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R 131543Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHSD/SECSTATE WASHDC 3965
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
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UNCLAS LILONGWE 000186 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY//ADDED PARA 6// 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S KAMANA MATHUR 
 
STATE FOR INR/AA RITA BYRNES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR MI
SUBJECT: THE ONCE AND FUTURE PRESIDENT? MULUZI DECLARES 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Former President Bakili Muluzi, renowned 
for his government's corruption while in office, has 
announced that he will run for President again in 2009. 
Muluzi, famously coy regarding his political intentions, 
said at a mass ral|y in Blantyre on March 11 that he was 
ready to run "if the (United Democratic Front party) 
convention will elect me."  Meanwhile, a number of 
traditional chiefs, along with a new political pressure 
group called Coalition Against Muluzi, have come out 
against Muluzi's candidacy.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Muluzi, speaking at his second public rally in as 
many weeks, told supporters that he is ready to face 
former protigi and current President Bingu Wa Mutharika, 
pledging, "he cannot compete against me."  Muluzi also 
called on his party's MPs to push for local government 
elections, demanding that they be held this June.  All 
other potential UDF presidential candidates, including a 
number of current MPs, have dropped out of the race for the 
UDF nomination and declared their support for Muluzi, 
making his "selection" by the party convention a foregone 
conclusion. 
 
¶3. (SBU) At a competing rally held by President Mutharika 
in northern Malawi, Paramount Chief M'mbelwa IV called on 
Muluzi to drop out of the race.  M'mbelwa, one of the most 
senior chiefs in Malawi, said Muluzi had "left this 
country with huge debts which Mutharika has worked very 
hard to clear off."  Other traditional authorities, 
including chiefs from northern and southern Malawi, 
have also cooe ouu publicly against Muluzi's return to 
active politics. 
 
¶4. (SBU) A group of prominent journalists has also created 
an organization called the Coalition Against Muluzi, in an 
attempt to discourage people from supporting the former 
President's re-election bid.  The group, led by journalists 
Gideon Munthalh and Chinyeke Tembo, says it will have 
"massive countrywide civic education campaigns...to educate 
people in the country that what the former president wants 
to do is wrong."  The UDF has questioned the group's 
motivation and accused it of being a front for President 
Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party. 
 
¶5. (SBU) There is also debate over the legality of Mulzui, 
already having served two terms as president from 
1994-2004, running for office again.  The Malawian 
constitution limits any president to "a maximum of two 
consecutive terms."  Muluzi, who failed in a 2003 bid to 
amend the constitution to allow him to serve a third term, 
and his supporters say this means Muluzi can serve a third, 
non-consecutive term.  While most observers agree with this 
interpretation, some claim that Muluzi has already served 
his "maximum" of two consecutive terms, and is thus 
ineligible to serve another.  If Mutharika challenges this, 
it would be referred to the Constitutional Court, and then 
possibly the Supreme Court, for an interpretation.  Similar 
referrals have taken over a year to reach their conclusion, 
which could push the debate well into 2008 or even 2009. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: Contrary to what one might expect, many 
believe that Muluzi has a decent chance of winning back 
the Presidency.  Despite his administration's horrible 
economic management and wanton corruption, Muluzi still 
enjoys a good deal of popularity among the rural masses. 
An experienced orator and smooth politician, Muluzi is 
well known for giving out envelopes of cash to groups of 
supporters.  Muluzi is expected to capture a good amount 
of support in Malawi's populous southern region, as well 
as in the Muslim areas along the lakeshore.  However, the 
big winner of Muluzi's candidacy could be Malawi Congress 
Party leader John Tembo, also a presumptive candidate for 
¶2009.  President Mutharika should get the bulk of the 
votes from sparsely populated northern Malawi, and then 
could split the South with Muluzi.  This could leave Tembo, 
if he maintains his party's traditional firm grip on 
Malawi's central region, as the election winner with a 
plurality of votes.  However, with a long way between now 
and 2009, a number of things could change.  New entries 
into the race, an ongoing corruption case against Muluzi, 
the selection of running mates, and whatever may happen in 
the remainder of Mutharika's first term could all have a 
major impact on the next(election.  End Comment. 
 
EASTHAM