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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0955/01 1061546
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161546Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9822
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000955 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NU
SUBJECT: FORMER MRS CANDIDATE JARQUIN HOPES TO UNITE FORCES 
FOR THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Former Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) 
presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin told Embassy officers 
and INR analysts that he is focusing on the municipal 
elections and uniting forces opposed to President Daniel 
Ortega during a meeting on 23 March at his residence. 
Jarquin reported that he is acting as the political 
coordinator for the MRS and has met with some success in 
obtaining media coverage for the party.  He is also working 
for the United Nations in Panama and Spain.  He commented 
that he has now established himself in Managua but will be 
traveling several times a month to Panama and Spain. END 
SUMMARY 
 
Focused on the Municipal Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) Jarquin told emboffs and INR analysts that he is 
focused on the 2008 municipal elections and stated that the 
lack of media exposure and good political analysis, along 
with the typically high abstention rates for municipal 
elections, are obstacles for his party.  Jarquin commented 
that during the last few months of the national campaign, the 
MRS did not have enough presence or coverage in the press. 
The party will focus on avoiding the same problem during the 
municipal elections. 
 
¶3.  (C) Jarquin shared that he is working with the Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN) to form an alliance for the municipal 
elections.  He met with ALN leader Eduardo Montealegre in 
mid-March to discuss such cooperation.  Jarquin believes that 
if the ALN and MRS unite for the municipal elections, and 
choose consensus candidates, they stand a chance of winning a 
majority of the departments.  However, the parties would need 
to select candidates through a democratic process enough in 
advance of election day to allow time for the public to 
become familiar with them. 
 
¶4.  (C) An alliance between the MRS and ALN would be the 
first step in changing the current political dynamic, 
according to Jarquin.  The alliance then could try to pull in 
some support from the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC); 
Jarquin mentioned Maximo Rodriguez and Enrique QuQ,6hwyrtega's actions, they do not support the 
MRS.  Jarquin did comment, however, that he has received some 
notes from FSLN deputies telling him they like what MRS 
deputies Monica Baltadano and Enrique Saenz are doing in the 
National Assembly. 
 
Political Analysis Sorely Needed 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) According to Jarquin, there is nobody in Nicaragua 
doing serious economic or policy analysis of what is 
happening in the country.  Internal reports by the parties 
say different things, which will lead to errors in 
formulating political strategies in Jarquin's opinion.  Small 
parties experience particular difficulty in this regard. 
Jarquin is also surprised by the weakness of the private 
sector's political and technical analysis.  He expressed the 
need for analysis of the new agreements between Nicaragua and 
Venezuela.  He also commented that FUNIDES has been 
particularly disappointing. 
 
¶6.  (C) Jarquin suggested that good analysis of the national 
election results would help spur an MRS-ALN alliance.  He 
believes that of the 900,000 votes that the ALN and MRS won 
together (ALN - 700,000 and MRS -- 200,000), about 300,000 to 
400,000 are a "voto duro" (hard vote) for the ALN and MRS 
parties.  The majority -- 500,000 to 600,000 -- were simply 
anti-Pact votes, and were not for one party or another. 
These voters would like to see the MRS and ALN united and 
would most likely be more supportive of ALN/MRS consensus 
candidates in the municipal elections.  Jarquin reported that 
he planned to speak with Raul Obregon of M&R about an opinion 
poll that would target the anti-Pact vote and views of the 
ALN and MRS. 
 
On Ortega and the Future 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) Jarquin claimed that he is more optimistic than his 
colleagues about the situation in Nicaragua.  Stating that 
Somoza was at his strongest five years before he fell, 
Jarquin opined that the current strength of the Aleman-Ortega 
pact is a sign of the end, or the "last hurrah."  Jarquin 
added that Ortega will be at an advantage if he is only 
attacked by the right.  Therefore, the left must also 
challenge him and closely monitor his actions. 
 
¶9.  (C) Jarquin believes that Ortega and Arnoldo Aleman will 
do anything to prevent a repeat of 2006, when the anti-Pact 
forces were actually a real threat to the continuing power of 
the pact.  As soon as Montealegre started spendi~jVQPLC 
and continue the division among the Liberals.  Jarquin 
predicted that there would be some kind of announcement on 
Montealegre and the CENIs issue after Easter week, but he 
still believes that it is hard to make too much of an issue 
out of it without spooking the banking sector. 
 
¶10.  (C) According to Jarquin, Ortega is not a 
detail-oriented person and the recent trend toward 
micromanagement -- for example controlling the travel of all 
ministers -- is new and can be attributed to Rosario 
Murillo's influence.  Jarquin believes that Vice President 
Jaime Morales has no role in the new administration except 
for helping with public relations.  According to Jarquin, 
Nicaragua is Ortega's to lose -- he inherited the best 
possible situation, particularly in terms of the economy that 
was strengthened during the Bolanos administration.  That 
said, what made Ortega's win possible, according to Jarquin, 
is the fact that there has not been any real poverty 
alleviation in Nicaragua.  The paradigms of democracy and a 
market economy have not worked for the poor in Latin America. 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Jarquin speaks English adequately, although he is 
more comfortable speaking in Spanish.  His wife attended part 
of the meeting. 
TRIVELLI