VZCZCXRO7905
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1166/01 1071215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171215Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5661
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0015

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND DRL 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATION 
FOLLOWING PM'S PARLIAMENTARY ADDRESS 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 00978 
 
     ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 00494 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001166  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  In a meeting with opposition parliamentary 
leaders, Ambassador explained planned USG Title 1 food 
assistance to help relieve economic strain on urban poor and 
solicited leaders' views on political openness outside Addis 
Ababa.  Ambassador noted that the food would be used to 
complement recently announced GoE emergency action plans 
aimed at quelling rising inflation in food prices, though USG 
aid would not in itself affect market prices.  Leaders had 
mixed reactions, though much of this is likely from being 
poorly informed on GoE decisions.  In describing the 
political environment in their individual constituencies, 
they were typically downbeat, stating that the 
democratization process has stalled.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On April 3, Ambassador and Poloff (notetaker) met with 
opposition parliamentary leaders: Lidetu Ayalew, United 
Ethiopian Democratic Party ) Medhin (UEDP-Medhin); Dr. 
Merera Gudina and Beyene Petros, United Ethiopian Democratic 
Forces (UEDF); Bulcha Dimeksa, Oromo Federal Democratic 
Movement; Temesgen Zewdie, Coalition for Unity and Democracy 
Party (CUDP); and independent (and former President of 
Ethiopia) Negasso Gidada. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
PM OUTLINES PLAN FOR FOOD AID, OPPOSITION MIXED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In his March 29, six-month report to Parliament (ref 
A), one of the key themes PM Meles addressed was emergency 
food aid aimed at quelling rising food prices in urban 
centers.  He noted that rising food prices account for half 
of the country's 16.6 percent (last six months, annualized) 
inflation rate.  As inflation is affecting urban dwellers 
more than the rural, primarily (subsistence) 
agricultural-based population, the PM said that the GoE's 
program of emergency food distribution would be focused on 
larger cities.  He announced a plan to tap the country's 
wheat reserves for the infusion of emergency food, which 
would be distributed in 25 kilogram bags to the most needy, 
starting in Addis Ababa, followed by other cities.  This 
would be done every 4 to 6 weeks, until prices stabilize and 
farmers cease hoarding their crops, which the PM asserts is a 
major cause of the inflation. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The PM's plan was met with some skepticism.  In a 
subsequent private meeting with leaders, Ambassador noted 
that the USG plans to supply Ethiopia with Title 1 food 
assistance (ref B), which would complement the PM's plan. 
(NOTE: USG emergency food assistance was not mentioned in the 
PM,s speech. END NOTE) The Ambassador stressed that USG 
assistance would not be in quantities large enough to alter 
market prices, but nonetheless, public perception of this 
help must be considered. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Reaction by opposition leaders was mixed, with some 
supporting the plan of food distribution and USG assistance, 
but others strongly opposed.  Bulcha stated that he and the 
OFDM have no opposition, but noted that, as a former 
economist, he feels that a price stabilization fund would be 
more effective in the long run.  Beyene also voiced support, 
but expressed concern whether the food would ultimately be 
distributed equitably.  He said that in his constituency, aid 
given under the Safety Net program largely is distributed to 
ruling party supporters first, with the remainder then going 
to opposition.  Though food aid from the U.S. is generally 
welcome, Lidetu said, the GoE's plan is "the wrong strategy," 
and rising prices of inputs for farmers will squeeze them as 
grain prices decrease.  Temesgen, much more fiery than usual, 
echoed this concern, saying, "The PM,s hoarding excuse is 
not true.  We need to expose structural weaknesses in the 
market instead," he commented.  Ex-President Negasso labeled 
the plan a "war against the farmers," also noting the rising 
price of farm inputs such as fertilizer.  "U.S. subsidized 
farm goods would be directly harming Ethiopian farmers," he 
continued, saying that the program should be viewed as 
interference in the market. 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001166  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
LEADERS BEMOAN POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Questioned about the current state of political 
openness for opposition parties outside of Addis Ababa, most 
leaders were typically downbeat about the state of affairs 
for their party.  Temesgen, in his heated tone of the day, 
said that "people are simply afraid" to talk about political 
matters and that his constituents are not happy. 
Furthermore, he noted the general disappointment with the 
trajectory of political space for opposition parties, saying 
that at this stage in Ethiopian democracy, opposition parties 
"have to be able to stand on their own feet," but instead are 
feeling ineffective and marginalized.  Lidetu echoed 
Temesgen's frustration, saying that from his observation 
people are growing increasingly bitter about prospects of 
political reform.  Unless the ruling EPRDF party makes 
significant efforts to allow the opposition to operate, "the 
process of democratization is in danger."  Negasso, in an 
alarmist note, commented that the lack of general 
population's ability to speak out politically is creating an 
environment which would serve to foster religious extremism 
as a surrogate for political expression.  Beyene, who is 
typically more tempered in his criticism, said that he was 
disappointed in the PM's address to Parliament in that it did 
not touch on the state of internal democratic issues, and 
felt that the PM was dismissive of the opposition's 
questions.  "We have no interest in that place (Parliament), 
if our point of view is not taken seriously," Beyene said, a 
refrain he has made in recent months regarding perceived 
diminishing effectiveness for opposition in Parliament. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
COMMENT: LACK OF INCLUSION LIKELY CAUSE OF IRE 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. (SBU) In their meeting with the Ambassador, opposition 
party leaders expressed their increasing frustration stemming 
from their feelings of political marginalization.  Though 
their specific concerns were generally varied and of 
differing degrees of dissatisfaction, they were unanimous in 
opinions that democratization is stalling, despite recent 
notable successes through the inter-party dialogue process. 
Opposition leaders often show greater discouragement in 
discussing GoE policies that they are ill-informed of, and 
decisions that have been made without opposition 
consultation.  Their mixed reaction to Title 1 food 
assistance likely stems as much from lack of background 
knowledge as genuine disagreement. 
YAMAMOTO