VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0661/01 0681237
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091237Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2770
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6614
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3935
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7823
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5071
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2303
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2412
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3365
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 4468
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4943
RUEHSJ/AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE 1617
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 9531
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0199
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND LPETRONI 
BRASILIA FOR JSTORY 
SAN JOSE FOR BLINK 
USAID/LAC FOR JBISSON 
USAID/EGAT FOR DMULLER AND CELRON 
USAID/BOGOTA FOR BBAYLE 
COMMERCE FOR JANGLIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV BL
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: BOLIVIA AT RISK 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 621 
     ¶B. 06 LA PAZ 2674 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (U) Flooding in the eastern Bolivian department of the 
Beni (ref A) has prompted a media debate about the link 
between this latest catastrophe and climate change; it has 
also generated discussion of the long-term consequences of 
the latter.  While current water levels are only five 
centimeters higher than those of 1992, when Bolivia last 
faced massive floods, this year's disaster is arguably more 
serious than events of the past.  That said, much of the 
flooding may be more closely linked to population growth and 
related deforestation than to climate change. 
 
¶2. (U) As reported in ref B, accelerating glacier melt 
provides abundant evidence of climate change, and studies 
suggest that a future of ever harsher and more frequent 
natural disasters is a distinct possibility, with severe 
droughts and floods increasingly common features of everyday 
life.  Even in relatively conservative scenarios, climate 
change poses a significant threat to Bolivia's long-term 
economic development; as such, it deserves the attention not 
only of the Bolivian government and population, but also of 
the international community.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
CLIMATE CHANGE: BOLIVIA AT RISK 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) In worst case scenarios, climate change will affect 
every department and family in Bolivia.  Increasingly serious 
natural disasters will hit ever widening areas, and tens of 
thousands will lose their livelihoods.  Water and energy will 
become scarce, and vulnerable populations will struggle to 
cope with an ever changing and increasingly unpredictable 
environment, confronted with catastrophes they cannot 
control. 
 
¶4. (U) Evidence suggests that a future of this sort is a 
distinct possibility.  A January 2007 Danish International 
Development Agency study cited "compelling" indications of 
climate change, as seen in escalating annual average 
temperatures and variations in precipitation levels; it noted 
that changes in weather patterns could exacerbate aridity in 
the mountainous regions of Bolivia's west and cause more 
frequent and severe floods in the lowland areas of the east. 
The study predicted damage to croplands and traditional 
agricultural practices and noted that more frequent natural 
disasters could cause ever greater harm to productive 
infrastructure and human livelihoods. 
 
¶5. (U) The study also called attention to expansions in the 
incidence areas of vector-borne diseases like malaria and 
dengue fever, with resulting implications for human health, 
and noted that glacier melt (ref B) and reductions in water 
reservoirs could accelerate over the next ten to twenty 
years, with negative consequences for water and hydroelectric 
energy systems.  Declines in these resources, the report 
noted, could affect everything from natural ecosystems and 
agriculture to populations' access to water and energy. 
Indeed, the study identified "a real risk" that La Paz, 
Cochabamba, and other cities could face significant water and 
energy shortages over the next two decades, which could 
threaten the productive activities of nearly a third of 
Bolivia's population. 
 
¶6. (U) According to the study's author, Javier Gonzales, who 
spoke to Econoff February 27, Bolivia's geographic and 
climatic conditions create a unique mosaic of climate-related 
risk.  Historically, the biggest natural disasters have been 
droughts in the west and floods in the east; Gonzales 
predicted that these would worsen, in time affecting ever 
larger areas and swelling numbers of families.  Future 
floods, he said, could be even more severe than those 
currently affecting large parts of the eastern departments of 
the Beni and Santa Cruz (ref A), which to date have claimed 
more than 40 lives, destroyed almost 500,000 acres of crops, 
killed an estimated 30,000 cattle, and cost Bolivia 
approximately one percent of its gross domestic product. 
 
¶7. (U) Gonzales noted that as South America's average 
temperature rises -- Global Circulation Models show an 
increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2010 -- weather 
patterns will become increasingly unpredictable. 
Precipitation could jump by as much as nine percent during 
the rainy season (December to February) while falling by an 
estimated three to nine percent in the first two to three 
months of the period; the trends could affect ecosystem 
productivity and negatively impact agricultural output in 
both the eastern and western parts of the country.  At the 
same time, more frequent occurrences of hail, frost, and 
landslides could also negatively affect populations and 
production. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8. (U) Even in relatively conservative scenarios, climate 
change poses a significant threat to Bolivia's long-term 
economic development; its consequences could easily create 
additional stress for a population frustrated by the slow 
pace of growth and subject to high levels of insecurity. 
Climate change and its potential impact deserve the attention 
not only of the Bolivian government and population, but also 
of the international community; the consequences of a failure 
to act, in Gonzales' words, are something he "prefers not to 
think about."  End comment. 
GOLDBERG