VZCZCXYZ0025
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0206 0751206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161206Z MAR 07
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6582
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7699
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7899
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2743

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000206 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA: CHAVEZ AND 
GUYANA; GWOT: AL-QAIDA'S INFLUENCE IN ALGERIA;  SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "The Guyana Factor" 
 
Political columnist Eliane Cantanhede opined in liberal, largest 
national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (3/16): "President Bush 
made rapprochement gestures towards US friends in Latin America 
while Chvez poured millions of dollars into Argentina, Paraguay, 
Bolivia and will certainly do the same in Ecuador. This attitude 
creates, or at least projects, a two-bloc split in the continent: 
one pro US (regardless of who the president is) and another pro 
Chvez (more than pro Venezuela). And here we have a delicate 
factor: Guyana. According to an evaluation by Brazilian intelligence 
services, Chvez is direct in his aggressive rhetoric against Bush 
because he needs a 'foreign enemy' to mobilize domestic patriotism. 
But if he tried to pass from words to action, such an attitude would 
not be against Washington or the neighboring Colombia. Chvez is 
openly arming Venezuela, buying weapons from Russia, its major 
supplier, but he does not have and will not have ammunition (in the 
literal sense) to face the military power of the world's largest 
power if he decides to attack Washington or Colombia. If he wants to 
demonstrate power, he may do so indirectly, and Guyana would be a 
perfect target. The pretext: Venezuela has for a long time claimed 
possession of 60% of Guyana's territory. The real motive: Guyana 
receives significant assistance from the US (and also from Canada 
and the UK), and is generous in exchange by offering space and 
conditions for US military training and operations near the border 
with Brazil and Venezuela. Brazil is not pleased and for years has 
just observed. Chvez goes farther than this. He fears that a US 
military base may be installed in his backyard. Whether an 
exaggeration or not of Brazilian strategists, the fact is that 
Chvez has shown that he is not joking. An eventual development 
would be that Brazil would certainly be involved, either by air or 
by land, not only through diplomacy." 
 
¶2. "Terror Network Extents Tentacles In Algeria" 
 
Center-right national circuQtion daily O Estado de S. Paulo's Paris 
correspondent Giles Lapouge maintained (3/16): "Washington and 
London have officially warned that a terrorist attempt may be 
carried out by Islamic radicals in Algeria to hit foreign personal 
working in the oil and gas industry. The tactic of the terrorists in 
the region has evolved.... The attacks today are aimed at the cities 
and especially foreign employees, and have a clear goal: to ruin the 
local industry and destroy the economic infrastructure in the 
Maghreb region.... Al-Qaida has slowly taken control of all 
terrorist organizations operating in different Arab zones.... 
Al-Qaida does not restrict its ambitions only to the Maghreb region 
- which involves Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco and Libya. Its network is 
also installed in the Middle East nations.... With al-Qaida's 
sponsorship, commandos have been infiltrated into Lebanon, coming 
from the armed resistance in Iraq, a nation that has become an 
important supplier of suicide terrorists to the entire region." 
McMullen