VZCZCXRO4805
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAK #0944 1141010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241010Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1815
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA IMMEDIATE 1881
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP:PDUSDP/ISA:EUR/ISA:NESA/DSCA//

UNCLAS ANKARA 000944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEXT PRESIDENT: FM ABDULLAH GUL 
 
REF: ANKARA 916 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U) The suspense is over.  PM Tayyip Erdogan, at an April 
24 meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), 
announced that FM and Deputy PM Abdullah Gul is AKP's 
candidate to be Turkey's 11th president.  AKP has the votes 
to elect its candidate by the third round, all but assuring 
Gul's ascension to head of state. 
 
¶2. (U) After months of speculation, largely focused on 
whether Erdogan would run, AKP has put its top diplomat and 
world statesman forward as its presidential candidate. 
Erdogan's announcement was greeted with tumultuous applause 
and cheers from assembled AKP MPs.  Gul's nomination makes 
sense for AKP: 
 
--It places the top three AKP figures in the country in the 
top three positions:  Gul as President and head of state; 
Bulent Arinc as speaker of parliament (and number two in 
protocol rank after the President); and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 
who remains by far the country's most popular political 
figure, as PM in the run-up to parliamentary elections later 
this year. 
 
--It moves into in Ataturk's seat in Cankaya an 
English-speaking world statesman who can, as Erdogan has 
emphasized in recent weeks, represent Turkey ably at home and 
abroad. 
 
--It puts a "headscarf" in Cankaya, the first real victory 
for the pious in AKP after nearly five years in power.  This 
was the longest-running objection to Erdogan, whose wife 
Emine is covered; Gul's wife, Hayrinussa, wears a headscarf 
as well. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Gul has been a figure on the Turkish national 
political scene since 1991, when he was first elected to 
parliament as an MP for Necmettin Erbakan's pro-Islam Welfare 
Party.  Prior to that, he worked for eight years as an 
economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah. 
Reelected to parliament in 1995, he served as State Minister 
and government spokesman in then-PM Erbakan's short-lived 
government.  Gul became a founding member of AKP in August 
2001, where he has always been both Erdogan's closest 
political partner and rival.  Gul served as Prime Minister 
from December 3, 2002 until March 14, 2003, when Erdogan was 
sworn in.  He has been a leading figure in Turkey's push for 
EU membership; the drama of Gul's late-night arrival in 
Luxembourg on October 3, 2005 to launch Turkey's formal 
candidacy riveted Turks.  As FM, Gul enjoys good relations 
with many of his European and Middle Eastern counterparts. 
Gul, less fiery and more predictable than Erdogan, presents 
to the world the reasonable, carefully considered face of 
Turkish politics. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  In announcing Gul's candidacy, Erdogan stated that 
he had taken the (anti-AKP) arrows over the past months, 
leaving Gul virtually untouched.  As Foreign Minister, Gul 
has maintained good relations with the military, who will 
have to consider how they will deal with a non-Erdogan AKPer 
-- with a headscarved wife -- in Cankaya.  Of the "top three" 
AKP, Gul is arguably the most palatable to the military, 
though he carries the weight of AKP outreach to Hamas, of 
which the military strongly disapproved.  For AKP, he is a 
consensus candidate around whom all can rally; he has little 
of Erdogan's baggage.  For the opposition, Gul is less easy 
to bash than Erdogan.  He has carried Turkey's flag to the 
EU, as well as on national consensus issues such as Cyprus 
and Armenia, most recently visiting the "TRNC" ten days ago. 
 
¶5. (U)  The presidential election calendar, as just announced 
by parliament's consultative board, will be as follows: 
 
--Friday, April 27: first round 
--Wednesday, May 2: second round 
--Wednesday, May 9: third round 
--Tuesday, May 15 (if needed): fourth and final round. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON