VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0182/01 0611309
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021309Z MAR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5708
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1433
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS MINSK 000182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT SURVEYS HAVING EFFECT ON VOTERS 
 
REF: 06 MINSK 1117 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Independent pollsters Manaev and Vardomatskiy gave 
Ambassador the results of their latest polling conducted in January. 
 Both pollsters' results indicate that public support for a union 
with Russia dropped by 10-15 percent to 35 percent.  However, 
support for a closer relationship with the EU did not increase 
significantly, even though approximately 50 percent of people ages 
18-25 believe Belarus should be part of the EU.  Lukashenko's 
popularity rating (55 percent) and the evaluation of his job 
performance were not greatly affected by his handling of the oil and 
gas crisis.  Only 20 percent of respondents have even heard of the 
E.U.'s 12-step proposal sent to the GOB in November of 2006.  Sixty 
percent of those surveyed would like to have access to a new source 
of independent information.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Director of the independent polling service IISEPS Oleg 
Manaev on February 14 delivered to Ambassador the results of his 
latest survey, which interviewed 1474 people between January 20 and 
January 30.  Director of the NOVAK independent polling service 
Andrey Vardomatsky on February 21 also gave Ambassador the results 
of his latest survey, which interviewed 1,100 people between January 
28 and February 5.  Both polls have a margin of error of just over 
three percent. 
 
Popularity of Union with Russia Down, EU Steady 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Vardomatskiy noted that Belarusian support for any type of 
union with Russia decreased by 10-15 percent following the energy 
crisis.  While 70 percent of Belarusians believe their country's 
relationship with Russia has worsened, the same percentage say their 
attitude toward Russia remains "good" or "very good", and 38 percent 
still view Russia as an ally.  According to Vardomatskiy, 45 percent 
of respondents supported increased integration with both Russia and 
the EU, but 36.6 percent did not want closer relations with the EU 
and 41 percent did not want closer relations with Russia. 
 
"If today there were a referendum on choosing the future of 
development in Belarus, how would you vote?" 
 
                                  IISEPS         NOVAK 
                              Sept      Jan  Jan 
                          ----      ----      --- 
For a union with Russia       37.9(%)   27.3 
For integration into the E.U. 23.4  21.0  35.7 
For both                      23.2  16.4 
Against both                   6.5  25.2 
No answer                     ----      10.1 
Against the E.U.       30.5 
 
"If today there was a referendum on merging Belarus and Russia, how 
would you vote?" 
 
                                 IISEPS         NOVAK 
                              March    Jan       Jan 
                              -----    ---       --- 
Against unification          23.8(%)  39.3      40.1 
For unification               57.5     35.1      35.2 
Would not vote                 8.6     14.0      10.6 
Undecided/no answer                    11.6      12.8 
 
"If the consequences of increased prices on Russian energy become 
difficult for you personally, would you look more favorably on 
Belarus joining a union with Russia?" 
 
                     IISEPS 
No                   49.0(%) 
Yes                  35.1 
Undecided/no answer  15.9 
 
"Do you think the economic situation in Belarus would change if 
Belarus were to unite with Russia?" 
 
                           NOVAK 
Change for the better      31.3 
Change for the worse       36.1 
Will not change            17.9 
Undecided/No answer        14.7 
 
"How would you like to see the Russian-Belarusian union?" 
 
                           NOVAK 
Unification into a single state-equal basis 40.7(%) 
Belarus becoming a region within Russia   4.6 
No need for unification-just good neighbors 44.4 
Hard to say       10.7 
No answer         1.1 
 
"How is the process of establishing the Russian-Belarusian union 
state developing?" 
 
       NOVAK 
Successfully; Union will be established soon         6.0(%) 
Slowly and inefficiently                            35.6 
The process has reached a deadlock                  46.1 
Hard to say/No answer                               12.4 
 
"If you believe the process to establish a Russian-Belarusian state 
is progressing slowly, then whom do you blame for this?" 
 
                           NOVAK 
¶A. Lukashenko and GOB leaders                       12.7(%) 
¶V. Putin and Russian leaders                        29.4 
Belarusian opposition forces                         7.7 
Forces opposed to Putin in Russia                   10.3 
The U.S. and the EU                                  7.1 
No hampering-process is moving at a natural pace     7.6 
Union is a farfetched idea; neither state needs it  23.1 
Other                                                0.2 
Hard to say/No answer                               15.4 
 
Oil and Gas Conflict neither Helped nor Hurt Lukashenko 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Neither Lukashenko's support rating (55 percent) nor the 
level of trust that Belarusians place in him suffered as a result of 
his actions during the recent oil and gas conflict with Russia. 
Just over 66 percent of respondents believe he did the right thing 
and over 87 percent are sure he will remain in power despite any 
economic consequences that may result.  Approximately 42 percent of 
those polled believe Lukashenko's popularity will increase as a 
result of the conflict.  Nearly 90 percent of those surveyed see the 
price Russia charges Belarus for gas as unfair and 49 percent think 
Belarus should pay the same for gas as Russians do.  Seventy-one 
percent of Belarusians view the GOB's decision to impose transit 
duties on Russian oil as an appropriate response. 
 
