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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 002908 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL CH IR
SUBJECT: U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW 
COMMISSION ROUNDTABLE WITH ACADEMY OF MILITARY SCIENCE 
SCHOLARS 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Scholars from the People's Liberation Army- 
affiliated Academy of Military Science expressed the 
view to a United States-China Economic and Security 
Review Commission delegation that while United States' 
global strike capabilities may raise the threshold for 
the United States resorting to a nuclear attack, the 
capability is destabilizing because it may cause 
countries to act irrationally in the event of an 
attack.  The academics stated that they do not view 
the global strike capability as a credible force 
against an advanced military.  The United States and 
China have numerous channels for communication and now 
need to focus on improving mutual confidence.  China 
is not adjusting its military modernization program or 
force structure in response to lessons learned from 
the Iraq war.  Many in China view the annual reports 
to Congress on Chinese military power as a vestige of 
the Cold War that damages bilateral relations.  China 
is not actively engaged in training African militaries 
or increasing its military sales to African countries, 
the scholars maintained.  China will not take active 
offensive measures unless China is attacked.  Chinese 
academics are undecided on whether a cyber-attack 
constitutes an act of war that can be responded to 
with military action.  China's 2006 Defense White 
Paper expanded the PLA's mission to include protecting 
China's development interests around the world.  The 
PLA is developing its capabilities to project power to 
protect China's interest regionally and globally, the 
scholars said.  End Summary. 
 
Global Strike 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) A United States-China Economic and Security 
Review Commission (USCC) delegation led by USCC Chair 
Carolyn Bartholomew held a roundtable with academics 
from the PLA-affiliated Academy of Military Science in 
Beijing on April 23.  Participants are listed in para 
¶13.  In respons to Commissioner Wortzel's query on 
global strike, Senior Colonel Nie Songlai stated that 
the United States' global strike concept, the ability 
to strike early and quickly anywhere in the world 
without violating a third country's air space, does 
not contribute to strategic stability.  In a 
theoretical war with China, global strike might 
provide the United States command authority with new 
options.  The United States could hit key command and 
control targets and other facilities but it would not 
be able to predict China's response.  When threatened 
by a "global strike," China would not have much time 
to respond and thus might act irrationally.  At a 
strategic level, employing a global strike capability 
would be a destabilizing factor.  Global strike 
provides more options at a tactical and operational 
level, making it less likely that the United States 
would resort to a nuclear attack.  Global strike is 
not, however, a credible force to be used against an 
advanced force such as the PLA.  Global strike may be 
useful against individual targets but not against the 
capabilities of an advanced power.  China's nuclear 
forces are secure and survivable, Nie stated. 
 
Opportunity for New Channels of Communication? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The United States and China already have 
numerous channels of communication at the political, 
economic and military levels, Nie stated in response 
to Commissioner D'Amato's concerns about the need to 
improve confidence building measures to prevent 
accidental military events from escalating.  He agreed 
that the countries now need to enhance confidence 
measures.  For the two militaries, this can be done 
through joint exercises and better communication 
between strategic-level leaders.  Chairman of the 
Joint Chiefs of Staff General Pace noted during his 
visit that he does not view China as a threat.  Nie 
said China is not a threat and it is not China's 
intent to be a threat.  China does not regard the 
United States as a threat and defines the relationship 
as a constructive partnership.  Likewise the United 
States defines China as a responsible stakeholder. 
 
BEIJING 00002908  002 OF 004 
 
 
The two countries are learning more about each other's 
intent, Nie stated. 
 
Lessons Learned From Iraq War 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In response to Vice Chair Blumenthal's query 
on whether China is adjusting its modernization 
program after studying events in Iraq and in response 
to the United States decision to increase its ground 
forces, Major Liu Lin said the United States military 
has realized as a result of the current conflict in 
Iraq that it can not win a war with only air and naval 
power.  The United States needs to increase its ground 
forces, but from the Chinese military perspective this 
is just an adjustment in the United States' strategy. 
The trend in the revolution in military affairs is 
still toward informationalization and air, naval and 
missile systems are very important.  China will 
continue to follow this trend.  The most challenging 
task for China is Taiwan, which is a different type of 
security challenges than the ones the United States is 
facing.  So while the United States may adjust its 
force structure to increase its number of troops, 
China will continue to focus on developing its air and 
naval capabilities, Liu stated. 
 
¶5. (SBU) China's military forces and those of the 
United States are at different levels of 
modernization, stated Senior Colonel Ren Xiangqun. 
China is focused on its air force and navy because the 
army is the strongest branch of the Chinese services. 
The PLA takes a balanced view of developing its 
capabilities as presented in the 2006 Defense White 
Paper, Senior Colonel Nie stated.  Each service makes 
a unique contribution to the resolution of a war, and 
thus China's military develops all service branches in 
an "all-around way."  The army is working on improving 
its mobility.  The air force is working on improving 
its offensive strike capability.  The navy is working 
on transitioning to a blue water navy.  The Second 
Artillery Corps is working to improve its ability to 
combine nuclear and conventional forces. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Even though the United States is the world's 
sole superpower, there are some conflicts that the 
United States military power cannot solve, stated 
Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo.  For example, there are 
so many potential adversaries in the "War on Terror" 
including Al-Qaeda and militias in Iraq, Afghanistan 
and Iran, that the war on terror must be solved 
through political and economic means.  Zhao stated 
that the United States can win a conflict militarily 
but cannot win the war through military rather than 
political and economic means. 
 
