VZCZCXRO9750
PP RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTC #0418/01 0671355
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081355Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8426
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHAT/AMCONSUL AMSTERDAM 2417
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:  NEW COALITION PASSES 
FIRST MAJOR TEST 
 
THE HAGUE 00000418  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Dutch voters gave Prime Minster Balkenende's new 
center-left coalition government a conditional vote of confidence in 
the March 7 provincial elections.  As a result of these elections, 
the three coalition parties will hold a slim majority (41 out of 75 
seats) in the upper house of Parliament when its membership is 
selected in late May.  In a replay of the November, 2006 lower house 
elections, however, the opposition Socialist Party (SP) tripled its 
representation -- exposing, again, the relative weakness of the 
center-left Labor Party (PvdA) within the coalition -- while small 
parties such as the Christian Union (CU) and Party for the Animals 
(PvdD) also consolidated their recent gains.  The March 7 results 
are expected to strengthen the coalition partners' determination to 
make the new government a success in the face of a large but divided 
opposition in both houses of parliament.  End Summary. 
 
TWO-STAGE ELECTION FOR UPPER HOUSE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On March 7, Dutch voters went to the polls for the third time 
in one year, this time to elect members of the regional "provincial 
councils."  Since the importance of the once-powerful provincial 
governments has declined markedly over the years, many voters 
consider the provincial elections to be largely irrelevant, and 
voter turnout is traditionally low by Dutch standards (i.e., only 
46-47 percent.)  The one significant power retained by the 
provincial councils, however, is to elect the 75 members of the 
upper house of the Dutch Parliament (aka "First Chamber" or 
"Senate.")  This election will take place on May 29 and will mirror 
exactly the results of the March 7 election. 
 
¶3. (U) As the upper house has the power to block legislation, 
failure by the coalition parties to win a majority of seats could 
have hindered the new government's ability to pass and implement 
legislation on a number of key areas.  Given growing support in the 
polls for opposition parties -- especially SP and the 
anti-immigrant, anti-Islam Freedom (PVV) party of Geert Wilders -- 
the lukewarm public attitude toward the new government, and recent 
heated debates on dual citizenship and an Iraq inquiry that put 
coalition partner PvdA increasingly on the defensive,  many 
observers believed that a divided parliament was a real possibility. 
 In the end, however, the three coalition parties squeaked out a 
narrow victory, winning (in effect) 41 out of 75 seats.  (See para 9 
for anticipated allocation of upper house seats by party.) 
 
COALITION HANGS ON TO A MAJORITY -- JUST 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Although CDA will have lost one seat in the upper house, 
Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende was visibly relieved that CDA, 
with 22 seats, will remain the largest party in the chamber, and 
that the coalition will also have a majority.  Both the CDA and the 
CU -- which will double its representation from 2 to 4 seats -- 
viewed the results as an endorsement of their decision to join the 
coalition government and a mandate to pursue the objectives of the 
coalition accord.    The result also highlighted -- again -- the 
critical role of the CU in the coalition, as without its 4 seats the 
CDA and PvdA would have no majority. 
 
¶5. (U) In contrast to the CDA and CU, the PvdA took another big hit 
in the polls and will lose 4 of its current seats (going from 19 to 
15) -- a sign that it has still not fully convinced its membership 
of the merits of joining the coalition.  SP and GreenLeft have 
effectively wooed PvdA voters by capitalizing on the PvdA's 
concessions in the coalition accord, such as the decision to drop 
its earlier demand for an inquiry into the Dutch decision to provide 
support for military operations in Iraq.  PvdA also came under 
attack during the campaign from the right over the dual citizenship 
of two PvdA Muslim cabinet members and one PvdA Muslim MP. In 
interviews after the election, however, PvdA leader Wouter Bos put a 
brave face on the result by noting that the PvdA was predicted to 
lose even more votes to SP, but managed to do no worse than it did 
in the Second Chamber (lower house) elections last November. 
 
OPPOSITION GROWING, BUT NOT UNITED 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Among the opposition parties, SP was ecstatic about the third 
major victory in a row and tripling its seats from 4 to 12 in the 
upper house.  SP has consolidated its position as a major force on 
the Dutch political scene and its long-term goal remains government 
participation.  The conservative Liberal (VVD) party scored better 
than in November and retained 15 seats in the upper house, partly 
thanks to the lack of competition from the right (Wilders' PVV chose 
not to contest the provincial elections) compounded by a conscious 
effort by VVD leaders to solicit Wilders' voters by endorsing his 
crusade against dual citizenship of immigrants.  Of the smaller 
opposition parties, the Party for Animals (PvdD) built on its 
November victory by winning a seat in the upper house, while the 
 
THE HAGUE 00000418  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
former government party Democrats 66 (D66) was decimated almost into 
oblivion, retaining only 1 seat. 
 
¶7. (U) SP leader Jan Marijnissen was pleased that a year with three 
elections was over.  Now it is time, he said to give the new 
coalition government the chance to implement its ambitious plans. 
Unlike VVD, SP welcomes the new coalition's social plans in 
particular, and Marijnissen reaffirmed that SP is giving the 
coalition "the benefit of the doubt."  He also implicitly reaffirmed 
that the opposition is seriously divided.  The coalition parties 
were relieved that with a small majority in both houses of 
parliament they can now start implementing their plans. 
 
COMMENT: 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Well aware of their shaky electoral support, CDA and PvdA 
know that they can only regain the voters' confidence in the coming 
years if they succeed in turning the coalition into a success.  They 
are bound to benefit from the stabilizing factor that the Christian 
Union represents in the coalition government -- as opposed to the 
volatile D66, which brought down the last Balkenende government -- 
but also will be, to some degree, a hostage to their junior 
partner's socially conservative agenda.  While the coalition holds 
the slimmest of majorities in both houses of parliament, it can take 
some comfort from the fact that the opposition is deeply divided, 
encompassing far-right, far-left, and single issue parties with few 
unifying interests.  The far-right and far-left have in the past 
occasionally found common ground -- as in their shared opposition to 
the draft EU constitutional treaty -- but this will be the exception 
rather than the norm.  After a year of elections and political 
turbulence, therefore, prospects for coalition stability are 
relatively good for the next few years.  Unforeseen calamities 
apart, Dutch voters should not have to return to the voting booths 
until the European Parliament elections in June 2009.  END COMMENT 
 
ALLOCATION OF UPPER HOUSE SEATS BY PARTY: 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  Although the actual allocation of positions in the 75 seat upper 
house will not officially take place until May 29, based on the 
provincial election results it is anticipated to look like this: 
 
Coalition Parties (Total - 41): 
 
- Christian Democratic Alliance (CDA) -- 22 
- Labor Party (PvdA)                  -- 15 
- Christian Union (CU)      -- 4 
 
Opposition Parties 
 
- Party of Freedom and Democracy (VVD) -- 15 
- Socialist Party (SP)      -- 12 
- GreenLeft (GL)       -- 4 
- Calvinist Party (SGP)      -- 1 
- Democrats 66 (D66)          -- 1 
- Party for the Animals (PvdD)        -- 1 
 
Blakeman