"After the recent conflict between Belarus and Russia over the gas 
and oil, how do you evaluate the course that Lukashenko is 
following?" 
 
                          IISEPS 
Unchanged: was not right, still is not       28.0(%) 
Changed: was right but is now wrong           7.8 
Changed: was wrong, now is right              6.2 
Unchanged: was and remains right             42.4 
Undecided/no answer                          15.6 
 
"How do you evaluate the actions of A. Lukashenko during the 
Belarus/Russia oil and gas conflict?" 
 
                           IISEPS 
Strong politician, capable of achieving his goals  52.6(%) 
Weak politician, gave up too much                  25.7 
Undecided/no answer                                21.7 
 
"How do you relate to the decision of the Belarusian authorities to 
sell a 50 percent share of "Beltransgaz" to the Russian company 
"Gazprom"?" 
 
                            IISEPS 
Not satisfied                           36.9(%) 
Satisfied                               12.0 
Not satisfied, but GOB had no choice    28.8 
I do not care either way                12.8 
Undecided/no answer                      9.5 
 
"As a whole, how do you evaluate the political situation in 
Belarus?" 
 
                                   IISEPS         NOVAK 
Safe       17.0(%)   7.4 
Peaceful      54.0   67.8 
Strained/Tense     20.3   19.5 
Critical/explosively dangerous  3.8    0.9 
Undecided/no answer     4.9    4.3 
 
Society Looks Favorably on State Control of Market 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶5. (SBU) A large majority of Belarusians still expect the state to 
control the price of goods in their country, and 50 percent of 
respondents would rather work for state enterprises. 
 
"In your opinion, must the state adjust the price on goods and 
services?" 
 
              IISEPS 
Yes           73.4(%) 
No            19.5 
No answer      7.1 
 
"What is your preference for Belarus?" 
 
                                                  IISEPS 
Market economy without sizable state adjustments 37.0(%) 
Market economy with sizable state adjustments   29.6 
 
Planned economy                                   13.0 
Other                                              4.3 
No answer                                         16.1 
 
"In your opinion, what form of property is more effective?" 
 
              IISEPS 
Private       47.0(%) 
State         39.7 
Other          5.6 
No answer      7.7 
 
 
Economic Protests Doubtful; Participate Unlikely 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Eighty-seven percent of those who responded to 
Vardomatskiy's poll said it was unlikely that any sort of mass 
action could occur protesting worsening economic conditions near 
their home, but up to a quarter indicated that they would be 
interested in participating in demonstrations. 
 
"If in your city (region) an action took place protesting worsening 
economic conditions (price increases and falling standard of 
living), are you prepared to take part?" 
 
             IISEPS      NOVAK 
No           66.8(%)     84.9 
Yes          23.0         8.8 
Hard to say  10.2         5.5 
No answer    15.9         0.8 
 
"How would you assess the current economic situation in Belarus?" 
 
                    NOVAK 
Very Good    1.2(%) 
Good    16.2 
Fair    58.3 
Bad    17.5 
Very bad    2.6 
Undecided/No answer  1.3 
 
Local Election Results Inflated and Unfair 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) IISEP and NOVAK results indicate that authorities inflated 
the official number of voters in the local council elections of 
January 14 by 10-15 percent.  Eleven percent of those surveyed 
complained that they were compelled to vote early, and 4 percent 
stated they were pressured to vote for a certain candidate. 
Eighty-six percent of Belarusians feel that they have either 
"insignificant" or no influence in the political and economic life 
of the country. 
 
"In what areas of activity has President A. Lukashenko been 
completely successful, and in what areas has he not been?" 
 
                                             IISEPS 
       Successful/not/no answer 
Bringing order                         64.1(%)25.9   10.0 
Building an independent government     61.3   26.6   12.1 
Economic development                   57.6   30.7   11.7 
The fight against crime                56.7   31.1   12.2 
Not allowing oligarchs                 54.7   28.2   17.1 
Improving the standard of living       49.8   40.3    9.9 
The fight against corruption      48.7   37.7   13.6 
Cooperation with CIS countries     46.7   36.6   16.7 
Development of Belarusian lang/culture 43.9   39.4   16.7 
Strengthening morals and morality     43.7   35.8   20.5 
Protecting democratic freedoms         33.0   47.5   19.5 
Acceptable climate for business        30.4   49.8   19.8 
Cooperation with the West              23.5  60.5   16.0 
Creation of a union with Russia        20.7  66.0   13.3 
 
"For whom did you vote in the presidential election on March 19, 
2006?" 
 
