VZCZCXRO1067
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHHE #0172/01 0681312
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091312Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3057
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 4689
RUEHRK/AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK 0292

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND ELECTION 2007 
 
REF: A. HELSINKI 150 
 
     ¶B. HELSINKI 94 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: For months, both the polls and 
conventional wisdom have suggested that Finland's Center 
Party (CEN) and Social Democrats (SDP) will finish one- 
two in the March 18 elections and return to government. 
In the final weeks of the campaign, CEN has indeed 
consolidated its lead, but the SDP has suffered major 
public relations damage, thanks to a union-sponsored 
public service ad.  History and bureaucratic advantages 
still favor the Social Democrats' getting themselves 
into government, but for the first time the slim 
possibility of an upset has emerged.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) For more than 60 years, it has been something 
of a foregone conclusion going into any parliamentary 
election that the SDP would emerge as the driving player 
in the resulting coalition government, regardless of who 
might actually win a plurality of seats.  A series of 
historical and bureaucratic advantages have accrued to 
the SDP over the decades, allowing the party a certain 
pride of place -- some opponents even criticize it as a 
self-ascribed "divine right" -- regarding its persistent 
presence in government (Ref B).  Throughout the current 
campaign, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen's CEN has 
appeared likely to win a plurality at the polls, but 
this long-standing conventional wisdom regarding the SDP 
has led most to assume it will take a strong, if not 
dominant, role in a new CEN-SDP government. 
 
A PR DEBACLE 
------------ 
¶3. (SBU) However, in these final two weeks before the 
election, the SDP has suffered an unexpected public 
relations disaster.  In late February, the "allegedly 
apolitical" Finnish Confederation of Labor Unions (SAK) 
began running "allegedly apolitical" get-out-the-vote 
public service messages on TV and in print urging all 
Finns to exercise their civic duty.  The ads, however, 
featured an obese, elderly, smirking, "bourgeois" tycoon 
sitting in luxurious surroundings before a glutton-like 
spread of food and liquor.  Aloof and arrogant, he 
sneers, "No, don't go out and vote -- just let me decide 
everything for you." 
 
¶4. (U) By US standards, not remotely an offensive 
advertisement -- but in Finland it provoked an uproar. 
Editorial pages and talk shows brimmed for days with 
angry attacks accusing the SAK of classism; ageism; 
anti-bourgeois scare tactics; anti-entrepeneurism; 
gluttony; poor taste; elitism; and even attempts to 
recall the bitter social divisions in Finland that 
followed the 1918 civil war between the Communist "Reds" 
and the land- and business-owning "Whites." 
 
¶5. (U) Accusations also abounded that the SDP -- and 
particularly Party Leader Eero Heinaluoma -- was behind 
the ad.  In theory, the SAK is independent.  However, 
its members overwhelming vote SDP and several leading 
SDP politicians (including President Tarja Halonen) 
first rose to prominence within the SAK.  Heinaluoma was 
Secretary General until only four years ago, and he owes 
 
SIPDIS 
his rapid rise as party leader to the SDP's powerful 
labor wing.  Given this close association with SAK, 
Heinaluoma was quickly accused of underwriting the 
offensive ads, intensifying an already-negative public 
image that the SDP leader and de facto PM candidate has 
been unable to shake.  He has not confirmed or denied 
involvement with the ad -- a wise move, one prominent 
commentator noted, given that even if he had nothing to 
do with the ads, no one would believe him.  For its 
part, SAK responded humbly and contritely (and some 
argue brilliantly), withdrawing the ad and issuing in 
its place a spot that apologized for any offense and 
simply encouraged people to vote. 
 
Conservative Momentum; SDP Malaise 
---------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) The nasty ad is gone, but the damage is done. 
The first major poll following the ad's release, 
commissioned by the Finnish Broadcasting Company, showed 
CEN likely to attract 24.6 percent of the vote, followed 
by the SDP at 22.6 percent and the Conservative Party 
(CONS) at 21.9.  Based on a 2-point margin of error, 
CONS and SDP are now in a statistical dead heat.  Only 
six weeks ago, CEN and SDP were statistically tied for 
the lead, with CONS trailing by more than five points. 
The Conservatives' gain (or the SDP's loss, depending on 
one's perspective) is the result of many factors, 
including the return of Sauli Niinisto as a CONS 
 
HELSINKI 00000172  002 OF 002 
 
 
candidate and Heinaluoma's aforementioned failure to 
develop any personal rapport with voters.  But no one is 
discounting the SAK ad either. 
 
¶7. (SBU) An SDP failure to get into government would 
still constitute a major upset by any measure, but for 
the first time there are whispers both inside and 
outside the party that the possibility exists.  CONS 
candidates, who a month ago were talking even in public 
of perhaps returning to government in 2011, suddenly 
feel a bit of wind at their backs.  As one candidate 
told us, "Second place was the SDP's to lose -- and 
maybe they've actually gone and done that."  On the 
other hand, a certain malaise has crept into the SDP 
camp.  Although still confident of their inherent 
advantages, SDP politicians acknowledge that nothing 
good can come of the SAK flap or of Heinaloma's enduring 
unpopularity.  FM Tuomioja -- the closest thing the SDP 
has to a "superstar" in the electorate's eyes -- even 
lamented recent developments to the Ambassador.  "It is 
no longer a sure thing that my party will get into 
government.  I'm just focusing now on getting myself and 
maybe a few others into parliament," he said, referring 
to the SDP's high expectations for his coat tails. 
 
COMMENT: HEDGING THE FINAL BET 
------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) The SAK ad disaster and the narrowing of the 
gap between CONS and SDP has injected a note of 
excitement into the campaign.  However, long-time 
observers caution that the polls always tighten as 
election day nears, and the safe money is probably still 
on CEN to win; SDP to place; and CONS to show.  If this 
is the case, the return of a CEN-SDP led coalition seems 
likely.  Still, the slim possibility of a surprise or 
even an upset -- either at the polls or in the coalition 
negotiations -- has become real for the first time.  If 
CONS overtakes the SDP or even draws to within a 
parliamentary seat or two, all bets on what follows in 
terms of the new government could be off. 
HYATT