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Viewing cable 07PARIS1155, ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PARIS1155 2007-03-23 16:42 2011-08-24 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Paris
VZCZCXYZ0010
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHFR #1155/01 0821642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD97913B MSI7492-695)
O 231642Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5916
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS PARIS 001155 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (CLASS. PARA. 8 CHANGED) 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, 
AND EB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT:  LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE 
MONTH FROM FIRST-ROUND ELECTION DAY 
 
Summary 
-------- 
1.  (U) With one month to go before the April 22 first round 
of France's presidential election, the campaigns of all 
twelve candidates are in high gear.  Nicolas Sarkozy, who 
leaves his post as Interior Minister on March 26 to dedicate 
himself full-time to the presidential race, continues to lead 
in all polls at around 30 percent, and may have slightly 
increased his advantage in first-round voter intentions. 
Socialist Segolene Royal seems to have reversed her falling 
numbers and stabilized at just below 25 percent, while the 
recent surge in the poll numbers of "third man" challenger 
Francois Bayrou seems to have leveled out at around 20 
percent.  Nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen continues 
to trail at under 15 percent, and has suggested he "could" 
call on his supporters to vote for Sarkozy in the election's 
second round May 6.  The three leading candidates were 
actively maneuvering to increase their potential voting 
shares:  Sarkozy admitted that his controversial proposal for 
Ministry of Immigration and National Identity is intended in 
part to rally a significant portion of Le Pen voters; to 
undercut Bayrou, Royal called for a a "Sixth Republic" and 
even a "constituent assembly"; and centrist Francois Bayrou 
-- at a venue with 6400 seats that represented a quantum jump 
in scale for a Bayrou-featured political event -- sounded 
like a leftist when lambasting Sarkozy for being a "friend of 
billionaires," and a rightist when lambasting Royal for 
aiming to "impose the Finnish social model on France."  End 
Summary. 
 
Twelve Candidates on the First-Round Ballot 
------------------------------------------- 
2.  (U) On March 19, France's Constitutional Council 
announced that twelve candidates had qualified for the 2007 
presidential race.  There was never any doubt that the three 
mainstream candidates -- Interior Minister and President of 
the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party Nicolas Sarkozy, 
Poitou-Charentes region president and Socialist Party (PS) 
nominee Segolene Royal, and president of the centrist Union 
for French Democracy (UDF) party Francois Bayrou -- would 
make the cut.  The remaining nine contenders, including 2002 
second-place finisher Jean-Marie Le Pen, struggled to obtain 
the 500 signatures from local elected officials necessary to 
qualify.  Most press commentary centered on whether the five 
candidates from far-left micro-parties could "take" enough 
votes from Royal to condemn her to a third place finish 
behind Bayrou, and elimination from the race.  (Note: In the 
first round of the 2002 presidential contest, the eight 
minor, leftist candidates -- of a record-breaking total of 
sixteen candidates -- took nearly 30 percent of the 
first-round vote, causing the Socialist nominee, Lionel 
Jospin, to finish third behind right-wing extremist 
Jean-Marie Le Pen.  In this year's elections, the Socialists 
have done their utmost to limit the number of far-left 
candidates and urged left-leaning voters "to make their votes 
count" by supporting Royal directly in the first round.  End 
note.) 
 
3. (U) In 2007's first round, there are "only" five, far 
left/green minor candidates.  Among them are six-time 
presidential contender Arlette Laguiller of the Worker,s 
Struggle (LO) party; postman and Communist Revolutionary 
League (LCR) leader Olivier Besancenot; the Communist Party's 
(PC) Marie-George Buffet; and small town mayor Gerard 
Schivardi of the Worker,s Party (PT).  Anti-globalization 
activist Jose Bove also managed to make the cut.  Rounding 
out the field on the left is former Environment Minster 
Dominique Voynet of the Green Party (Les Verts).  The right 
of the political spectrum will be represented (for the fourth 
time) by nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of 
the National Front (FN) and anti-EU nationalist Philippe de 
Villiers of the Movement for France (MPF) party, as well as 
Frederic Nihous of the minuscule Hunting, Fishing, Nature and 
Traditions (CPNT) party. 
 
Little Change in Relative Standing of Leaders 
--------------------------------------------- 
In Latest Polls 
--------------- 
4.  (U) Polls released during the week of March 19 - 23 show 
that Sarkozy's lead in first-round voter intentions is 
holding at around 30 percent (and possibly increasing 
slightly as the percentage of decided voters also increases 
slightly).  Royal seems to have stopped the downward slide in 
 
her poll numbers, and is holding steady at about 25 percent 
of first-round voter intentions in all polls.  Bayrou, 
depending on the poll, comes in with between 21 and 17 
percent of first-round voter intentions, clearly indicating 
that the surge in his poll numbers over past weeks has, for 
the moment, stalled.  Le Pen hangs in there, unchanged, at 
just under 15 percent. 
 
