VZCZCXRO5735
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0996/01 0851646
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261646Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7071
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3839
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, S/CT, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE 
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-76, AND POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EAGR AF
SUBJECT: PRT/PANSHJIR: FUTURE PLANS OF THE PROVINCE II 
 
REF: A. KABUL 951 
     ¶B. KABUL 178 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Panjshir Province is changing.  Its 
transformation will continue thanks to agents of change: a 
new road, radio broadcasts, cell phones, a maturing 
administration and an active PRT.  Provincial officials have 
formulated specific plans to lay the foundation (ref A). 
Panjshir's future look and texture are only now emerging. 
Four positive visions have crystallized:  Massoud Park, Kabul 
Suburb, Valley Cornucopia and Salang East.  Panjshir will 
likely combine elements of all four, although Kabul Suburb 
may become dominant.  All four are in sync with the PRT 
mission.  A fifth vision, Fortress Panjshir, would become 
relevant if security deteriorated in the country.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) This is the second message in a two-part series on 
the future of Panjshir Province.  This message examines 
general provincial visions.  Ref A analyzed specific 
provincial plans. 
 
¶3. (SBU) At a ribbon-cutting event for two of the Commander's 
Emergency Response Program (CERP)-funded bridges March 15, 
the acting Governor recalled the enormous progress of the 
past few years and predicted even greater changes in the 
future.  The key document for projecting that change is the 
Provincial Development Plan (PDP).  Currently, it is more a 
list of project priorities than a vision of provincial 
potential.  Yet both, plans and visions, depend on the 
continuation of Panjshir,s status as free of insurgent 
violence, poppy cultivation, drug trafficking and major 
corruption.  Aggregating PDP projects and talking to 
influential Panjshiris, one can discern four visions of the 
future. 
 
------------------------ 
Vision One: Massoud Park 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) At the heart of this vision lies a combination of 
natural beauty and national heritage.  One Afghan contact 
compared it to that of Kyoto in Japan.  It would appeal above 
all to tourists.  Panjshir would capitalize on its pristine 
nature, preserved through the topographical and historical 
isolation of the valley.  It would offer various recreational 
options, including hiking, fishing and rafting.  Panjshir, in 
this vision, would remain protected, possibly along the lines 
of an American national park.  It would also preserve the 
Massoud legacy, especially his prominent tomb, former office 
complex, and hill-side gardens.  Tourists, including many 
internationals, have already felt the pull of Massoud's tomb. 
 The Panjshiris who espouse this vision are a mixed lot drawn 
from the ranks of environmentalists, business people, elders 
and former mujaheddin  But, without quick concerted action, 
they could see some development spoiling their Massoud Park. 
 
------------------------ 
Vision Two: Kabul Suburb 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The USAID-funded rehabilitation of the main road has 
transformed the valley, making this vision an emerging force. 
 As the Governor told A/S Boucher during his January 10 
visit, the road is the linchpin:  It connects Panjshir to 
Kabul, and Kabul to Panjshir (ref B).  Travel time has fallen 
from five to two hours.  It has enabled many workers from 
Panjshir to seek employment in the capital without abandoning 
their families.  It has allowed Panjshiris serving in the 
Afghan government, such as the Vice President, National 
Directorate of Security (NDS) Chief, and Chief of the Army 
Staff to return home on weekends.  Indeed, traffic picks up 
three-fold on the weekends.  Panjshiris cite the road as the 
most potent agent of change because of the proximity of 
Kabul.  One effect has been economic, reflected in a price 
convergence between goods in Kabul and Panjshir, thanks to 
 
KABUL 00000996  002 OF 003 
 
 
the reduction in transport costs.  This vision is playing 
out, but could be derailed by insecurity in the Shomali Plain 
lying between the province and the capital. 
 
------------------------------- 
Vision Three: Valley Cornucopia 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Panjshir possesses natural resources, the 
exploitation of which forms the core of this vision.  The 
river, for example, is clean and flows year round. 
Panjshiris are considering ways to bottle it as drinking 
water and to channel it for irrigation and hydro power.  The 
fruit and nut trees in the valley are world class, especially 
apple, apricot, almond and walnut.  Now that transport costs 
have dropped, this produce is expanding its market-share in 
Kabul.  For this reason, the Governor calls agriculture one 
of his top priorities.  By far the most profitable resource 
is emerald extraction.  According to the Deputy Governor, 
emerald exports reached a high-water mark in the early 1990s, 
then fell sharply.  Peak employment was over eight hundred 
workers.  Slowly the mines, located in two side valleys in 
the Khenj district, are coming back.  There is not, however, 
any significant outside investment so far.  This vision 
hinges on such investment.  It faces limits because of 
electricity constraints on large-scale enterprises. 
 
------------------------ 
Vision Four: Salang East 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The nearby Salang Corridor furnishes the prototype 
for this vision of a vital commercial link between Kabul and 
the North.  Along Salang's well-maintained road, a derivative 
economy has sprung up with motels, restaurants and gas 
stations.  For Panjshir, such a concept would depend on 
extension of the USAID road further northeast through the 
Anjuman Pass.  Ultimately, under this vision, the road would 
link Afghanistan to China in a modern version of the Silk 
Road.  The distance from Kabul to Badahkshan would fall by 
half.  Panjshir would benefit from the commercial traffic, 
including that siphoned off from Salang.  Of all the four 
visions, this one would take the longest time and require the 
greatest investment to realize.  Such a road is part of the 
master plan of the Ministry of Public Works but is currently 
unfunded. 
 
----------------- 
Fortress Panjshir 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) A fifth vision is in fact a throwback.  It depends 
on a bleak scenario, namely, the deterioration of security in 
the rest of the country.  Panjshiris might then roll back the 
opening of the valley.  Their province would revert to its 
previous state as a fortress, closed to the rest of the 
country and largely self-sufficient.  This instinct is rooted 
in historical experience and reinforced by the recent 
fighting against the Soviets and Taliban.  It explains 
Panjshir reluctance to turn in ammunition stocks under the 
UNDP/ANBP program and Panjshir skepticism of converting grain 
fields into specialized agriculture.  Fortress Panjshir is 
incompatible with the other visions and contradictory to the 
PRT mission. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The Panjshir Provincial Development Plan is all 
trees and no forest.  It is filled with specific priorities 
but no general visions.  Yet its individual projects could 
lead to aggregate outcomes, to four distinctly different 
visions.  All four are in sync with the PRT mission to extend 
governance, bolster security and advance reconstruction.  But 
not all of the visions are compatible with one another.  The 
 
KABUL 00000996  003 OF 003 
 
 
pastoral vision of Massoud Park, for example, could clash 
with the commercial vision of Salang East or that of valley 
cornucopia.  Based on current trends, Kabul Suburb, which may 
very well be a blend of the other three, displays the 
strongest momentum.  Fortress Panjshir, with its emphasis on 
closing and not opening the valley, may seem the antithetical 
vision; but Panjshiris have lived it and have never discarded 
it. END COMMENT. 
NEUMANN