VZCZCXRO1207
RR RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0204/01 0681412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091412Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5747
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000204 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - MARCH 9, 2007 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
- GOB Security Council Denies Iran, Syria Arms Sales (para. 2) 
- GOB Calls ODIHR Monitoring Practices "Biased" (para. 3) 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
- GOB Questions Activists on Opposition Youth Leaders (para. 4) 
- Belarus to Curtail Execution of Capital Punishment (para. 5) 
 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
- GOB Refuses to Sign Draft Russian Trade Agreement  (para. 6) 
- Trade Deficit Skyrockets to USD 363 Million (para. 7) 
- Foreign Debt Edges up to USD 845 Million (para. 8) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMY 
---------------- 
 
- Higher Energy Prices to Cut Automobile Profits (para. 9) 
 
QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 10) 
 
----------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  GOB Security Council Denies Iran, Syria Arms Sales 
 
On March 6, Belarusian Security Council Spokesman Vladimir 
Nestsyarovich dismissed media speculation about planned sales of 
Russian military equipment to Syria and Iran via Belarus as "another 
attempt to discredit the country."  Rumors of Belarus' possible 
involvement in sales of Russian weapons to the Middle East emerged 
in connection with the recent mysterious death of Russian newspaper 
"Kommersant" journalist Ivan Safronov in Moscow March 2.  Despite 
official suspicions of suicide, his colleagues suspect that he was 
murdered for fear that he might disclose Russian plans to use 
Belarus to sell Su-30 fighters to Syria and S-300B surface-to-air 
missile systems to Iran. 
 
¶3.  GOB Calls ODIHR Monitoring Practices "Biased" 
 
On March 5, Permanent Belarusian Representative to the OSCE 
Alexander Sychyev vehemently criticized election monitoring 
exercised by OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human 
Rights (ODIHR).  He expressed concern over ODIHR's continued neglect 
of the principles of impartiality and objectivity during election 
monitoring.  According to Sychyev, the "biased" assessment of 
Serbian election results became "the last straw."  Sychyev sees the 
ODIHR leadership as flawed and claims that it strives to be 
autonomous and avoid accountability to OSCE member countries.  He 
also asserted that the ODIHR's reports tend to be politically 
oriented, and Belarus "has collided" with that approach in the past. 
 Sychyev concluded that the "absolute lack of transparency in the 
work of ODIHR" convinced Belarus OSCE delegation of the necessity of 
regulating ODIHR. 
 
------------- 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
¶4.  GOB Questions Activists on Opposition Youth Leaders 
 
On March 6, Belarus' Prosecutor General's Office questioned five 
opposition youth activists in connection with a criminal case 
against Oleg Korban and Dmitriy Fedaruk for leading the unregistered 
opposition youth group "Malady Front".  On February 4, authorities 
apprehended Korban and Fedaruk together with 25 other youths during 
a raid on a private apartment in Minsk. Police subsequently released 
all 27 activists.  On November 1, 2006, Malady Front leader Dmitriy 
Dashkevich was sentenced to 18 months in prison on the same charge. 
 
¶5.  Belarus to Further Curtail Capital Punishment 
 
At a press conference on March 6, Chairperson of the Upper Chamber 
of the Parliament Gennady Novitskiy discussed his recent meeting in 
Rome with Parliamentary Assembly Council of Europe (PACE) 
Vice-President Andrea Rigoni.  Novitskiy noted that they discussed 
abolishing capital punishment in Belarus, set forth by PACE as a 
prerequisite for reinstating Belarus' Special Guest status with the 
PACE.  The Belarusian parliamentarian reassured Rigoni of Belarus' 
intention to curtail the number of death penalties, citing a steady 
 
MINSK 00000204  002 OF 002 
 
 
decrease of executions: 47 cases in 1998, 13 in 1999, and four in 
2005 and 2006.  However, according to Novitskiy, Belarus can abolish 
capital punishment only through a referendum, and by law it is 
currently stipulated as an interim measure.  He also emphasized that 
Belarus, with its historic and cultural peculiarities, is still a 
democratically oriented country that shares common European values. 
 
---------------------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  GOB Refuses to Sign Draft Russian Trade Agreement 
 
On February 28, the Russian government approved the draft agreement 
with the GOB on trade and economic relations, and instructed 
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade to sign it. 
Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorskiy responded that the GOB 
would not sign the agreement, unless Russia eases restrictions on 
Belarusian sugar exports to Russia. 
 
¶7.  Trade Deficit Jumps to USD 363 Million 
 
On March 1, Belarus' Statistics Ministry announced that the 
country's foreign commodity trade deficit in January was USD 362.5 
million versus USD 36.3 million surplus a year ago.  The deficit is 
attributed to a 30 percent hike in imports and almost the same 
exports.  Imports from Russia remained unchanged, while a 92.8 
percent hike in imports from non-CIS countries was a record high. 
Exports to Russia were up 23.7 percent, while exports to non-CIS 
countries were down 15.8 percent.  These statistics largely reflect 
Belarus' virtual inability to export oil-based products this year. 
 
¶8.  Foreign Debt Edges up to USD 845 Million 
 
On March 1, the Finance Ministry reported that state foreign debt 
edged up 0.8 percent in January to USD 844.7 million.  The GOB's 
long-term and short-term debts accounted for 56.9 and 9.9 percent of 
total foreign debt, respectively.  Foreign loans to companies 
against the government's guarantees totaled 33.2 percent.   Belarus' 
largest creditors are Russia, Germany, the World Bank, and the 
United States. 
 
---------------- 
DOMESTIC ECONOMY 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  Higher Energy Prices to Cut Automobile Profits 
 
On March 2, Belarus' newly appointed deputy Industry minister 
Valentin Gurinovich predicted that Belarus' automotive industry 
would lose two to three percent of its profits due to higher energy 
prices.  Gurinovich nevertheless assured higher energy prices, which 
the country started paying as of January 1, would not disrupt the 
industry's plans for this year.  Later this year MAZ will start 
equipping its trucks with domestically made engines, which meet Euro 
3 emission standards.  MAZ also plans to increase it annual 
production by 2010 to 30,000 vehicles, which is 23,000 more than it 
produced in 2006. 
 
----------------- 
QUOTE OF THE WEEK 
----------------- 
 
¶10.  On March 5, Presidential Administration Deputy Head Nataliya 
Petkevich offered the following insight regarding Belarus' policy on 
the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from 
Enforced Disappearance: 
 
"This convention is not topical for Belarus, it has the same degree 
of importance for us as ozone layer protection or the protection of 
those starving.  We have no such problem." 
 
Stewart