Sarkozy: Turns to the Right to Secure his Base 
--------------------------------------------- - 
5.  (U) The repercussions of uncontrolled immigration are a 
key issue for "popular France" -- the portion of the society 
that is less well-off and less well-educated, and feels most 
threatened by job competition from immigrants and by the 
culture clash that accompanies the sociological 
transformation of neighborhoods.  The bulk of Le Pen's 
constituency falls into this "popular" category, and Sarkozy 
has long counted on winning the support of a significant 
portion of them.  In proposing a Ministry of Immigration and 
National Identity, Sarkozy was responding to a public demand 
(that goes well beyond Le Pen voters) that the government get 
immigration under control.  Sarkozy was also burnishing his 
credentials among the Le Pen supporters for whom immigration 
is the key issue.  In a TV appearance March 19, Sarkozy 
freely acknowledged that his proposal to establish a new 
immigration ministry represented an attempt to win far-right 
votes.  Sarkozy said that it was his intention to "bring back 
into the camp of the republic those voters who have gone over 
to the National Front." 
 
6.  (U) At a large rally of youthful supporters in Paris 
March 19, Sarkozy firmly defended the controversial "national 
identity" dimension of his new immigration ministry proposal. 
 Sarkozy delivered another of his signature, energetic and 
thought-through, political speeches; glossing over the 
traditional focus of French national identity on shared 
language and culture, he emphasized shared conviction about 
the political principles of the French Republic.  Drawing 
inspiration from an American model, Sarkozy evoked Martin 
Luther King, saying, "I too have a dream that one day all the 
children whose families have been French for generations, and 
all the children of immigrants can sit together at the table 
of French fraternity." 
 
Royal: Many Jarred by "Constituent Assembly" Suggestion 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
7.  (U) Also on March 19, before a gathering of Socialist 
Party (PS) elected officials, Royal highlighted a series of 
institutional reforms that, she suggested, would add up to a 
"Sixth Republic."  Among the key features of her reform 
package for France's political institutions are strengthening 
the powers of the legislature to better balance those of the 
executive, limiting the French practice of allowing 
politicians to hold several elective offices simultaneously, 
and introducing a measure of proportionality in the voting 
system used to select members of parliament.  Royal brought 
these reform proposals to the fore to counter the rising 
popularity of centrist Francois Bayrou, who has also proposed 
amending France's constitutional framework along similar 
lines.  Perhaps trying to outdo Bayrou, Royal went so far as 
to say that she was prepared to convene a "constituent 
assembly8 to pass the reforms if necessary.  Even many 
supporters found her proposal of a constitutional convention 
a bit extreme, and critics jumped on the suggestion to raise 
questions about her "political judgment." 
 
8.  (U) Spokespersons immediately tried to walk back Royal's 
"constituent assembly" suggestion, not least out of worry 
that no consensus exists among the French public (or in the 
Socialist Party) for undertaking far-reaching changes to the 
constitution of the Fifth Republic, but also because no one 
believes that France is facing the kind of existential crisis 
for which a constituent assembly would be the appropriate 
remedy.  (Note:  There are two ways to amend the 
constitution.  Changes approved by the National Assembly and 
Senate can  then be adopted by both houses meeting "in 
congress," or they can be adopted by national referendum, 
once approved by both houses.  If elected, Royal would face 
the opposition of a Senate that will continue to be dominated 
by a center-right majority, and the uncertainty of how voters 
might react to a referendum.  There are only four instances 
of constituent assemblies -- the equivalent of a 
constitutional convention -- in modern French history (1789, 
1848, 1875, and 1945), each time when France faced 
existential crises.  End note.) 
 
Bayrou: Still Succeeding (Though Poll Numbers Stall) 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
9.  (U) Francois Bayrou received a warm welcome during a tour 
of a poor, largely immigrant suburban neighborhood near Paris 
on March 20.  "I am not naturally a candidate of the 
suburbs," Bayrou admitted during his walk down a local market 
street in the suburb of Mantes La Jolie. "My constituency is 
rural -- but I am here," he added.  Bayrou's campaign stroll 
generated reams of favorable press coverage the following 
day, with several commentators noting that rival Nicolas 
Sarkozy had yet to set foot in an immigrant suburb for fear 
of sparking, possibly violent, demonstrations against him. 
(Note:  Sarkozy's campaign put out a statement that he has 
visited poor suburbs at least 500 times as Interior Minister. 
 End note.)  On March 21 Bayrou went on to hold the largest 
rally of his campaign so far.  Speaking to an overflow -- and 
boisterous --  crowd at a venue in Paris better known for 
rock concerts than centrist party political rallies, Bayrou 
displayed his peculiar brand of fence-straddling as he 
successfully lambasted both Sarkozy and Royal.  Sounding very 
much like a leftist, Bayou blasted Sarkozy as "a friend of 
billionaires" who is intent on "imposing the American model" 
on France.  Sounding very much like a rightist, Bayrou 
derided Royal as a lightweight who would diminish France by 
"imposing the Finnish model."  Bayrou's multiple references 
to his humble, rural roots (he grew up on his father's horse 
farm in southwestern France) were heartily applauded by his 
enthusiastic, Parisian supporters. 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
STAPLETON