VZCZCXRO7970
PP RUEHRN
DE RUEHNR #1077/01 0660831
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070831Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8047
INFO RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1794
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9164
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 0053
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5155
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4612
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1891
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 4731
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1010
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0124
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 4118
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA/AA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, TMCRAE 
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON 
ADDIS FOR MJENNINGS, SPOLAND 
BUJUMBURA FOR PMOLLER, RLUNEBURG 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR PWHITE, MLATOUR 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN 
KAMPALA FOR DMUTAZINDWA, RSEMPA, WWELZ 
KHARTOUM FOR ARAHMAN, PFESENDEN 
KIGALI FOR RWASHBURN 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID XA ZI KPRP
SUBJECT:  FEWSNET REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY PRESENTATION 
FOR USAID OFFICES IN KENYA 
 
¶1.  USAID/East Africa Regional Economic Growth and 
Integration (REGI) and Regional Food for Peace (FFP) 
Offices have cultivated a productive relationship with 
the regional FEWSNET Office.  In that light, FEWSNET has 
been holding periodic briefings for USAID's offices 
(USAID/EA, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, OFDA) in Kenya.  These 
briefings are designed to highlight various climatic 
issues and their impact on food security in East Africa, 
Great Lakes, and Horn of Africa regions.  On February 1, 
2007 FEWSNET held a joint presentation with IGAD Climate 
Predications and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and FAO 
entitled, "Food Security and Humanitarian Situation 
Briefing" Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region. The 
information session provided comprehensive highlights of 
key issues for the various regions including updates on 
the recent flooding in Somalia, Kenya and Burundi; the 
pastoralist livelihood crisis; Rift Valley Fever.  In 
addition, the discussions covered the regional markets 
outlook, climate change, and transitory versus 
structural causes of food insecurity.  "Surge" funding 
has enabled FEWSNET to undertake several analyses on the 
broader picture of emerging trends in food security, 
including its study of regional markets.  Regrettably, 
USAID/EA does not have funds in the FY 2008 budget for 
regional FEWSNET or ICPAC. 
 
 
GREATER HORN OF AFRICA: RECENT SHOCKS -- RIFT VALLEY 
FEVER, CIVIL CONFLICTS, FLOODS AND EL-NINO UPDATE 
 
 
¶2.  Tropical cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean 
are occurring due to ocean warming resulting in heavy 
rains off the East African coast and neighboring areas. 
The main rain belt is currently over southern African 
states which has exhibited above-normal rainfall 
performance between October 2006 and January 2007. 
Moderate El-Nino conditions occurred which brought 
heavier than normal rainfall in the Horn of Africa 
countries although the rains were less in intensity 
compared to those seen during the 1997/98 El-Nino 
episode.  These same areas were dealing with below- 
average rainfall and in some areas a serious drought, 
during the period of October 2005 - March 2006 that 
affected about 10 million pastoralists.  FEWSNET 
reported that the seasonal rains of October - December 
2006 were above-normal and largely beneficial for the 
worst drought-affected areas.  However the heavy rains 
resulted in floods in certain zones causing serious 
damage in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi, 
Rwanda and Tanzania that affected an estimated 2 million 
people. 
 
¶3.  Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne virus 
that attacks domestic livestock and can be passed on to 
humans.  There have been confirmed cases in Kenya where 
over 100 human deaths have been reported.  Somalia and 
Tanzania have suspected cases while no cases have been 
identified in Ethiopia so far.  Vaccine availability 
continues to remain a challenge for prevention purposes. 
The fallout of quarantining and limiting the risks of 
this disease is negatively impacting regional livestock 
markets due to the restrictions on trade and slaughter 
 
NAIROBI 00001077  002 OF 004 
 
 
of animals since December 2006.  Livestock abortions are 
frustrating the re-building of herds in drought-affected 
areas.  As emergency levels escalate for RVF, the 
tightening of international ban on livestock exports is 
likely, causing a more severe market disruption. 
 
¶4.  Most pastoral areas are starting to recover from the 
2005/2006 drought but more good seasons are needed.  The 
improving rangelands bring about improvements in 
livestock production, however these new shocks threaten 
the recovery process.  Eastern Kenya (Mandera, Wajir, 
Garissa, Ijara, Tana River districts), south and central 
Somalia (Gedo, Juba Valley, and parts of Bay, Bakol and 
Hiran regions) and southeastern region of Ethiopia 
(parts of Somali, Oromiya, and Afar regions) share 
contiguous borders and have significant pockets of 
extreme food insecurity. 
 
 
COUNTRY SUMMARIES: ETHIOPIA, SOMALIA, KENYA, DJIBOUTI, 
UGANDA, SUDAN, RWANDA, TANZANIA, BURUNDI 
 
 
¶5.  The FEWSNET presentation provided a round up of 
highlights of the food security situation in individual 
countries in the region.  Alert levels Emergency, 
Warning, Watch, and No Alert, follow FEWSNET's food 
security status classifications, indicating severity of 
food insecurity.  The USAID/FFP emergency and 
development program contributions for FY 06 are noted as 
a contextual reference.  The data are from the Food for 
Peace Information System (FFPIS), October 17, 2006. 
 
ETHIOPIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 2.3 million people 
require emergency food assistance):  Despite the overall 
improvement in food security situation, there are about 
10 million people requiring humanitarian assistance, 
about 2.3 million of whom need emergency food 
assistance.  The numbers remains high due to food 
insecure pastoral areas; slow recovery from floods and 
hailstorms; record high cereal prices; terms of trade 
that favor grain suppliers over pastoralists; tribal and 
resourced based conflicts in Oromiya and Somali regions 
and restricted cross border trade.  (USAID/FFP 
contribution in FY 06 was $146,382,000.  However, there 
was carry-over from the Bill Emerson Humanitarian 
Trust). 
 
SOMALIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 1 million people 
require humanitarian assistance):  Since December 2006, 
the conflict continues to escalate causing internal 
displacement of 400,000 people and resulting in border 
closures with Somalia.  In addition, civil insecurity 
has resulted in death, loss and destruction of 
livelihood assets that have implications for the 
severity, magnitude, scale and duration of food 
insecurity and for the degree of resilience and 
abilities to manage future shocks.  There is an unknown 
camel disease that causes sudden collapse and death of 
camels and mortality in 10 to 20 percent of the herd. 
Reported cases have been scattered, not affecting all 
pastoral households.  (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 
was $82,178,000.) 
 
NAIROBI 00001077  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
KENYA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as over 2.0 million people 
require emergency assistance, although this figure is 
expected to significantly come down after the February 
2007 food security assessment):  Food insecurity remains 
highly precarious for pastoralists in the east after the 
outbreak of the RVF.  Other pastoralist areas in the 
northwest have experienced marked improvements in food 
security.  However, several more good seasons are 
required for recovery to take hold.  Severely drought- 
affected farm households in the southeast and coast show 
improvements in food security.  National maize output 
for both seasons estimated to be 3 million MT, nearly 20 
percent higher than normal.  Outlook for eastern 
pastoralists depends on verifiable eradication of the 
RVF.  (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $94,794,000.) 
 
DJIBOUTI - WARNING STATUS:  Malnutrition rates are 
reported to be above international standards with Global 
Acute Malnutrition (weight/height) at 20.4 percent and 
Severe Acute Malnutrition at 7.1 percent.  However, the 
survey was done in late 2006 by government and partners 
at the height of last year's drought, and so may have 
come down.  Pastoralists in the northwest and Dikhil 
district face serious stress due to the prolonged dry 
period of October - February affecting 35,000 people. 
Urban consumer prices are beyond the affordability of 
poor households.  (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was 
$2,140,000.) 
 
UGANDA - WATCH STATUS: Northern districts remain food 
insecure.  Second crop planting season improved due to 
extended rains in bimodal areas.  Uncertainty over the 
peace process is slowing the pace of IDP returns.  Over 
500,000 people in the largely pastoral Karamoja Region 
face acute food shortages and civil insecurity related 
to government disarmament efforts, and the situation is 
deteriorating.  (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was 
$55,849,000.) 
 
SOUTHERN SUDAN - WATCH STATUS:  Expected increase in 
food supply resulting from improved harvests.  Fair 2006 
crop harvests and good off-farm food sources make 2007 a 
better year than the past five years.  Population census 
planned in November 2007 that will likely increase 
because of the returning population.  There were 300,000 
returnees in 2006 and another 350,000 expected in 2007. 
Since July 2006, insecurity related to the Uganda peace 
process is disrupting trade and movements and could 
potential affect the food security in Central Equatoria 
as armed conflicts have disrupted trade and movement 
since July 2006.  (USAID/FFP contribution to Sudan in FY 
06 was $402,947,000.) 
 
RWANDA - NO ALERT: Low to moderate food insecurity risk. 
Rains were late but December - January harvest season 
was good.  There is a national food deficit (153,000 
MTs) but imports are expected to fill the gap.  In the 
Congo-Nile Ridge and Southern Plateau, livelihoods, 
which are usually chronically food insecure due to land 
degradation/poor soils, high population density, 
moderate food insecurity exists, while in Bugesera 
uneven distribution of rains has caused crop production 
 
NAIROBI 00001077  004 OF 004 
 
 
shortfalls.  Most of the country continues to face 
higher than normal food prices. (USAID/FFP contribution 
in FY 06 was $20,773,000.) 
 
TANZANIA - NO ALERT:  Generally food secure. Good 
harvest expected for the February/March 2007 crop, which 
accounts for 30 percent of annual production.  There was 
localized flooding along river banks due to heavy rains 
in Mwanza, Shinyanga and Dodoma, but not resulting in a 
significant humanitarian situation.  There is an 
outbreak of Banana Wilt in Mara and Kagera regions along 
with some threats of RVF following the flooding. 
(USAID/FFP contribution in 
FY 06 was $14,055,000.) 
 
BURUNDI - (No FEWSNET Classification):  Delayed start of 
rainy season, uneven distribution of rains followed by 
heavy rains and flooding has caused severe disruption in 
crop production.  The anticipated below-normal 
production for agricultural season will cause seed 
deficit for the principal planting season.  Cassava 
production has been severely impacted by cassava mosaic 
disease since 2005.  Populations are practicing distress 
strategies such as asset sales and eating one meal/day. 
EA/USAID/REGI and FFP recommend expanding FEWSNET 
services into Burundi.  (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 
was $15,013,000.) 
 
¶6.  USAID/EA appreciates the insightful and 
comprehensive briefing that the FEWSNET Regional Office, 
with support from ICPAC and FAO offices, provided on 
food security issues in the Greater East Africa and Horn 
of Africa Regions.  FEWSNET is a valued partner of the 
USAID/EA/REGI and FFP offices, providing in-depth 
analytic work on food security and support to making 
better food aid decisions.  We also expect FEWSNET to 
continue to play a very constructive role in refocusing 
food security monitoring and assessment on new 
integrated sectoral analysis and common action, such as 
in the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system, 
which incorporates humanitarian and livelihoods 
classification towards early response in the Horn of 
Africa region. 
 
¶7.  Ironically, East Africa regional funding for FEWSNET 
in FY 2008 is zeroed out under the Operational Plan, 
although the opportunities for fostering regional value- 
added and coherence are greater than ever. 
 
RANNENBERGER