAMPI) or 
"Partner of the Free Filipino" (founded by President Arroyo), the 
Liberal Party-Atienza wing, the Nationalist People's Coalition 
(NPC), and Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) or "Fight of the 
Democratic Filipino."    Also, the team has a strong field network, 
controlling a majority of local government seats. 
 
¶6.  (U)  To its further advantage, TU launched its nationwide 
campaign amid the highest business confidence in the country since 
2001, as reported by the Central Bank.  TEAM Unity Spokesman Ace 
Durano, concurrently Tourism Secretary, claimed that even American 
investors have given their "vote of confidence" in the 
Administration by pledging at least US$3 billion in investments this 
year as a result of improved fiscal climate and business optimism in 
the country. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Individual candidates on TEAM Unity include: 
 
-  Edgardo "Ed" Angara, incumbent Senator, LDP.  Age 72, born 
September 4, 1934 in Quezon Province.  Although head of the 
opposition party LDP,  Angara has pursued a policy of critical 
collaboration with the Arroyo Administration and in 2005 even 
contemplated joining the Cabinet.  He is among the few in the Senate 
who supports "charter change" (Constitutional revision) via 
 
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convening Congress as a constituent assembly.  He voted in favor of 
maintaining U.S. bases, the Anti-Money Laundering Act, and the 2007 
Human Security Act.  A champion of education, senior citizen 
welfare, and agricultural modernization, Angara ranked ninth in the 
2001 senatorial race.  His current survey ratings place him in the 
same vicinity so far; 
 
-  Joker Arroyo, incumbent Senator, KAMPI.  Age 79, born January 5, 
1928 in Naga City, Camarines Sur.  The well-known human rights and 
anti-corruption advocate ranked fifth in the 2001 Senate race under 
the pro-Administration coalition slate.  He served as a Congressman 
from Makati City 1992- 2001, and was the lead prosecutor in the 
failed Estrada impeachment trial in 2000.  He turned critical of the 
Arroyo Administration when the election fraud controversy involving 
President Arroyo erupted in July 2005.  The "maverick" Senator -- 
who also criticized the Administration on major issues including the 
declaration of a state of emergency in February 2006, restraints on 
the media, and charter change -- decided nonetheless at the last 
minute to seek reelection under the pro-Administration ticket. 
Defending his decision, he explained that the Administration had 
never undermined his independence; 
 
- Michael "Mike" Defensor, Lakas.  Age 37, born June 30, 1969 in 
Manila.  Defensor gave up his Quezon City seat in Congress first to 
become Environment Secretary, then housing czar, and finally 
Presidential Chief of Staff to President Arroyo.  He is the nephew 
of current Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, chair of the Senate 
Foreign Relations Committee.  Among the President's staunchest 
allies, he strongly defended her against opposition allegations of 
election fraud during the 2004 presidential elections.  He was one 
of the complainants in the impeachment case against then-President 
Estrada but agreed to (unsuccessful) proposals for the latter's 
release on recognizance.  He continues to reach out to the 
opposition and advocate national reconciliation.  He ranked 
fourteenth or fifteenth in surveys for this race; 
 
- Jamalul Kiram III, Partido Demokratiko Sosyalista ng Pilipinas 
(PDSP).  Age 68, born July 16, 1938 in Sulu Province.  One of the 
claimants to the Sultanate of Sulu in Mindanao, Kiram is the lone 
Muslim candidate in the race and was chosen for the perceived 
influence he wields over the Islamic community.  He bats for 
Mindanao development and Muslim representation in the Senate.  The 
last Muslim Senator was Mrs. Santanina Rasul, who served in 
1987-1995; 
 
- Vicente "Vic" Magsaysay, Lakas.  Age 67, born January 20, 1940 in 
Zambales.  He served repeatedly as Governor of Zambales Province: 
1998-2007; 1980-1986; 1978; 1971; and, 1967.  Although lacking in 
national exposure, he has the advantage of name recall.  Both his 
late uncle, President Ramon Magsaysay, and his cousin, outgoing 
Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr., were widely popular and highly 
respected politicians.    He advocates strengthening local 
governments through more effective decentralization; 
 
