VZCZCXRO0637
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1872/01 1091357
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191357Z APR 07
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1037
INFO RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG PGOV GM
SUBJECT: Fast Cars and Hot Times in Southwest Germany 
 
REF:  Frankfurt 258 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  The southwest German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg 
(B-W) -- an economic powerhouse and conservative bulwark with a 
growing environmental movement -- is waking up to climate change now 
that a recent study shows that a dramatic temperature rise is 
underway in the region.  In response to the sobering findings, the 
B-W state government has introduced a plan to expand conservation 
and renewable energy sources (and has renewed calls to keep nuclear 
power in Germany).  As home to premium carmakers Mercedes and 
Porsche, however, the state's political-industrial complex is 
squarely against proposed EU regulations to broadly cap vehicle CO2 
emissions.  The state's experience shows how climate change can tie 
even a highly prosperous region in knots.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
Soon to Be An Intemperate Zone? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The states of Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) and Bavaria, in 
cooperation with the German Weather Service, recently concluded a 
study on the impact of global warming in southern Germany.  The 
results give pause:  in our discussion with Dr. Manfred Loistl, the 
B-W Environment Ministry's chief expert on global warming, he noted 
that between 1951 and 2000, the average annual temperature in 
Baden-Wuerttemberg rose by 1.5 degrees Celsius and will rise another 
1.7 degrees by the year 2050 (Note: the state's temperature increase 
so far is double the estimated worldwide warming of 0.7 degrees over 
the past century).  The average number of days below freezing shrank 
by thirty days, while summer days increased by an average of twenty 
days.  The number of rainy days increased by eleven days per year 
(25cm more annual rainfall).  Forecasts for 2021 to 2050 say the 
number of days over 30 degrees Celsius/86 Fahrenheit will nearly 
double, while days below freezing will be halved.  Dr. Loistl said 
that state leaders are concerned and are prepared to invest in more 
renewable energies and energy efficiency;  they also feel more 
strongly than ever the need to extend the life of existing nuclear 
power plants. 
 
----------------- 
Energy is the Key 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  In an effort to curb the state's CO2 emissions, 
Baden-Wuerttemberg recently introduced its "Climate Protection 2010 
Concept" which advocates: 
-- refurbishing old buildings to make them more energy efficient 
-- eco-friendly mobility networks 
-- support for energy efficiency in industry, and 
-- expanding use of renewable energy sources. 
The state already has a sizable installed base of renewable energy 
(6%);  Dr. Loistl said that the B-W government will urge 
ENBW/Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg (Germany's third largest energy 
supplier and a major operator of nuclear power stations) to use 
profits to expand renewable energy to 11% by 2010.  Sources under 
consideration include geothermic power, biomass, and additional 
hydropower.  Windpower (only 1% of alternative power in the state) 
remains controversial among conservatives who criticize turbines as 
unsightly in a state which is Germany's second-largest tourist 
destination. 
 
¶4.  The state also sees nuclear energy (reftel) as critical to its 
efforts to fight climate change.  Under Germany's nuclear phase-out 
plan, EnBW closed the nuclear power plant in Obrigheim in 2005 and 
another plant in Neckarwestheim is slated for decommissioning in 
early 2009.  State leaders say that keeping nuclear power plants in 
operation for another twenty years would reduce the state's CO2 
emissions (currently 78 million tons annually) by 2-4 million tons 
per year.  Conversely, if nuclear plants are supplanted by 
coal-fired power plants, CO2 emissions will increase by 6.4 million 
tons annually.  As a result, leaders in Baden-Wuerttemberg oppose 
the current federal government commitment to phasing out all German 
nuclear power by 2020.  State politicians recognize the political 
inertia against revisiting Germany's phase-out plan (enshrined in 
the Coalition Agreement) but are adamant about trying to extend 
reactor life. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
COMMENT:  But Don't Touch My Porsche/Mercedes 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Governed by conservatives for decades, Baden-Wuerttemberg is 
home to premium car makers Mercedes and Porsche (the state bills 
itself as the "birthplace" of the automobile in 1889) which pits it 
against environmentalists in debates over regulating passenger cars 
emissions.  In a recent meeting, Germany's auto industry association 
(VDA) noted that Europe's record-setting warm winter season has 
generated intense political and public pressure on the automotive 
sector to "do more" about global warming.  Germany's automakers -- 
in particular the luxury and sport-car segments -- are concerned 
that European regulators will set fleetwide or Europe-wide caps on 
 
FRANKFURT 00001872  002 OF 002 
 
 
vehicle CO2 emissions (an often cited level is 120 grams/kilometer). 
 German industry representatives -- and their largely conservative 
political allies -- say broad caps would substantially disadvantage 
many German makers (whose brands sell on performance) versus French 
and Italian makers (with more compact, mass-market vehicles). 
German representatives point out that their vehicles are highly 
efficient for their size and engine capacity -- and grumble 
privately that Brussels regulators appear to favor French and 
Italian interests.  The German auto industry is also adamantly 
opposed to imposing across-the-board maximum speed limits on 
Germany's autobahns, which many environmentalists are calling for to 
curb CO2 emissions and conserve fuel.  Automaker concerns prompted 
Germany to block the EU's proposed 120 g/km limit, resulting in a 
130 g/km standard which will allow for the contribution of biofuels 
and tires. 
 
¶6.  The fact that Baden-Wuerttemberg is getting warmer -- faster 
than most of the globe -- came as a wake-up call.  Like neighboring 
Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg is wealthy and has a tremendous 
technology base;  some of its companies will likely "win out" from 
the drive to address climate change (such as Bosch, the world's 
largest automotive supplier and inventor of technologies from spark 
plugs through fuel injectors to oxygen sensors).  Growth has brought 
its own problems:  the region's cities and jammed highways will be 
hard hit by new diesel-particulate restrictions, for instance. 
Greens polled ten percent of the electorate in 2006 state elections 
-- a new high -- and now control important mayorships including 
Freiburg (a hub for solar technology).  The state's long-standing 
conservative/free-democratic (CDU-FDP) coalition is sometimes 
ambitious -- in its 2006 coalition agreement, it set a goal of 
reducing per-capita energy use by twenty percent over ten years -- 
but is finding that economic growth and wealth create their own 
dilemmas in dealing with public expectations surrounding the climate 
change debate.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7. This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin and Consulate 
General Munich. 
 
POWELL