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DE RUEHLM #0629/01 1171007
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FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5934
INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3694
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0898
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 7618
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 1992
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 000629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER EINV MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY 
BOUCHER'S VISIT TO MALE' 
 
REF: COLOMBO 289 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit to Maldives comes as this 
moderate Islamic nation is experiencing the political strains 
of an indigenous push toward democracy that began in 2004. 
Tensions between the government and opposition have slowed 
the pace of constitutional reform, frustrating many.  There 
is potential for cross-party cooperation, but each side will 
need to overcome deep distrust of the other and forgo 
short-term political gains.  Maldivians in both the 
government and opposition are highly receptive to U.S. 
inputs, so your visit is likely to have a positive impact on 
the progress of reforms.  We will provide you with a dossier 
of biographic information and suggested key points prior to 
each of your meetings in Maldives; this scene-setter provides 
some background and an overview of themes you may wish to 
emphasize.  You will meet with President Gayoom, influential 
political officials, and members of the nascent opposition. 
With all interlocutors, you should stress U.S. support for an 
inclusive reform process and encourage joint efforts to 
revise the constitution in the lead-up to the country's 
first-ever multi-party election, scheduled for 2008. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY cont'd: You will also meet resident 
Ambassadors and UN officials, who, in addition to the 
political situation, will likely discuss the drug problem 
endemic in Maldives and raise concerns about a possible rise 
in Islamic fundamentalism.  Maldives' economic climate holds 
potential for American investors, and we plan to have you 
meet the Trade Minister.  There will also be opportunities 
for public diplomacy outreach, including a press event at the 
American Corner in the Male' library and a discussion with 
women active in politics and civil society.  A scheduled 
speech about the importance of democratic stability in the 
region would be an excellent opportunity to emphasize 
tolerance for political pluralism.  In addition, you will 
attend the launch of the GLOBE initiative, which allows 
school children from around the world to collaborate over the 
internet to track environmental data.  End summary. 
 
BACKGROUND 
----------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Maldives, a moderate Islamic country, is pro-U.S., 
cooperates on American military objectives, and is responsive 
to our inputs on human rights.  In a single generation, it 
has gone from South Asia's poorest country to that with its 
highest per capita income.  An indigenous push for democracy 
within this small, one-hundred percent Muslim country began 
in June 2004, and there is potential for successfully 
establishing a liberal democracy.  However, there remains a 
possibility that the reform process may falter and lead to a 
subsequent turn to anti-western practices.  Your visit comes 
at a politically sensitive time, as tensions between the 
government and opposition leave the future of constitutional 
reform unclear. 
 
¶4. (SBU) You will be the second highest ranking American 
official to visit Maldives in recent years, following Under 
Secretary Henrietta Fore's successful trip in March (reftel). 
 
SIPDIS 
 You will meet with several government officials, including 
some from a reformist contingent known as "The New Maldives," 
led by Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, who has worked 
diligently to bring about change.  Shaheed and his colleagues 
perceive President Gayoom as their protector against 
hard-line ministers in the cabinet, and they seem to believe 
he is strongly committed to democratizing Maldives.  Shaheed, 
Saeed, and five other government officials have been meeting 
regularly with the opposition to cover: Track 1, 
constitutional reform; Track 2, legislative cooperation; and 
Track 3, establishing an environment conducive to 
democratization.  Nevertheless, the government continues to 
conduct politically motivated arrests, prosecutions, and 
deportations, frustrating the opposition. 
 
