VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0660/01 1000855
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 100855Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7761
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000660 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION; US EMBARGO ON 
CUBA; LATIN AMERICAN DEBATE ON BIO-FUELS; US-ARGENTINE BILATERAL 
RELATIONSHIP; 04/09/07; BUENOS AIRES 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend international stories focus on an alleged decline in 
neo-conservatives' clout on the Bush administration; a reported 
reduction in popular support for the US embargo imposed on Cuba; a 
debate in Latin America about the bio-fuels option; and the status 
of the US-Argentine bilateral relationship. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS 
 
- "The Decline of Bush's 'Neocons'" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (04/08) "Once upon a time, 
neo-conservatives thought that George W. Bush was the president of 
whom they had always dreamt. It happened shortly after the September 
11 attacks, when the Republican who came from Texas announced to the 
world his 'pre-emptive war' doctrine. 
 
"However, their illusion gradually vanished. Today, the toughest and 
most ideology-driven 'hawks' in control of the US foreign policy 
believe that Bush lost his command. The debacle in Iraq, lack of 
progress with Iran and North Korea and the continued threat posed by 
terrorist groups like al Qaeda and Hezbollah prompted Bush to give 
an opportunity to his Secretary of State Condoleezza's Rice more 
realistic discourse. 
 
"Nevertheless, 'neo-cons' perceive all this as their own withdrawal 
and that of the US, as well as the Bush administration's lack of 
competitiveness in its most valued project - the downfall of Saddam 
Hussein and the establishment of a Western democracy in the heart of 
the Middle East." 
 
- "A Corpse" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," penned 
(04/08) "For a long time, the embargo imposed on Cuba has become one 
of the most noteworthy unburied political 'corpses' in the US 
strategy towards Fidel Castro. 
 
"The regime used this pressure to proclaim a state of war that was 
specifically justified by the blockade, which also fostered some 
predictable form of nationalism in a proud people who did not react 
as the drafters of said 45-year-long policy had imagined. It is hard 
to tell what would have occurred on the island if, instead, an open 
trade policy had flooded Cuba with US tourists and merchandise. 
Possibly, the regime would not have changed, but perhaps some of its 
policies would have. China and Vietnam are just a couple of examples 
of what this scenario would have been like." 
 
- "An exhilarating debate" 
 
Ricardo Kirschbaum, general editor of leading "Clarin," opines 
(04/08) "Washington never liked Mercosur (trade bloc) because it 
always preferred to negotiate individual deals with every single 
country... 
 
"Washington's stance has been consistent and was made public every 
time there was an attempt to get united in defense of the common 
interests of the (countries of the) region. 
 
"However, it is also true that Chavez adds major political weight to 
Mercosur and raises its profile through challenging mega-projects 
that will be funded by Venezuelan oil surplus like, for instance, 
the Southern gas pipe line... and the Bank of the South, which is 
questioned by Brazil. 
 
"The new thing is the debate about bio-fuels... Both Fidel Castro 
and Hugo Chavez agree in attempting to spoil Brazil's closeness to 
Washington in this regard. 
 
"Clearly enough, Venezuela sells abundant oil to the US and no one 
would dare question this trade. Why then should Brazil be questioned 
for the bio-fuels issue? Brazil is a country with major energy 
problems but it has the means to reduce its (oil) dependence. 
 
"It is a crucial issue in which the countries of the region should 
make a decision according to their national interests... An 
exhilarating debate is taking place and Argentina cannot miss it." 
 
- "The other country that hides its bonanza" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by its political editor 
Eduardo van der Kooy, who comments (04/08) "... After three and a 
half years in office, (President Nestor) Kirchner is well-known in 
Washington, and cards (about the US-Argentine bilateral 
 
 
relationship) seem to be laid on the table. 
 
"Ties between President Kirchner and George W. Bush will maintain 
their current state of indifference, which led the White House to 
prioritize Lula da Silva... Lula is now the strong and trustworthy 
man in the region in the framework of the imaginary Buenos 
Aires-Brasilia axis. 
 
"Why? Lula is not reported to have made major concessions to 
Washington, quite the contrary. Brazil steadily continues stating 
its points of view on international trade and it has indirectly been 
helped by some gestures of the Argentine Government. One of them was 
the useless provocation represented by Hugo Chavez's anti-Bush rally 
in Ferro during Bush's Latin American tour... Others were Kirchner's 
repeated gestures of rapprochement to the caudillo... 
 
"This behavior of Kirchner's raises mistrust. Also, US politicians 
and legislators do not understand either why the President, who has 
the right to be re-elected and has sound social support, might 
prefer to cede his turn to his wife. 
 
"... If Argentina's political future were to be ruled by the will of 
the Kirchner couple, the political and institutional system would be 
indefinitely fragile. 
 
"Washington cannot understand Kirchner. Meanwhile, Cristina raises 
expectations and curiosity. The focus is placed on three aspects - 
the first Lady's objective of improving the quality of institutions, 
particularly, the judicial system; the road her hypothetical 
government could follow vis-`-vis the country's ties to Chavez; and 
her shrewdness in building a two-headed administration, with her 
husband in the shadows. 
 
"Her meeting with Venezuelan Israeli Associations, which have a 
tense relationship with Chavez, whose administration is critical of 
Israel and an ally of Iran, had a positive impact on Washington. 
 
"Obviously enough, these signs are satisfactory for Washington, 
although they do not seem enough to dispel doubts regarding 
Argentine-Venezuelan ties... Nothing leads us to believe that she 
could have a different view from that of her husband about the 
benefits of Argentina's ties to Caracas." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE