VZCZCXRO4144
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #1028/01 1132011
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 232011Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9908
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1068
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001028 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU
SUBJECT: IN SEARCH OF OPPOSITION UNITY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: A group of democratic-minded Nicaraguans are 
attempting to create a political opposition force to counter 
President Ortega's apparent determination to turn Nicaragua 
into an autocratic regime along the lines of Chavez's 
Venezuela.  The group proposes to establish a new national 
democratic party that would encompass most opposition parties 
and form alliances with others.  The party would focus on 
setting a common legislative agenda; prepare for the 2008 
municipal elections; and, block Ortega's efforts to postpone 
these elections and reform the constitution to permit 
consecutive presidential reelection.  The group has met with 
all parties associated with the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance 
(ALN), including ALN president Eduardo Montealegre, who 
appears supportive of the initiative.  MRS presidential 
candidate Edmundo Jarquin has reportedly shown interest in 
the project, but under the condition that Arnoldo Aleman is 
not involved.  The group will also approach individuals 
affiliated with the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) to 
join the new party, but not Aleman.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Ambassador, DCM, and PolCouns met on April 18 with a 
group of democratic-minded Nicaraguans who are attempting to 
create a solid and coherent political opposition force to 
counter President Ortega's apparent determination to turn 
Nicaragua into an authoritarian regime along the lines of 
Chavez's Venezuela.  Representing this new initiative were 
Jose Adan Guerra, former Defense Minister; Alfredo Cesar, a 
National Assembly lawmaker/and Assembly president during the 
Chamorro government and founder of the National Democratic 
Party (PND); Mauricio Diaz, Ambassador/former Director of 
Foreign Ministry's Multilateral Affairs Office and a founding 
member of the Popular Social Christian Party; and, Mauricio 
Mendieta, plastic surgeon, entrepreneur, and a founder of the 
Nicaraguan Democratic Movement (MDN). 
 
¶3.  (C) Group members shared their plans to create a new 
national democratic party that would encompass most 
opposition parties and form alliances with others, including 
the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS).  Eduardo 
Montealegre's ALN with its allies from the Conservative Party 
(PC), The National Resistance Party (PRN), Social Christian 
Party (PSC), Alliance for the Republic (APRE), Independent 
Liberal Party (PLI) would form the base of the party.  The 
MRS would also be invited to join the new party, or to enter 
into an alliance with it, they explained.  While at the start 
of the meeting, the group proposed to invite the PLC to join, 
by the end of the evening, they agreed with the Ambassador 
that this approach is untenable given Aleman's control over 
that party and his pact with Ortega.  Instead, the group will 
encourage individuals associated with the PLC to participate. 
 
¶4.  (C) Guerra explained that the new party will focus on 
setting a common legislative agenda; preparing for the 2008 
municipal elections; and blocking Ortega's efforts to 
postpone these elections and legislate consecutive 
presidential reelection.  He mentioned that the group had met 
separately with all parties associated with the ALN and would 
meet on April 19 with ALN president Eduardo Montealegre 
together with leaders of the ALN allied parties.  Then, they 
would approach MRS former presidential candidate Edmundo 
Jarquin.  The party's basic tenets include internal democracy 
(conventions and primaries); the defense of basic freedoms 
including free enterprise; and the protection and promotion 
of democratic institutions.  Guerra calculated that the party 
could start with an internal voter list of some 300,000 - 
approximately 10% of registered voters. 
 
¶5.  (C) Next, Mendieta sketched the group's "battle" plan and 
timeline: 
 
--Form a "Unity for Nicaragua Committee" (CUN) (May-June 
2007); 
 
--Release a CUN working document and "manifesto" (June 2007); 
 
--Conduct focus groups and polls, assess results, and find a 
suitable name for the new party (July-August 2007); 
 
--Conduct primaries to select 1,500 conventioneers (each 
representing 2,000 party members) and municipal authorities 
(September-October 2007); 
 
 
MANAGUA 00001028  002 OF 002 
 
 
--Hold a national convention, name the party, review and 
approve its statutes, and establish qualifications for 
national, departmental, and municipal leaders (November); 
 
--Target candidates for the November 2008 elections 
(January-February 2008); and, 
 
--Hold primaries for municipal candidates, inviting civil 
society and private sector leaders to participate as well as 
local politicians (March 2008). 
 
¶6.  (C) Cesar recognized that Nicaragua's history is replete 
with these types of initiatives.  He noted that Violeta 
Chamorro's UNO was one that went further than most, but not 
far enough, attributing its inability to prosper to political 
inexperience and lack of a strategy.  Since then, many 
Nicaraguans have matured, reject the old caudillo parties, 
and desire a truly modern, democratic party, he argued. 
(Note:  The group's printed materials propose the creation of 
a modern party committed to genuine internal democracy, based 
on fundamentals that transcend personal, sectarian, and 
electoral interests, and governed by ethical principles and 
clear and fair rules.  All members will enjoy the same 
opportunities, responsibilities and rights.) 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) On April 20, Mendieta e-mailed a copy of the 
presentation the group presented to Montealegre on April 19 
and informed PolCouns over the phone that Montealegre had 
been very receptive to the initiative.  According to 
Mendieta, Montealegre was open to inviting the PLC's former 
presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Jose Rizo and 
Jose Antonio Alvarado, respectively, to join the effort. 
Mendieta recounted that in his follow on conversation with 
Rizo, the former presidential candidate welcomed the new 
political project.  And, in his phone conversation with 
Jarquin, the MRS leader was "enthused and fascinated" by the 
idea -- under the condition, however that Aleman would not be 
invited to participate, said Mendieta.  This initiative is 
the latest in a growing stream of efforts to create a viable 
opposition.  The project looks good on paper and merits 
attention.  To the degree it gains momentum and buy-in from 
Nicaragua's diverse and splintered opposition, including 
civil society, it may have a fighting chance to succeed. 
TRIVELLI