UNIQUE CHALLENGES 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The capital island of Male', two square kilometers 
in size, is home to over 100,000 people.  With the greatest 
population density of any capital city in the world, Male' is 
teeming with young people, some unemployed and many with 
 
COLOMBO 00000629  002 OF 005 
 
 
substance abuse problems.  It is no surprise that it has been 
a flash-point for protests and occasional violence.  As it 
attempts the transition from autocracy to democracy, Maldives 
faces myriad challenges, including: distrust between the 
government and opposition, minimal progress on reform 
legislation, the potential for Islamic extremism to take 
root, and economic strains on citizens.  However, there is 
potential for progress.  The Commonwealth has proposed to 
bring government and opposition officials together outside of 
Maldives at a date still to be determined in the next months 
to facilitate talks on constitutional revisions.  We think 
you should urge the government to show restraint and patience 
in dealing with the opposition.  Likewise, we suggest you 
encourage the opposition to stay engaged in political 
discussions and processes.  Such feedback coming from a 
highly placed American official is likely to have a positive 
impact. 
 
TENSIONS HIGH BETWEEN 
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The government and nascent opposition remain deeply 
wary of one another.  The latest incident to raise tension 
occurred on April 15, following the discovery of a corpse 
floating in a lagoon.  Many suspected the victim, who had 
been in detention, was killed in police custody.  Security 
forces reported that police had released the detainee, who 
died in unknown circumstances afterward, but the deceased's 
family did not accept that account.  The opposition gathered 
in Male' to demand explanations, and a spontaneous 
demonstration ensued. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The press carried photos of the protest, during 
which police hit the opposition leader in the face before 
arresting him along with 12 others.  Several detainees, 
including the opposition leader, were released the following 
day.  The Maldivian government announced it had been 
exonerated by an autopsy conducted in Sri Lanka, while the 
deceased's family and the opposition continued to demand an 
independent investigation.  The government made several 
public statements calling on the opposition to stop using the 
incident for political gain.  On April 25, the government 
ratcheted up the pressure when a court summoned four 
opposition activists for violating freedom of assembly 
regulations in 2006.  On April 19, the Immigration Controller 
also deported Adam Cooper, a dual American-UK national 
working as a consultant to the MDP with a local work permit. 
Cooper got in touch with our Embassy, and the Ambassador 
contacted the Attorney General to ask about his case.  The 
Attorney General's office confirmed that Cooper would be 
blacklisted from Maldives for two years.  However, Cooper 
reported that on April 25, MDP officials met with immigration 
officials and requested that he be permitted to return to 
Maldives and remain until July, when his replacement is due 
to arrive.  The Defense Minister, who has authority over 
immigration issues, said he would consider the request, 
Cooper told us. 
 
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PRESSURES 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) Maldives' economy, while small, is growing quickly and 
offers potential for U.S. exports and investment, especially 
in the tourism, aviation, and energy sectors.  These issues 
will feature prominently in your meeting with the Trade 
Minister.  However, economic concerns have created some 
strain in Maldives.  Many locals, reluctant to break up 
family units by moving to resort islands to work, depend 
heavily on the fishing industry for income. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The absence of a university in Maldives has left an 
opening for extremists from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to 
offer scholarships to young Maldivians.  After attending 
madrassahs overseas, these students often return home to 
espouse a fundamentalist strain of Islam antithetical to 
Maldives' moderate cultural roots.  Many Embassy contacts 
have commented on the rising popularity of the Islamist 
Adalath (Justice) Party, which promotes "Koran over 
Constitution" ideals.  This small group has used its role as 
a political party to circumvent strict laws that limit public 
proselytizing.  Government officials will likely raise 
 
COLOMBO 00000629  003 OF 005 
 
 
concerns about the potential for religious extremism.  You 
might respond that the Embassy will use International Visitor 
and Speaker Programs and U.S.-Maldives Friendship Week to 
provide cultural exchanges that could act as one 
counterweight to extremist voices.  We are also working with 
Ambassador Tahir-Kheli to develop programs to encourage the 
role of women, who have a strong stake in maintaining 
moderate Islam. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Another major social pressure in Maldives is the 
prevalence of drugs, primarily heroin in the form of "brown 
sugar" from India, which is smoked.  In January 2007 the 
UNICEF Resident Representative in Male' estimated up to 
25,000 people, or 7 percent of the population, regularly use 
hard drugs.  UNICEF also cited anecdotal evidence that 
intravenous drug use may be on the rise, creating the 
potential for a serious public health threat.  UN officials 
will brief you further on this topic, and you will also have 
an opportunity to visit a drug treatment facility run by an 
American firm, Synapse. 
 
MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETING WITH 
PRESIDENT GAYOOM 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) President Gayoom has ruled the country for 28 years 
and remains the primary catalyst in the democratization 
process.  He announced the need for "sweeping reforms" in 
2004 in response to local and international pressure 
following a custodial death, a subsequent prison riot, and 
demonstrations in Male'.  Since then, Maldives has made some 
notable strides forward, including the legal recognition of 
political parties in June 2005, improved prison conditions, 
increased freedom of assembly, and further freedom of the 
press. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Key messages: 
-- Laud the government's progress to date, especially 
welcoming the June 2005 cabinet reshuffle that brought 
reformists such as Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed into the 
foreground. 
 
-- Express appreciation for the March 2006 publication of the 
"Roadmap for Reform" and urge the President to act within its 
spirit and keep to its time-table during this period of 
transition. 
 
-- Note that the U.S. welcomes the commitment to hold 
Maldives' first-ever multi-party election in 2008.  If it is 
successful, Maldives has the potential to be an unprecedented 
success story in the Muslim world. 
 
-- President Gayoom has an excellent opportunity to cement 
his legacy by facilitating constitutional reform, promoting 
separation of powers, and strengthening democratic 
institutions in the lead-up to the 2008 election.  Encourage 
him to work with the opposition and the Commonwealth to 
accomplish these objectives. 
 
MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETINGS WITH 
REFORMIST OFFICIALS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) When you meet with Foreign Minister Shaheed and his 
friend and ally, Attorney General Hassan Saeed, they will 
likely highlight the progress on reform to date.  They will 
acknowledge, however, that much remains to be done, and may 
express concerns about the potential rise of Islamic 
fundamentalism.  Key messages: 
 
-- Express appreciation for the reformists' efforts. 
 
-- The Embassy will use the International Visitor and Speaker 
programs and U.S.-Maldives Friendship Week to promote liberal 
democratic ideals that may act as a counterweight to 
extremist views. 
 
-- Urge Shaheed and Saeed to foster a politically tolerant 
atmosphere.  When the government conducts prosecutions of 
opposition members based on laws currently being revised, 
this creates a perception that political dissent is still 
penalized. 
 
COLOMBO 00000629  004 OF 005 
 
 
 
-- Encourage the use of internationally accepted standards 
for freedom of assembly and of the media. 
 
-- Encourage the government to act within the spirit of the 
"Roadmap for Reform," and to cooperate with the opposition 
and Commonwealth. 
 
MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETING WITH THE OPPOSITION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶14. (SBU) The major opposition Maldivian Democratic Party, 
the first to register once parties were legally recognized in 
June 2005, has made sincere efforts to build up its 
bureaucratic structures.  A partnership with the UK Tories 
launched in February may prove productive.  However, some in 
the Maldivian Democratic Party still interpret the role of 
"opposition" too literally, merely rejecting government 
initiatives out of hand without offering viable alternatives. 
 The attitude is rooted in the party's beginnings as an 
activist group founded by several people who served 
politically motivated detentions and suffered abuse in 
custody.  Nevertheless, many in the opposition now 
acknowledge the need to work with reformists in the 
government to implement legislative and constitutional 
changes.  However, the party has changed its conditions for 
engaging in talks with the government several times. 
 