- Teresa "Tessie" Aquino-Oreta, NPC.  Age 62, born June 28, 1944 in 
Manila.  Sister of the martyred national hero Benigno "Ninoy" 
Aquino, Jr. and sister-in-law of former President Corazon Aquino. 
Served as Senator, 1998-2004, and  Congresswoman from 
Malabon-Navotas, 1987-1998.  As a lawmaker, she pursued an agenda 
centered on education and the rights of women and children. 
Strongly identified with ousted President Estrada, she did not seek 
reelection in 2004 apparently fearful of the backlash of her 
unflinching loyalty to him.  However, apparently smarting from the 
opposition camp favoring her nephew Benigno Aquino III, she joined 
the administration slate.  The twelfth winning candidate in the 1998 
Senate, she has not fared well so far in this year's surveys; 
 
- Cesar "Buboy" Montano, Lakas.  Age 44, born August 1, 1962 in 
Manila.  The highly popular movie actor-director-producer (with a 
starring role in Miramax's "The Great Raid" in 2005) plunged into 
politics aiming at no less than a Senate seat.  (Note:  There are 
already three movie actors in the Senate: Jinggoy Estrada, Ramon 
"Bong" Revilla, and Manuel "Lito" Lapid.  End note)  Actress-wife 
Sunshine Cruz is in the thick of the campaign with him; both are 
capitalizing on their showbiz popularity to win votes.  So far they 
are not succeeding; he is at the tail-end of surveys.  He seeks to 
revive the ailing movie industry as well as to promote education, 
health, and tourism.  He is currently a Philippine Commissioner for 
Culture and the Arts to UNESCO; 
 
- Prospero "Butch" Pichay, Lakas.  Age 56, born June 20, 1950 in 
Surigao del Sur Province.  A print media publisher and radio station 
owner, he served three full terms in Congress from 1998 through 
2007, most recently as Majority Leader.  A loyal political 
lieutenant of President Arroyo, he defended her against impeachment 
moves in Congress.  He was among the then-opposition Congressmen who 
endorsed the impeachment complaint against Estrada in 2000.  A 
 
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survey conducted by private firm Nielsen Media Research Philippines 
placed him on top in terms of campaign spending for pouring P33 
million in television advertisements in the first two weeks of this 
senatorial campaign.  However, he is at the bottom of the second 12 
in current surveys; 
 
- Ralph Recto, incumbent Senator, Nacionalista Party (NP).  Age 43, 
born January 11, 1964 in Quezon City.  He is married to popular 
movie actress and Lipa City Mayor Vilma Santos, who is the 
Administration's gubernatorial candidate in Batangas Province 
(barely edging out her brother-in-law).  After serving three terms 
(1992-2001) as the same province's representative in Congress, Recto 
placed twelfth in the 2001 Senate race under the Administration 
slate.  As Senator, he defended the passage of the unpopular 
Expanded VAT law to generate additional government revenues to 
reduce the budget deficit and to fund basic services, an issue that 
the opposition now raises against him.  He voted in favor of 
Anti-Money Laundering Act and the Human Security Act.  While in the 
lower house, he endorsed the impeachment complaint against Estrada. 
He continues to advocate for economic reform and countryside 
development.  So far the third highest (P22.7 million) campaign 
advertisement spender, he has occupied the middle position of the 
top 12 in surveys; 
 
