VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0958 1062054
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 162054Z APR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9826
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1059
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000958 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: ALN: FSLN PLOTTING TO BUY VOTES AND DIVIDE 
OPPOSITION 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 0847 
 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 0331 
     ¶C. 06 MANAGUA 2725 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: National Assembly deputies of the Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN) agree that, theoretically, the 
Assembly could serve as a check to President Ortega's 
totalitarian tendencies.  Unfortunately, the FSLN will work 
hard to maintain Liberal divisions and build popular support 
through the use of off-budget funds derived from Venezuelan 
largesse.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) On 21 March, Embassy officials and INR analysts met 
with ALN deputies Luis Callejas, Ramiro Silva, and Alejandro 
Bolanos to discuss the actions of the Ortega administration 
and the role of the opposition.  Bolanos commented that 
Ortega will attempt to implement a Venezuelan model, and the 
National Assembly is the only body of government that he does 
not control. 
 
¶3. (C) The deputies agreed that a unification of all of the 
opposition caucuses is the only way to thwart Ortega's plans. 
 They felt however that the probability of such an alliance 
is very unlikely because convicted PLC leader and Ortega ally 
Arnoldo Aleman still controls many PLC votes.  Callejas 
stated that they cannot destroy Arnoldo, but maybe could 
defeat him through fair internal party elections.  Bolanos 
also warned that several PLC and ALN deputies have already 
been compromised by FSLN threats and/or bribes.  He claimed 
that the FSLN has appointed a deputy to &shadow8 a member 
of the opposition and watch their activities.  According to 
Callejas, the six deputies of the Convergencia are a "lost 
cause" and will never betray Ortega. 
 
¶4. (C) Callejas explained that the FSLN will have $150 
million in off budget funds each year through a deal with 
Chavez that will allow them to repay 40% of the cost of 
Venezuelan oil imports in 25 years, while spending the 
interest on programs that will buy the support of the rural 
poor.  In time, this strategy will garner the FSLN enough 
votes to win elections outright. 
 
¶5. (C) In the meantime, the FSLN is plotting to keep the 
opposition divided.  Callejas and Bolanos stated that the 
FSLN/PLC plan to file charges against Montealegre and Bolanos 
Administration officials so that Cardinal Miguel Obando, head 
of Ortega,s &Peace and Reconciliation Commission,8 can 
step in and push for a general amnesty that would include 
Aleman. Aleman,s new freedom and the &contrived8 
Conservative Party division over whether or not to break from 
the ALN are all part of a plan coordinated by Ortega to give 
the ALN an image of weakness, the deputies explained. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment: Although the ALN deputies were pessimistic 
that the PLC and Convergencia deputies would ever break with 
the caudillos, Ortega,s increasingly totalitarian behavior 
has generated public criticism from both groups.  Even ALN 
renegade-turned-Sandinista lawmaker Salvador Talavera has 
joined the chorus, publicly challenging Ortega to deliver on 
his campaign agreement to compensate the Contras, or be "made 
to" do so.  The problem, as always, is the lack of leadership 
in the opposition to provide a coherent alternative.  The ALN 
legislators were easily able to identify challenges, but 
failed to propose viable solutions. 
TRIVELLI