¶15. (SBU) When you meet with opposition officials, they will 
likely focus on a litany of complaints, including politically 
motivated arrests and prosecutions, allegations of police 
brutality, and lack of sincerity on the government's part. 
You can assure them that Ambassador Blake raises these 
concerns with the government  The opposition also has a habit 
of criticizing the president and holding him personally 
responsible for all problems within the country.  You should 
welcome the party's commitment to strengthening democracy in 
Maldives and ask that they prioritize that vital goal over 
short-term political gains, and work constructively with the 
Government and Commonwealth.  You should urge that the party 
behave responsibly and take its political role seriously 
without focusing solely on civil disobedience or "street 
action."  You should reiterate that the U.S. supports a 
peaceful transition to democracy and revision of the 
constitution, ideally leading to free, fair, multi-party 
election in 2008. 
 
DEFENSE COOPERATION 
-------------------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Maldives has often demonstrated its commitment to a 
close military-to military relationship with the U.S. through 
active participation in joint exercises and by sending cadets 
to American service academies.  Maldivian participants are 
competent, professional, and willing to increase 
interoperability between our forces.  The Maldivian Defense 
Ministry has responded quickly and positively to requests for 
flight and ship clearances, and facilitated transit.  In your 
meeting with Defense Minister Ismail Shafeeu, you may wish to 
express thanks and cmmit to continued good relations between 
our respective militaries. 
 
MESSAGES FOR POLICE CHIEF 
-------------------------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) You will also meet Chief of Police Adam Zahir, 
widely perceived as a hardliner.  The opposition and many in 
the general public believe Zahir was previously responsible 
for abuse of prisoners, and the opposition often demands his 
dismissal.  In December 2005, the Foreign Minister was at 
odds with him, privately telling poloff the police chief was 
undermining reform from within the government.  More 
recently, Zahir has made efforts to improve the image of his 
police force, inviting foreign consultants to offer feedback 
and seeking training.  Many in the police have responded 
positively, trying to incorporate improved methods. 
Nevertheless, the public often clashes with police at 
demonstrations, and the special unit "Star Force" has 
garnered a reputation for using undue force to break up 
rallies. 
 
¶18. (SBU) Key messages for Zahir: 
 
COLOMBO 00000629  005 OF 005 
 
 
-- Commend the police for seeking training opportunities and 
other international assistance. 
 
-- Note that as Maldives gains greater experience with 
freedom of assembly and of expression, police should develop 
a stronger understanding of appropriate methods of crowd 
control and escalation of force. 
 
-- State that rule of law is a vital component of a 
democracy, and the police must earn the public's trust. 
 
-- The security forces can be important actors in the reform 
process.  It will be important for them to learn more about 
the pending legislation that may codify reforms. 
 
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY OUTREACH 
--------------------------- 
 
¶19. (SBU) You will have several opportunities for public 
diplomacy outreach, including a press conference at the 
American Corner in Male' and a speech to a local audience 
about the importance of democratic stability in the region. 
The Maldivian press is just growing accustomed to a modicum 
of independence, and most reporters remain somewhat passive. 
Questions will likely focus on American views about 
democratization in Maldives.  We will provide press points in 
your briefing packet. 
 
¶20. (SBU) A roundtable discussion with women active in 
politics, business, and civil society will give you an 
opportunity to hear from a dynamic, though under-represented, 
group.  Across the political spectrum, women have faced 
similar barriers to participation and overcome similar 
obstacles during the reform process.  Key message: 
-- Congratulate the women for their efforts and emphasize the 
importance of their continuing to take on leadership roles 
despite challenges. 
 
¶21. (U) The opening of the GLOBE program in Maldives, likely 
at a government office with students invited to attend, will 
provide an opportunity to garner publicity for American 
environmental efforts.  As a low-lying atoll nation, Maldives 
is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming 
and appreciates any assistance on environmental issues. 
GLOBE, a hands-on science and education program focusing on 
earth system science, is funded by NASA and the National 
Science Foundation in cooperation with the State Department 
and several U.S. universities.  The program allows primary 
and secondary school students to collect environmental data 
and communicate with scientists via the internet.  More than 
19,000 schools in 109 countries are participating in the 
worldwide effort, and to date students have reported over 16 
million measurements in fields from climate to hydrology. 
BLAKE