- Vicente "Tito" Sotto III, NPC.  Age 58, born August 24, 1948 in 
Manila.  A highly popular television host and comedian, he topped 
the 1992 senatorial race and ranked third during his 1998 reelection 
bid.  As Senator, he voted in favor of the Visiting Forces Agreement 
and the Anti-Money Laundering Act, and actively pursued anti-illegal 
drug legislation.  A staunch ally of his showbiz colleague Estrada, 
Sotto was among those who successfully convinced popular movie actor 
Fernando Poe Jr. to run in the May 2004 presidential race.  Like 
Aquino-Oreta, he nonetheless joined the Administration slate after 
being ditched by the opposition.  However, regardless of which side 
he takes, Sotto holds a track record of win-ability; 
 
-  Luis  "Chavit"  Singson, Lakas.  Age 65, born June 21, 1941 in 
Ilocos Sur.  His role as Estrada whistleblower -- which eventually 
led to the President's ouster and detention for plunder charges - 
instantly brought Singson national fame.  A long-time politician, he 
has served as Ilocos governor for over 25 years (off and on) and 
also represented the province in Congress in 1987-1992.  His 
campaign took off late due to a medical condition.  He has had a 
hard time shaking off his "tradpol" (traditional politician) image 
and the Estrada camp's tirades against him.  Somewhat inexplicably, 
he played a prominent role in the resolution of a highly publicized 
hostage-taking of schoolchildren in Manila in March 2007, leading to 
allegations that he had staged the bizarre episode for political 
gain.  He champions agriculture and farmers' welfare as well as 
strong local governments.  However, he has so far performed poorly 
in surveys; 
 
-  Juan Miguel "Migs" Zubiri, Lakas.  Age  37, born April 13, 1969 
in Makati City.  The young Zubiri belongs to the political elite but 
his environmental, agricultural, and biofuel advocacies have helped 
him to develop a broader constituency.  Representing Bukidnon 
Province for three terms (1998-2007), he also supported economic 
reform legislation, endorsed the impeachment complaint against 
Estrada, and voted to junk the impeachment complaints against 
President Arroyo in 2005 and 2006.   He has expressed optimism that 
party machinery and a ctchy campaign ad portraying him as the 
people's "migo" will up his survey rating, currently at the 
seventeenth notch. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Grand Alliance of the Genuine Oppostion 
---------------------------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU)  The Genuine Opposition slate is the compomise handiwork 
of the fractious opposition, whih nonetheless agreed to consolidate 
forces to prserve an opposition-dominated Senate and continue he 
fight against the Arroyo administration.  Obsrvers see the Estrada 
camp's effort to flex its rmaining political muscle and note that 
some canddates have quietly condoned past attempts to overtrow the 
Arroyo government, while others played a active role in the ouster 
of Estrada himself.  lthough lacking in organization and apparently 
deendent on Estrada's declining financial resources,the opposition 
"powerhouse" slate stands a good hance of bagging more seats than 
the administraton slate.  Composed of two Senate incumbents, thre 
former Senators, three term-limited Congressmen,three neophytes, 
and "guest candidates," the oppsition line-up is as follows: 
 
- Benigno "Noynoy Aquino III, LP.  Age 47, born February 8, 190 in 
Manila.  Son of the late Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, Jr. and former 
President Corazon Aquino, he has vowed to continue his parents' 
fight for democracy, minus his father's fiery eloquence and his 
mother's influential moral leadership.  He initially had a very 
 
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popular campaigner in his youngest sister, popular television host 
and movie actress Kris Aquino, until well-publicized marital and 
pregnancy woes recently took her off the campaign trail.  He 
represented Tarlac Province in Congress from 1998 through 2007, and 
was Deputy Speaker until he supported opposition calls for President 
Arroyo to resign, even endorsing the impeachment complaint against 
her.   He had earlier supported the impeachment move against Estrada 
in 2000; 
 
