VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #0171/01 0740550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150550Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9638

UNCLAS TALLINN 000171 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EN RS PHUM SOCI
SUBJECT:  ETHNIC RUSSIAN ESTONIANS - TRENDS IN POLITICAL 
PARTICPATION 
 
REF:  A) TALLINN 79   B) TALLINN 106 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  In contrast to neighboring Latvia, 
Estonia's Russian-speaking minority exercises political 
will through mainstream, rather than ethnically-based, 
political parties.  Russian-centric parties are headed by 
fringe elements and have not generated anywhere near enough 
popular support to gain any seats in the last two 
parliamentary elections.  With the exception of the Bronze 
Soldier, hot-button ethnic topics including school reform 
and citizenship were largely non-issues in the recent 
elections.  The populist Center Party remains a strong 
favorite among Russian-speakers.  However, as social and 
political integration continues, the party may lose its 
tight hold on the ethnic Russian vote.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Although almost one-third of Estonia's population 
is Russian-speaking, Russian-centric parties generate very 
little popular support.  Russian-centric Party leaders in 
Estonia tend to be fanatical and base their platforms 
solely on polarizing issues like the Bronze Soldier.  These 
parties are meant to appeal to all Russian speaking 
minorities - in additions to Russians (who are about 26% of 
the population), there are also ethnic Ukrainians (2%), 
Byelorussians (1%) and small numbers of people from other 
parts of the former Soviet Union.  In the March 4 
parliamentary elections, neither of Estonia's two Russian- 
centric parties, the Constitution Party and the Russian 
Party, managed to come anywhere close to crossing the 5% 
threshold needed to gain a seat in Parliament.  Even in 
Tallinn's 2nd District, which includes the heavily ethnic- 
Russian borough of Lasnamae, the Constitution Party, which 
built its campaign largely on opposition to relocation of 
the Bronze Soldier monument (Refs A and B)-- an issue of 
significant importance to the ethnic Russian community -- 
earned only 2% of the vote.  The Russian Party fared even 
worse.  This is the second parliamentary election in a row 
where Russian-centric parties have failed to win any seats 
in parliament. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although the purely Russian-focused parties did 
poorly, the Center Party again fared exceptionally well in 
predominantly Russian-speaking areas.  Center won a 
landslide victory in heavily Russian Ida-Viru county with 
55% of the vote, up from 41% in 2003.  In Lasnamae, the 
Center Party earned 39% of the vote, 18% more than the 
Reform Party, the next highest vote-getter in the district. 
Center has consistently been the only major political party 
to actively court ethnic Russian voters as a group since 
the mid 1990s.  Since that time, Center has handled 
carefully hot button issues like language requirements, 
citizenship and, most recently, the Bronze soldier - 
cementing its support among Russian speakers.  Leaders in 
the Russian-speaking community have gravitated toward the 
Center Party.  A prime example is Mihhail Stalnuhhin, the 
Chairman of the Narva City Council (in Ida Viru County) who 
garnered 5474 votes in the Parliamentary elections - the 
tenth highest vote total in the country.  Faced with a 
choice between the fringe Russian-centric parties and 
Center, most Russian speaking voters feel that supporting 
the smaller, less-established parties is a waste of their 
vote. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Center Party's hold on Russian-speaking voters 
remains very strong.  However, some observers believe this 
is changing as integration of Estonia's minorities 
continues.  Vladmir Velman, a Center Party MP since 1995, 
told us he believes there is little ethnic political 
tension in Estonia.  Jevgenia Garanza, Deputy Editor of the 
Russian language weekly paper Den Za Dnjem, agreed, noting 
that unlike the situation in Latvia, which has more 
sensitive issues that unite Russians as a group, Russians 
in Estonia have less of a need to pull together.  As a 
result, more and more of Estonia's politically active 
Russians cast their ballots based on more diverse, 
individual concerns.  Also, in contrast to Latvia, Russian 
speaking (non-citizen) residents in Estonia can vote in 
local elections.  This limited enfranchisement may also 
have helped to vest Russian speakers more broadly in the 
Estonian political system. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Velman asserted that, despite Center's efforts, 
the party is destined to lose some of its ethnic Russian 
base over time, due to this diversification of voter 
priorities.  For example, the Center Party's focus on the 
working class has already resulted in the loss of 
prosperous Russians to the Reform Party.  Both Velman and 
Garanza predict that this diversification trend will 
continue among Russian speakers who naturalize (and thus 
gain the right to vote in national elections).  They 
contend that these new citizens are likely to reject 
ethnically-based parties and platforms and turn instead 
towards mainstream Estonian issues, because as they 
integrate into Estonian society their priorities 
increasingly reflect those of all Estonians.  (Note: 
Parliamentary election results anecdotally support this 
theory.  Despite the fact that there were tens of thousands 
of newly naturalized Russian speakers eligible to vote this 
year, Center lost its position as the largest party in 
Parliament.  End note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Hot-button ethnic topics including school reform 
and citizenship were largely non-issues in the recent 
elections.   The Bronze Soldier issue is one of the only 
issues that continues to unite Russians on a purely ethnic 
basis and to impact the political process.  According to 
Velman, the Center Party's opposition to legislation 
designed to pave the way to remove the Bronze Soldier from 
downtown Tallinn (Refs A and B), probably helped increase 
Center's support among Russian voters.  Conversely, the 
Reform Party may have lost some ethnic Russian support when 
it led efforts to pass legislation to relocate the 
monument.  The Center Party actively campaigned on the idea 
that Russian members of Reform did not care about the 
interests of ethnic Russians.  Two former (ethnic Russian) 
Reform Party MPs in Tallinn who abstained from voting on 
Bronze Soldier legislation, lost their seats in Parliament. 
One of these, Sergei Ivanov who received 1,138 votes in 
2003, managed only 257 votes this time.  (Note:  Ivanov was 
also much lower on Reform's party list this year than in 
¶2003.  End Note.) 
 
GOLDSTEIN