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OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0337/01 0610503
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 020503Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8091
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000337 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: SAM RAINSY ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN CAMBODIA 
 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  In recent meetings with Embassy 
officials and in public statements, opposition leader Sam 
Rainsy and SRP officials have raised concerns regarding the 
technical flaws surrounding the upcoming commune council 
elections, which they claim could impact the results. 
Rainsy's party has obtained copies of the updated 2006 voters 
lists for each of the 24 provinces, and SRP activists have 
been comparing the current list with the prior 2005 list to 
ensure that requested changes by voters have been made by the 
National Election Commission (NEC).  SRP alleges that they 
are consistently finding errors of various types; it is 
unclear if the complaints -- if unaddressed -- will make a 
difference in the outcome of some commune elections or if 
they will be insignificant.  The NEC has addressed the 
complaints in a public statement, noting that the problems 
will not significantly impede voters' ability to participate. 
 The National Democratic Institute believes the electoral 
system has adequate existing safeguards to prevent any 
widespread voter disenfranchisement, albeit at small numbers 
at each polling station.  UNDP has welcomed SRP's efforts to 
improve the lists and reduce the number of voters who may 
encounter problems on April 1.  End Summary. 
 
Sam Rainsy:  "Organized Fraud" 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  In discussions with donors and the media, 
opposition party leader Sam Rainsy has warned that the 
elections on April 1 may amount to an organized campaign of 
electoral fraud designed to maintain the ruling party in 
power.  In a February   meeting with the Ambassador, Rainsy 
updated us on the results of his recent soundings among SRP 
officials in each of the country's 24 provinces regarding 
their impressions of how the April 1 commune council election 
process is shaping up.  Rainsy claimed that his party 
purchased a copy of the CD-ROM from the NEC that has the 
latest voter registration list that has been updated to 
reflect new voter registrations, changes to voter 
registration information (e.g., changes in name misspellings, 
incorrect dates of birth, etc.), duplicate names, removal of 
voters who have died or are no longer are present in a given 
commune, and the names of ineligible voters from previous 
lists that the NEC reportedly agreed should be removed. 
Rainsy said that his officials are consistently reporting 
problems and inaccuracies surrounding the most recent voter 
list -- so much so, says Rainsy, that the SRP leader has 
characterized the problem as "organized fraud" in a press 
conference on February 15 and in SRP media releases. 
 
¶3.  (C)  The question remains whether these individual 
irregularities and errors will lead to disenfranchisement of 
large numbers of voters on election day and if that in turn 
will alter the outcome of the elections.  Rainsy said that a 
couple dozen or so voters turned away at a single polling 
station might not seem like many, but if that pattern is 
replicated across an entire commune, it could alter the 
outcome of a close contest and possibly result in the shift 
of a councilor position or two, depending on the size of the 
commune council.  In a February 23 meeting at SRP 
headquarters chaired by party Secretary General Mu Sochua, 
the SRP official provided examples of voter registration 
discrepancies from three communes, where local SRP activists 
had diligently compared current voter lists with the previous 
lists and found problems with all three lists on the 
magnitude of 5-10 percent of the voters. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The NEC responded to the SRP allegations through a 
February 26 press statement, in which the NEC said that the 
cases identified by the SRP would not damage the process. 
UNDP and NDI, however, have tried to reassure the SRP that 
many of the problems identified will not result in voters 
being turned away at the polls.  There are adequate 
safeguards to prevent widespread manipulation of the results 
and the NEC's own directives have already addressed some SRP 
concerns.  For those voters whose names are misspelled, for 
example, the NEC has instructed poll officials that if the 
pronunciation of the name is the same, then the person may 
vote.  Use of indelible ink should prevent people from using 
the multiple names of the same voter to vote more than once. 
The numbers of party poll monitors and NGO community 
observers will also help in identifying any patterns of voter 
disenfranchisement across communes, say NDI officials.  UNDP 
and NDI have both held separate meetings with the SRP in 
light of the SRP's allegations, and note that there is 
improved understanding on the part of the opposition on these 
issues.  A UNDP official welcomed SRP involvment in 
scrutinizing the voter lists, saying that it was helpful for 
the SRP and other political parties to carefully cull the 
voter lists and report discrepancies to the NEC so that they 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000337  002 OF 002 
 
 
can be corrected.  The fewer problems encountered on election 
day, the better for Cambodia, noted the same official. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Rainsy has been holding meetings with candidates 
and helping them to prepare for debates with representatives 
of other parties.  He has underscored that candidates need to 
work their communes and engage the electorate in order to 
win.  The ruling party, he has noted, is relying on the 
standard methods employed in previous elections: 
discrimination of SRP voters to discourage people from 
joining the opposition party, intimidation/threats, and 
finally vote buying.  He urged candidates to ensure that SRP 
party poll monitors adhere to the rules and remain loyal to 
the party, and that SRP candidates -- no matter where they 
are ranked on the list -- work together to ensure a 
victorious outcome.  (Note:  The commune council makeup will 
be determined on a proportional system.  Thus, the candidate 
whose name is first on the list stands the best chance of 
being elected, depending on the respective party's overall 
total.  End Note.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  Diplomatic missions are coordinating with the UNDP 
on election observation, which will be crucial to assessing 
the outcome of the elections on April 1.  At this stage, NGOs 
and UNDP believe that the election day process will be 
smooth, with few glitches.  We note little in the way of 
pre-election violence and up-tick in crime that characterized 
elections in 2002 and 2003.  We also anticipate few surprises 
on April 1 and concur with NDI that there are adequate 
safeguards to ensure the technical success of the elections. 
In addition, most observers agree that the ruling party's 
dominance of electronic media, their extensive grassroots 
network of CPP officials, and their use of state coffers to 
entice popular candidates and reward voters give the CPP a 
distinct advantage going into the elections.  These factors, 
more than any minor tinkering with voter registration lists, 
are likely determining the outcome of the elections even 
before the voters go to the polls on April 1.  End Comment. 
CAMPBELL