- Alan Peter "Companero" Cayetano, NP.  Age 36, born October 28, 
¶1970.  He has acquired high media mileage with his systematic 
attacks against both President Arroyo and even more so First 
Gentleman Mike Arroyo.  His latest accusation that the First Family 
kept multi-million dollar accounts in a German bank led the House 
Ethics Committee to investigate and recommend his suspension from 
office for 45 days for failing to substantiate his claim.  However, 
Congress adjourned before the recommendation could take effect. 
Cayetano's senatorial bid has received some criticism since his 
older sister Pia is already serving in the Senate (as did their late 
father Rene).  There are moves as well to disqualify him due to 
alleged U.S. citizenship (his mother was an American and he 
reportedly at one time held a U.S. passport).  He is on his third 
and final term as Taguig-Pateros Congressman; he has pursued health 
and education reform legislation.  He endorsed impeachment 
complaints against Estrada in 2000 as well as against President 
Arroyo in both 2005 and 2006.  He has performed well so far in 
surveys and could very well land in the second six of the top 12; 
 
 
- Anna Dominique "Nikki" Coseteng, Independent.  Age 54, born 
December 18, 1952 in Manila.  She served as Senator 1992-2001 and as 
Congresswoman from Quezon City 1987-1992.  As a lawmaker, she 
focused on legislation to protect women's rights.  She opposed 
extension of U.S. bases but voted in favor of the Visiting Forces 
Agreement.  Identified with the Estrada camp, she defended him 
during the failed impeachment trial.  She is at the tail-end of 
surveys; 
 
- Joseph Francis "Chiz" Escudero, NPC.  Age 37, born October 10, 
1969 in Manila.  Graduate of Georgetown University.  He represented 
Sorsogon Province in Congress from 1998-2007, and most recently 
served as Minority Leader.  A brilliant and eloquent lawyer, 
Escudero reportedly dreams of becoming President someday and likely 
believes that landing a Senate seat is a step in that direction.  He 
gained media mileage for leading failed opposition attempts in the 
House to impeach President Arroyo twice.  He consistently performs 
well in poll surveys, often landing in the top six.  His campaign 
platform includes housing, livelihood, education, health, human 
rights, and the environment; 
 
- Panfilo "Ping" Lacson, incumbent Senator, United Opposition (UNO). 
 Age 57, born June 1, 1948 in Cavite Province.  A member of 
Philippine Military Academy's Class of 1971, he was Philippine 
National Police chief under Estrada.  Ranking 10th in the 2001 
Senate race, he launched a failed presidential bid halfway into his 
term in 2004, effectively splitting opposition votes.  He voted in 
favor of the Anti-Money Laundering Act.  One of the proponents of an 
anti-terror bill in the Senate, he expressed disappointment over a 
"mangled and watered down" Human Security Act that Congress passed 
in 2007.  He is in the top six of the surveys.  His campaign slogan 
"HOPE" stands for health, order, peace, and education; 
 
- Loren Legarda, NPC.  Age 47, born January 28, 1960 in Manila. 
Popular television personality turned politician, she is a former 
U.S. Embassy Ninoy Aquino Fellow for Journalism.  Legarda topped the 
1998 Senate race and was Majority Leader from 2001-2004.  Although 
she actively stood against Estrada during the failed impeachment 
trial, she aligned with his camp and became the running mate of 
opposition bet Fernando Poe, Jr.  Her ongoing formal election 
protest against proclaimed Vice Presidential winner Noli de Castro 
apparently ended when she filed her candidacy for the 2007 
senatorial race.  As a lawmaker, she voted for the Anti-Trafficking 
of Persons Act and the Anti-Money Laundering Act.  She stood against 
the Retail Trade Liberalization Act and the Visiting Forces 
Agreement.  The highly confident Legarda  -- who champions the 
rights of women and children as well as  environment protection -- 
consistently tops poll surveys again this year; 
 
- John "Sonny" Osmena, UNO.  Age 72, born January 17, 1935.  After 
collaborating with the Administration during his unsuccessful 2004 
re-election bid, he joined the Estrada camp apparently hoping to 
make a successful comeback.  Part of the prominent but internally 
feuding Osmena clan of Cebu, he is clearly banking on the Visayas 
vote.  He entices voters with a promise to push for free text 
messaging and the abolition of the EVAT law.  As a lawmaker, he 
voted in favor of the Visiting Forces Agreement and the extension of 
U.S. bases.  He is an advocate of federalism and has also projected 
 
