VZCZCXRO4348
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #0783/01 0822045
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 232045Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9590
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1021
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN, INR/I 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU PREL
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY WILL TAKE &AKIDO8 APPROACH TO 
REIGNING IN PARTY DISSIDENTS (C-AL7-00063) 
 
REF: 2006 MANAGUA 2651 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Conservative Party president Azalia Aviles 
Salmeron and PC National Assembly lawmaker Alejandro Bolanos 
are determined to strengthen their party and maintain its 
alliance with Eduardo Montealegre's Nicaraguan Liberal 
Alliance.  While ultimately they would prefer to establish a 
Conservative Party caucus in the Assembly, they are unwilling 
to do so at this juncture because they do not wish to 
jeopardize the ALN-PC partnership.  Rather, the Conservatives 
intend to take an "Akido" approach to their dissidents, 
channeling their energies to work for the good of the party. 
While Aviles respects Montealegre, she also criticizes his 
inability to effectively assert his leadership of his party 
and the alliance, and believes he would greatly benefit from 
training to hone his "people skills."  End Summary. 
 
Conservative Dissidents Call for Party Unity 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) The week of March 12, Conservative Party (PC) 
dissidents led by former party president Noel Vidaurre 
publicly called for party unity and signed a letter sent to 
PC President Azalia Aviles Salmeron (Reftel) requesting a 
meeting with party leadership.  The PC's Board of Directors, 
who huddled on March 16 and agreed to hear out Vidaurre, sent 
PC Assembly lawmaker Alejandro Bolanos and two other members 
of the party's senior leadership to meet with the dissidents 
on March 18.  Aviles and Bolanos reported to PolCouns on 
March 20 that William Baez, Yali Molina, and Ariel Granera, 
all associated with the Conservative dissident group called 
the "Lilas" (lilacs) also appeared for the meeting although 
they had not signed the letter.  (Note: The Lilas supported 
Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Enrique Bolanos' 
candidacy instead of the Conservative Party presidential 
candidate Vidaurre during the 2001 elections.  The 
combination of the PC's green flag with the PLC's red banner 
creates the color purple.) 
 
What's the Hitch? 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) Aviles and Bolanos remarked that the Conservative 
dissidents' sudden interest in party unity was suspicious, 
possibly driven by "interests external to the party's." 
They are certain that the "Lilas" owe their allegiance to the 
PLC and may well have been sent by PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman 
to prompt the Conservatives to break from the Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN) and leader Montealegre, Aleman's 
political rival.  Although less certain of Vidaurre's 
motives, Aviles and Bolanos noted that Vidaurre appeared to 
have overcome his resentment of the Lilas for endorsing 
Enrique Bolanos' candidacy instead of his own, and both 
Vidaurre and the Lilas demanded the PC form its own National 
Assembly caucus as a "pre-condition" for their return to the 
party fold. 
 
Taking the "Akido" Approach 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) Bolanos recounted that he and the other party 
representatives listened to the dissidents, clarified that 
party unity would not come at the cost of leaving the ALN 
alliance, assured them that the PC's doors are open for all 
those who are willing to work, and invited them to work for 
the good of the party.  He reasoned that the party cannot 
afford to ignore the dissidents, nor allow them to make 
mischief.  Thus, PC leaders had decided to refrain from 
emotional confrontation, and instead, rely on "Akido style 
tactics" to channel the dissenters' energies to suit the 
party's purposes.  After the dissidents are reincorporated 
into the party, their loyalties and disloyalties will soon 
become evident, explained Bolanos, who predicted that most 
will come around once they receive the attention they crave. 
 
Beware of the Moles 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) Dissidents bearing especially close monitoring, 
however, are "Lilas" Baez, Molina, and Granera, as well as 
Vidaurre and talk show host Jaime Arellano, suggested 
Bolanos.  He conjectured that some of these individuals are 
working to benefit Aleman and his ally Ortega, while others 
are more driven by their interest in obtaining a leadership 
position in the Conservative party structure now that the 
party was re-energized after it won seats in the National 
Assembly.  (Note:  Aviles told us that according to a 
December 2006 poll conducted by generally reputable M&R, 
13%-17% of respondents expressed some affiliation or sympathy 
with the Conservative Party.) 
 
God, Order, and Justice 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) In a meeting with PolCouns and TDY analysts on March 
22, Aviles reiterated the PC's commitment to the ALN-PC 
alliance and its decision not to form an independent caucus 
at this juncture even though its by-laws stipulate that it 
should.  (Note: Five Conservative Party deputies and nine 
substitute deputies serve in the National Assembly.)  Aviles 
emphasized the PC's desire to reform its by-laws in order to 
help the party shed its image of an outdated, elitist party, 
although it does not intend to alter its basic motto "God, 
Order, and Justice."  While acknowledging that few 
ideological differences exist any longer between the 
Conservatives and Liberals, she noted that, unlike the 
Liberals, the Conservatives are committed to order and prefer 
gradual change. 
 
A Reluctant Leader 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Regarding the PC's alliance with the ALN, she 
clarified that her party signed an agreement in September 
2005 with Eduardo Montealegre, who at the time was without a 
party.  While she voiced her respect for Montealegre, Aviles 
also criticized his inability to effectively assert his 
leadership of the ALN, adding that Conservative lawmakers in 
the ALN-PC alliance are frustrated with their caucus' lack of 
direction in the Assembly.  She opined that while 
Montealegre's natural demeanor is that of the banker that he 
is -- not a spontaneous flesh-pressing, baby-kissing 
politician a la Arnoldo Aleman -- he could be groomed to 
project more to the people.  Aviles recounted how in her 
meeting with Monteleagre a week ago, she had attempted to 
boost his political morale -- assuring him that he is the 
most viable opposition leader, and as such, must assume the 
responsibility.  She reported Montealegre was pleased by her 
compliments, but also appeared uncertain whether he was up to 
the task. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) Conservative Party leaders have been responsive to 
our encouraging them to remain in the ALN-PC alliance and 
refrain from forming a separate caucus at this stage.  So 
long as the ALN recognizes the PC's contributions and if it 
succeeds in strengthening the alliance, the Conservatives are 
likely to maintain the status quo.  Despite Montealegre's 
introverted inclinations and his banker reputation, he is 
politically ambitious and draws public appeal, as evidenced 
in the polls.  He would benefit greatly from political 
grooming to consolidate his position as opposition leader. 
TRIVELLI