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Viewing cable 07ACCRA811, IMF MISSION: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ACCRA811 2007-04-16 11:11 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Accra
VZCZCXRO6496
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHAR #0811/01 1061111
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161111Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4184
INFO RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000811 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR D PETERS STATE AF/W AF/EPS: THASTINGS EB/IFB.USAID/AFR/W 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN GH
SUBJECT: IMF MISSION: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Not for 
distribution outside of USG or internet distribution. 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary.  IMF Resrep (protect) provided local 
embassy representatives an upbeat assessment of the IMF 
Mission that concluded on March 28.  Follow-on discussions 
with GoG officials echoed the positive readout.  After a 
somewhat disappointing Mission in February when fiscal data 
were worse than expected and Article IV discussions were not 
completed, the IMF was pleased with the extensive work the 
GoG had done to put together a realistic fiscal consolidation 
package to reverse fiscal slippage.  The key step that the 
GoG indicated it would take is to move to full cost recovery 
for utilities before the end of 2007.  During the course of 
the Mission, there were also preliminary discussions about a 
Policy Support Instrument (PSI) that the IMF and GoG have 
both privately indicated they expect to continue on the 
margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.  End Summary. 
 
Fiscal Consolidation Measures 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  The IMF Mission in February had been slated to 
complete Article IV consultations.  However, the GoG asked 
the IMF to return in March in order to give them time to 
finalize all the relevant economic data and to consider how 
to address the quite serious fiscal deficit, which is 
estimated at between 7% and 7.5% of GDP for 2006, against a 
projected 4.5%.  IMF Resrep said that the Fund was impressed 
with the extensive work the GoG had done to prepare a strong, 
realistic set of fiscal measures.  If no policy measures are 
taken, the fiscal deficit for 2007 is estimated to be about 
8%.  Under the plan set out by GoG, it will be about 6.5%, 
with a further 1% reduction in 2008.  While still somewhat 
high, the IMF believes the package is realistic and will send 
a good message to markets that the GoG is staying on track. 
The estimates take into account some upcoming one-off 
expenditures including hosting an AU Summit, the African Cup 
of Nations Soccer tournament in 2008, as well as the 
political realities related to expenditure choices that come 
with a pending election in 2008 (e.g., it will be difficult 
to make strong progress on rightsizing the public sector 
before the election). 
 
3.  (SBU)  The main fiscal risks faced by Ghana are 
financing/subsidies to utilities, money-losing state-owned 
enterprises, and the public sector wage bill.  The headline 
measure that the GoG will take to address these is moving to 
full cost recovery of utilities.  Currently the government is 
absorbing the increased costs, not passing them to consumers. 
 As of May 1, 2007, all commercial customers will pay full 
cost.  Residential customers will pay full cost as of August 
1.  The government is also seeking to accelerate 
privatization of state-owned enterprises, most immediately 
Ghana Telecom, which the government is counting on to bring 
at least $250 million, according to a Deputy Governor of the 
Bank of Ghana (BoG).  The plans to address the public sector 
wage bill are less well developed.  The GoG is committed to 
remaining within the expenditure targets set in the 2007 
budget but that level (which amounts to 9.6% of GDP) is not 
sustainable.  Legislation to establish a Fair Wages 
Commission, the first step towards rationalizing pay and 
rightsizing, has been passed but not signed in to law.  Our 
BoG contact said the progress to date on Public Sector reform 
appeared mostly cosmetic to him. 
 
4. (SBU)  As a means to ensure long term commitment to sound 
macro management, the GoG is considering the idea of a Fiscal 
Responsibility Act.  The Act could set out basic rules on 
things such as government borrowing and expenditure that 
would be binding on all governments.  The Deputy Governor at 
BoG believes a Fiscal Responsibility Act would be another 
means of sending a positive signal to markets that Ghana's 
good performance is here to stay. 
 
Going to International Capital Markets 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The macro framework that Ghana has set out includes 
non-concessional borrowing from international capital 
markets.  While the details and amount have not been 
finalized, we expect the GoG to offer a five year, $500 
million sovereign bond later this year, with $250 million in 
priority project expenditures slated for 2007.  Almost all of 
the $250 million will be invested in the energy sector, with 
a small amount devoted to roads, per Deputy FinMin Osei.  To 
ensure wise expenditure of resources and development of 
projects that are attractive to the private sector, the GoG 
is forming a Value for Money unit to analyze proposed 
projects.  Dr. Osei said that the GoG was very aware of how 
 
ACCRA 00000811  002 OF 002 
 
 
unforgiving markets could be and the GoG was going to be very 
careful about making sure the bond offering was well 
prepared.  He said the earliest he expected to go forward 
would be June but that September was perhaps more realistic. 
Note: Parliamentary approval is required before the GoG can 
move forward.  End note. 
 
PSI? 
--- 
 
6. (SBU) The IMF Resrep said that the GoG and IMF had held 
discussions, not/not negotiations on a possible PSI.  The IMF 
Resrep said he expected that consultations on a PSI would 
continue on the margins of the Spring Bank/Fund meetings. 
This information was confirmed by GoG officials who further 
indicated that a key issue was timing, i.e. before or after 
going to capital markets. 
 
Comment 
------- 
7. (SBU)  The theme of wanting to "do it right" when Ghana 
goes to capital markets is pervasive among GoG contacts. 
They are clearly focused on keeping Ghana's economic 
performance on track and the importance of sending the right 
signals to the market to keep costs down and to avoid 
accumulating unsustainable debt.  Privatization of the 
remaining SOEs has been and remains a real challenge.  The 
privatization of Westel, the second state-owned telecom 
company, seemed to have been "done" but now we are hearing 
that it has not been finalized and there may be concerns from 
top officials in the government that the price is not high 
enough.  Neither the Deputy Governor at BoG or Deputy 
Minister of Finance Osei could confirm if the deal would go 
through.  Ghana Telecom (GT) promises to be equally 
challenging.  Appointment of a transactions advisor has been 
pending for several months.  A choice has been made but not 
announced because one of the losing bidders is challenging 
the selection.  In addition, the winning advisor's stated 
timeline is 15-18 months, well past the end of 2007.  When 
asked if privatization of GT would really occur this year, 
Deputy FinMin Osei replied "It must."  In addition, the dark 
cloud of energy shortages looms over the bright outlook.  The 
planned tariff increase to full cost recovery is welcome and 
noteworthy but must be accompanied by investment in the 
sector, improved collection rates, and increased productivity 
to dampen potential inflationary effects of the higher energy 
costs. 
BRIDGEWATER