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himself as an anti-corruption advocate.  He ranked eighth in the 
1998 Senate elections and has retained a similar ranking in current 
poll surveys; 
 
- Aquilino "Koko"  Pimentel III, PDP-Laban.  Age 43, born January 
20, 1964 in Cagayan de Oro City.  This is his second attempt at 
politics, having lost his mayoral bid in Cagayan de Oro City in 
¶2004.  Like Cayetano, he is also facing political dynasty issues, 
since his father, Minority Leader Aquilino "Nene" Pimentel, Jr., is 
an incumbent Senator.    A brilliant young lawyer, he pursued 
private practice after topping the 1990 Philippine Bar examinations. 
  He was Commissioner for Mindanao in the National Youth Commission, 
1995-1998; 
 
- Sonia Roco, Aksyon Demokratiko (AD) or Democratic Action.  Age 62, 
born July 20, 1944.  An educator by profession, she co-founded the 
Center for Early Childhood Education at the Ateneo de Manila 
University's Psychology Department and established the Live and 
Learn PreSchool in Loyola Heights, Quezon City.  She presents 
herself in the campaign trail as "Inang Guro" -- mother-educator -- 
and vowed to continue the educational reforms started by her late 
husband, former  Education Secretary and Senator Raul Roco, who ran 
and lost in the 2004 presidential elections.  She has also been 
active in NGO work for women, children, and the disabled; 
 
- Antonio "Magdalo" Trillanes IV, UNO.  Age 35, born August 6, 1971 
in Manila.  The youngest candidate in the opposition line-up, 
Trillanes is a junior military officer belonging to the Philippine 
Military Academy's Class of 1995.  His ticket to fame was leading 
the Oakwood mutiny in July 2003, for which he has been under 
military detention for four years now on coup d'etat charges.  He 
apparently eyes the Senate as the new venue for his reform advocacy, 
but his candidacy is hampered by inability of travel while in 
detention and a lack of media access.  He apparently is banking on 
"Magdalo" - a small organization of young military reformists who 
launched the mutiny - as well as the internet  to reach the voters. 
 
 
Independent Candidates 
---------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  There are four independent candidates who either want to 
run without the political baggage of either camp or who failed to 
win inclusion.  These are: 
 
-  Manuel Villar , Jr., incumbent Senator and current Senate 
President, NP.  Age 57, born December 13, 1949 in Manila.  Although 
running as an independent, Villar has agreed to be a "guest 
candidate" of the Genuine Opposition.  He will need the support of 
ousted President Estrada -- over whose impeachment he presided as 
then-House Speaker -- to maintain this leadership position as well 
as to prepare for his expected 2010 presidential plans.  A real 
estate developer, he is the current richest Senator, while his wife 
Cynthia holds the same distinction in the lower House.  The second 
highest media campaign spender so far, he has spent some P30.29 
million in the first two weeks of the senatorial campaign.  A role 
model for entrepreneurship, he also advocates for environment 
protection and women's rights.  As Senator, he voted for the 
Anti-Money Laundering Act and pushed for the passage of the Human 
Security Act.  He placed seventh in the 2001 Senate elections and is 
presently in the top 6 of surveys; 
 
- Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan, incumbent Senator and Majority Leader, 
LP.  Age 43, born August 24, 1963 in Manila.   Having supported 
calls for the resignation of Estrada in 2001 and Arroyo in 2005, 
Pangilinan said he rejected the offer to be the second "guest 
candidate" of the Genuine Opposition and to run independent as a 
matter of principle.  He is married to a very effective campaigner, 
popular movie actress and product endorser Sharon Cuneta.  He placed 
eighth in the 2001 Senate race and is currently in the top three of 
the surveys.  As Senator, he pushed the passage of the Juvenile 
Justice and Welfare Act and as well as other human rights and 
judiciary reform legislation; 
 
-  Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, Independent.  Age 59, born March 14, 
1948 in Baguio City.  A member of the Philippine Military Academy's 
Class of 1971, he is facing new coup d'etat charges for allegedly 
masterminding the failed Oakwood mutiny in July 2003 as well as 
alleged involvement in the attempted coup in February 2006.  Honasan 
was arrested for a number of coup attempts against the Aquino 
government but was granted amnesty by President Ramos, his co-player 
in the EDSA I people power revolution.  Like fellow candidate 
Trillanes, he again is presently detained and unable to directly 
wage a national campaign, having been denied bail.  But unlike 
Trillanes, Honasan is doing well in this year's surveys.  He hopes 
to retake his Senate seat after having faced term limitations in 
2004, and to continue his advocacy for police and military reform. 
 
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Placing thirteenth in the 2001 elections, he served the unexpired 
portion of the six-year term of Teofisto Guingona, whom President 
Arroyo appointed as Vice President in 2001; 
 
- Richard "Goma" Gomez, Independent. Age 40, born April 7, 1966 in 
Manila.  A popular movie actor and television host now seeking to 
join the political bandwagon, Gomez is also active in the anti-drug 
movement.  The Commission on Elections disqualified his 
organization, "Mamamayan Ayaw sa Droga (MAD)" or Citizens Against 
Drugs, as a party-list organization this year for having receiving 
funds from the government.  Like fellow actor Montano on the 
Administration ticket, he is so far still in the losing bracket of 
surveys. 
 
------------------ 
Other Alternatives 
------------------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  A trio from "Ang Kapatiran" (Brotherhood) -- a political 
organization pursuing "God-centered politics" -- claim to offer a 
fresh  alternative to "tradpols."   Without political machinery or 
clout, much less name recall, medical doctor Mario Bautista, former 
Visiting Forces Agreement Commission Executive Director Zosimo Jesus 
Paredes - who lost his job after publicly opposing the December 2006 
transfer of Lance Corporal Daniel Smith from Philippine custody back 
to U.S. custody - and lawyer Adrian Sison are facing an uphill 
battle.  They are at the tail end of virtually all poll surveys. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Latest Poll Surveys Show Opposition Head Start 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶11.  (U)  The Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia -- two of the 
more credible survey outfits -- have run parallel surveys on the 
Senate race.  Both show 17-18 candidates with statistical chances of 
winning.  The latest SWS survey, conducted March 1-18, showed seven 
from the Genuine Opposition, five from TEAM Unity, and three 
independent candidates in the top fifteen.  Topping the list is 
Legarda (GO), followed by independent incumbents Villar in second 
place and Pangilinan in third.  Opposition bets Lacson, Escudero, 
and Cayetano occupy the fourth, fifth, and sixth places, 
respectively.  In seventh and eighth places are Administration bets 
Recto and Angara; independent candidate Honasan is ninth.  Arroyo 
(TU) and Aquino (GO) share the tenth and eleventh spots, while Sotto 
(TU) and  Osmena (GO) are in twelfth and thirteenth places. 
Pimentel (GO) and Defensor (TU) are fourteenth and fifteenth.  Roco 
(GO) and Zubiri (TU) follow as sixteenth and seventeenth, 
respectively. 
 
¶12.  (U)  Pulse Asia's March survey also showed Legarda leading the 
pack, followed by Lacson, Pangilinan, Escudero, Recto, Villar, 
Arroyo, Aquino, and Angara.  Pulse Asia predicted that Cayetano 
could bag anywhere between the fifth to eleventh number of votes, 
followed by Honasan, Sotto, Pimentel, Magsaysay, Roco, Osmena and 
Defensor.  This would indicate that nine GO candidates, six TU 
candidates, and three independent candidates have statistical 
chances of winning. 
KENNEY