                     IISEPS 
¶A. Lukashenko        50.7(%) 
¶A. Milinkevich       15.3 
¶A. Kozulin           4.0 
¶S. Gaydukevich       3.6 
Against everyone     6.6 
Declined to say      7.9 
Did not vote        11.2 
Undecided/No answer  0.7 
 
"If tomorrow there were a presidential election, who would you vote 
for?" 
                    IISEPS     NOVAK 
 
¶A. Lukashenko       50.9(%)    53.8 
¶A. Milinkevich      11.4        3.4 
¶A. Kozulin           4.2        2.1 
¶C. Gaydukavich       1.2        0.6 
Other                6.1 
Undecided/no answer 23.6 
 
"How did you vote on the 2004 referendum allowing A. Lukashenko to 
run for the office of president without term limits?" 
 
                                      IISEPS 
Voted in favor                        45.4(%) 
Voted against                         25.4 
Destroyed the ballot                   2.2 
Did not vote                          19.0 
Voted, but decline to say which way    5.7 
Declined to say/No answer              2.3 
 
"Did you vote in the elections for deputies of local Councils in 
January of 2007?" 
 
            IISEPS 
Yes         61.8(%) 
No          37.7 
No answer    0.5 
 
"When did you vote?" 
 
                    IISEPS 
Early (9-13 Jan.)   23.4(%) 
Sunday, Jan. 14     38.5 
Did not vote        37.8 
No answer            0.3 
 
"Did anyone compel you during the early elections to vote early or 
not?" 
 
            IISEPS 
No          87.1(%) 
Yes         11.5 
No answer    1.4 
 
"For Freedom" Movement; What's that? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) IISEPS discovered that 77 percent of respondents had never 
heard of the opposition movements "Days of Solidarity" and "For 
Freedom".  When those that were acquainted with the movements where 
asked, ten percent supported the movements and over eight percent 
were indifferent toward them.  The survey indicates that national 
symbols, like the flag, crest, and anthem, are not effective tools 
for gathering support for the opposition, as only 12 percent of 
respondents disapprove of the symbols in their current form. 
 
TV More Popular than Radio or the Internet 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) According to NOVAK, 88 percent of Belarusians relied on 
television as a source of information during the recent energy 
conflict with Russia, with 54 percent stating Belarusian TV 
broadcasts were the most objective source of information on the 
subject.  Twenty percent reported having access to satellite TV. 
According to IISEPS, 25 percent of respondents stated TV was their 
most important source of domestic and international news. Only 15 
percent of Belarusians use the internet daily or weekly, and 64 
percent do not use it at all. 
 
"Soon from the territory of Poland, with the support of the E.U., 
there will be broadcast, in Belarusian and Russian, a new 
independent television channel.  Would you like to watch what is 
shown on this channel?" 
 
                       IISEPS 
Yes                    63.9(%) 
No                     25.1 
Undecided/now answer   11.0 
 
"Not long ago from the states of the EU (in Russian and Belarusian) 
new radio stations began broadcasting into Belarus.  Do you listen 
to their programs?" 
 
                                  IISEPS 
                              Listen  Do not 
European Radio for Belarus 6.5(%)    92.6 
Radio "Ratsia" (Bialystok) 4.4       94.5 
"Polonia" (Warsaw)   4.3       94.7 
"Belarusian Hroniki" radio 
"Nemetskaya Volna" (Bonn) 3.5       95.5 
Radio "Baltinskaya" (Vilnius) 2.8       96.3 
 
 
"What television channels do you watch?" 
 
                          IISEPS 
 
Belarusian TV       90.5(%) 
Russian             87.4 
Local               47.1 
Cable               35.9 
"Euro news"         22.1 
Satellite           20.5 
Polish TV           13.2 
Weekly RTV           7.0 
 
"What newspapers do you read?" 
 
Sovyetskaya Belarusiya 4.6(%) 
Argumenty i Fakty      1.6 
Komsomolskaya Pravda     1.4 
Mestnaya Gazeta          0.8 
Narodnaya volya          0.7 
7 Nyea                   0.6 
Respublika               0.6 
Zvyazda                  0.3 
Svobodniye Novosti Plus  0.3 
 
"What radio station do you listen to?" 
 
Mestnoye radio           0.4(%) 
Byeloruskoye radio       0.3 
Radio Liberty            0.3 
Belaruski Khroniki       0.2 
Baltiskaya Khavalya  0.1 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The recent conflict over oil and gas severely undermined 
support for a union with Russia in Belarus.  State media brought 
this about through a carefully orchestrated propaganda campaign that 
skillfully avoided placing any blame for the conflict on Lukashenko. 
 It is premature to judge whether the decrease in popularity of a 
union with Russia will translate into a corresponding increase in 
the popularity of a union with the EU (most likely because most 
Belarusians lack access to an independent source of knowledge on the 
EU).  As long as Belarusian's sources of information remain 
dominated by state media outlets, public opinion will continue to 
closely track the course that the regime crafts for it. 
 
STEWART