VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #0143/01 0641554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051554Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9595
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS TALLINN 000143 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR STATE EUR/NB 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S ELECTION RESULTS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The center-right Reform Party won the 
most seats in Estonia's March 4 parliamentary election, 
earning Andrus Ansip, Reform Chairman and Prime 
Minister, the opportunity to form the next government. 
PM Ansip essentially has two options for coalition 
building:  forming a center-right coalition with Pro 
Patria-Res Publica Union (IRL) and at least one other 
party or, negotiating a new, two-party coalition 
agreement with current partner, Edgar Savisaar's 
populist Center Party.  This election was the world's 
first national election which allowed voters to cast 
their ballots via the internet.  Voter turnout (61.9%) 
was higher than expected.  End Summary. 
 
The Results: Reform Comes out on Top 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Six parties won seats in the new Parliament, 
including the recently established Estonian Greens.  The 
percentage of total votes received and the distribution 
of seats in the 101-seat parliament is outlined below. 
Five parties (including all of the ethnic Russian 
parties) that participated in the election did not make 
the 5% threshold for seats in parliament. 
 
   PARTY PERCENT SEATS CHANGE IN SEATS (2003 
                                ELECTION) 
 
- Reform   27.8%  31 +12 
- Center   26.1%  29 +1 
- Pro Patria/   17.9%  19 -16 
  Res Publica 
  Union (IRL) 
- Social   10.6%  10 +4 
  Democrats 
  (SDE) 
- Estonian   7.1%   6 +7 
  Greens 
- People's   7.1%   6 -7 
  Union 
  ---------------------------------------- 
- Estonian   1.7%   0 0 
  Christian 
  Democrats 
- Constitution    0.2%   0 0 
  Party 
- Independence    0.2%   0 0 
  Party 
- Russian Party   0.2%   0 0 
  In Estonia 
- Left Party   0.1%   0 0 
- Independent   0.1%   0 0 
  Candidates 
 
(Note:  The last column compares the parties new seat 
totals with the official number of seats they held after 
the 2003 Parliamentary election.  However, in some 
cases, the number of seats actually controlled by the 
parties changed during the course of the last 
parliament's term because some MPs changed parties.  End 
note.) 
 
¶3. (U) All parties currently represented in parliament 
succeeded in returning.  No independent candidates were 
elected.  Prime Minister and Reform Party Chairman, 
Andrus Ansip, received the largest number of votes in 
Estonian history (22,556 votes).  Center Party Chairman 
and Minister of Economy, Edgar Savisaar, came second 
(18,013 votes) followed by Tartu Mayor and Reform member 
Laine Janes with 9,311 votes, IRL Prime Minister 
candidate Mart Laar with 9,252 votes and Foreign 
Minister and Reform member Urmas Paet with 8,684 votes. 
 
¶4. (U) Overall, voter turnout was higher than expected. 
61.9% (546,139) of all eligible voters went to the polls 
(compared with 58% in the 2003 election).  Voter turn- 
out was highest in Tallinn's third district (73%), while 
the lowest share of eligible voters cast ballots in the 
(predominantly Russian-speaking) north-eastern county of 
Ida-Virumaa (53%). 
 
Now Comes the Hard Part: Forming a New Government 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5. (U) The process for forming a new government is 
complicated and will likely take several weeks.  The new 
parliament's mandate formally begins the day after the 
National Electoral Committee officially certifies.  The 
President will appoint a candidate for Prime Minister to 
form the new government.  Before the election, President 
Toomas Hendrik Ilves pledged to give the first 
opportunity to form a government to the Prime 
Ministerial candidate of the party which won the most 
seats -- Andrus Ansip.  After he is officially nominated, 
PM Ansip will have two weeks to form a government 
coalition.  PM Ansip will become the first sitting PM to 
be re-elected in Estonia's history since re- 
independence. 
 
¶6. (U) Since no single party won a majority of 51 seats, 
Ansip will have to negotiate a coalition agreement with 
at least one other party.  He essentially has two 
options for doing this: 
 
-- Negotiate a center-right oriented coalition with 
former PM Mart Laar's ideologically like-minded IRL. 
Together, a Reform-IRL coalition only controls 50 seats. 
As a result, such a coalition would also need the 
participation of at least one other party: the SDE, the 
Greens or (less likely) the People's Union.  Each of 
these parties, though, would present a set of challenges 
for reaching a coalition agreement (e.g., the SDE 
disagrees with Reform on taxes, while the Greens oppose 
Reform's support for nuclear energy).  Additionally, 
Reform and IRL have had a fractious history, most 
noticeably during the last center-right coalition 
government (2003-2005) which collapsed due to internal 
differences. 
 
-- Renegotiate a coalition agreement with current 
partner, the populist Center Party, led by controversial 
Minister of Economy Edgar Savisaar.  No other party 
would be necessary in such a coalition, as together the 
two parties control 60 seats.  In the current coalition, 
Reform has shown it can work with Center, despite 
differences over key issues including tax policy, Iraq, 
and issues related to Estonia's Russian-speaking 
minority. 
 
E-Voting: First in the World 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Estonia's parliamentary election was the world's 
first national election to allow voters to use the 
internet to cast their ballot.  (Note - Estonia actually 
first allowed e-voting in the 2005 local election.  End 
Note.)  3.4% of voters (30,275) voted online -- three 
times the number who voted this way in 2005.  Over a 
third of online votes went to Reform (34.5%).  Center 
and People's Union received just 12.7% of online votes. 
Estonia's national identity card doubles as a smart card 
with an integrated electronic chip that allows for 
secure remote authentication and legally binding digital 
signatures.  Voters could vote online from February 26 
to 28 and change their electronic vote an unlimited 
number of times prior to Election Day. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment.  We expect coalition negotiations to 
take several weeks.  Reform's electoral success and 
Ansip's personal historical vote total put him in a 
position of strength to negotiate a coalition agreement. 
In his interviews following announcement of the 
preliminary election results, Ansip was quick to say it 
is too early to talk about the new coalition's make-up 
and that "nothing can be ruled out."  However, hinting 
at his negotiating strategy, Ansip also pointed out that 
Reform has more in common with IRL than with current 
coalition partners, Center and People's Union.  Post 
will closely monitor and report on progress on coalition 
negotiations in the coming weeks. 
 
JOHNSON