Misunderstandings Due to Lack of Trust 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In response to Commissioner Fielder's 
question about improving transparency, Nie responded 
that misunderstandings between the United States and 
China are not due to a lack of communication and 
transparency but rather due to a lack of trust.  Nie 
emphatically stated that misunderstandings result from 
the United States' refusal to believe what China says. 
The two countries need to provide clearer and detailed 
information about their intent.  China's grand 
strategy is peaceful development.  It adopts a 
defensive military strategy.  Its military budget is 
in line with its modernization strategy.  The United 
States insists that China is not fully disclosing its 
military budget but the United States also has 
"undeclared military budgets, and countries have 
different accounting methods, Nie stated. 
 
China Views Reports as Vestige of "Cold War Thinking" 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The United States' annual reports on Chinese 
military power do not play a constructive role in the 
bilateral relationship, stated Senior Colonel Zhao 
Xiaozhu.  Many in China wonder why the United States 
publishes such a report and say that the report 
reminds them of the Cold War.  The United States has 
only published military reports on China and Russia. 
 
BEIJING 00002908  003 OF 004 
 
 
Vice Chair Blumenthal responded that the reports are 
Congressionally mandated and required by law.  The 
United States Congress is representative of the people 
and the people are concerned about a growing military 
whose intentions are not clear.  The United States has 
published papers on China and Russia because, unlike 
other countries, the intent of the military 
modernization program of China and Russia is unclear. 
Senior Colonel Nie Songlai suggested that the true 
purpose of the report is to justify United States' 
arms sales to Taiwan.  Chair Bartholomew responded 
that China's ASAT test and the Chinese submarine 
surfacing near the USS Kitty Hawk surprised many 
people in the United States and left them wondering 
about China's intentions.  The United States must plan 
for worst case scenarios, she noted. 
 
China's Military Activities in Africa 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) In response to Chairperson Bartholomew's 
inquiry, Senior Colonel Zhu Yuxing stated that China 
has sent soldiers to serve as UN peacekeepers and 
there are African military cadets studying in Chinese 
defense universities.  Zhu denied that China is 
training African troops or increasing its arm sales to 
Africa.  Senior Colonel Nie Songlai quipped that China 
is not planning on establishing an "Africa Command." 
 
China's Active Defense Does Not Equate to Preemptive 
Action 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) China's active defense military doctrine 
consists of two parts: first to maintain a defensive 
posture on the strategic level and second, on the 
operational and tactical level to be prepared to take 
offensive action, stated Major Liu in response to 
Commissioner Wortzel's inquiry.  China must first be 
attacked before it will make "offensive strikes," 
stated Liu. 
 
Does Cyber-Attack Constitute an Act of War? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) There are many opinions in China about 
whether a cyber-attack constitutes an act of war, 
stated Major Liu.  Some argue that a cyber-attack on a 
computer network is an act of war while others claim 
that a cyber-attack must be accompanied by a material 
attack to be defined as an act of war.  Commissioner 
Wortzel raised the question of Chinese views on 
whether a country that perceives it has suffered a 
cyber-attack can respond with a material attack.  Liu 
responded that if the cyber-attack occurs on a 
military computer system then perhaps a country can 
respond with a physical attack.  Senior Colonel Zhao 
Xiaozhu added that if the attack is launched by a 
military than a country can respond with military 
action, but cautioned that these days anyone can 
launch a cyber-attack. 
 
Securing Energy Supplies 
------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Securing energy supplies is a nontraditional 
security challenge faced by many countries, stated 
Senior Colonel Nie Songlai in response to Vice Chair 
Blumenthal's' question on what type of investments 
China is making to secure its energy supplies.  China 
is trying to adopt an energy strategy with a 
comprehensive approach.  China is not just trying to 
secure lines of energy supply but also to improve its 
energy efficiency, expand its domestic production, 
diversify its sources of energy and build a strategic 
reserve.  At the moment China's navy does not have 
enough capability to deal with securing energy supply 
lines on a global or regional basis.  China's 2006 
Defense White Paper included a statement on the PLA's 
missions, one of which is to defend China's right to 
development and its developmental interests in the 
region and the world.  China is modernizing the PLA to 
defend China's interests.  This is a new requirement 
for the military and now the military must increase 
its ability to project its capabilities. 
 
 
BEIJING 00002908  004 OF 004 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Participants: 
 
United States-China Economic and Security Review 
Commission: 
 
Carolyn Bartholomew, Chairperson 
Daniel Blumenthal, Vice Chair 
¶C. Richard D'Amato, Commissioner 
Jeffery Fielder, Commissioner 
Larry M. Wortzel, Commissioner 
Marta McLellan, Analyst 
 
China's Academy of Military Science: 
 
Nie Songlai, Senior Colonel 
Bao Bin, Senior Colonel 
Zhao Xiaozhu, Senior Colonel, Department of World 
Military Studies 
Zhu Yuxing, Senior Colonel, Vice Director of the 
Foreign Affairs Office 
Ren Xiangqun, Senior Colonel, Department of Strategic 
Studies, East Asia 
Liu Lin, Major, Department of World Military Studies 
 
¶14. (SBU) The USCC delegation has cleared this 
message. 
RANDT