VZCZCXRO7949
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0696/01 0861412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271412Z MAR 07 ZDK SVC RUEHFN #0736 1071114
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7955
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 000696 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR S/CPR, AF, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/IL, AND INR/AA 
DOL FOR SECRETARY CHAO 
NSC FOR AF SENIOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP ELAB PGOV ECON EAID PREL KMCA SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENTIAL DELEGATION ATTENDING 
THE APRIL 3 INAUGURATION 
 
DAKAR 00000696  001.4 OF 004 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) As the Mission and the Government of Senegal (GOS) prepare 
to host you, Senegal is preparing for President Abdoulaye Wade's 
second inauguration on April 3, 2007.  The Senegalese are proud to 
have a predominantly Muslim democracy that preaches tolerance and 
visibly supports the United States in promoting peace and combating 
terrorism.  The GOS is seeking to enhance economic growth to 
reinforce its prospects at the polls.  Growth has remained steady at 
five percent over the last decade, though growth in 2006 was 
probably less than three percent.  Despite high rates of poverty and 
illiteracy, Senegal retains a high degree of political stability and 
coherence thus enabling GOS to be a diplomatic player on a continent 
replete with conflicts.  With U.S. training and assistance, Senegal 
has also become one of the world's top ten contributors of 
peacekeepers. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Senegal aspires to become a more significant trading 
partner, but Senegalese producers have yet to make serious efforts 
to tap into the U.S. market, preferring to focus their exports on 
regional and European countries.  The overall economic malaise, 
especially in the agriculture and fishing sectors, has resulted in 
mass illegal migration of Senegalese to the Canary Islands (and 
hence, the European Union), a thorny issue for the GOS.  The 
prospect of a successful Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) Compact 
offers a realistic potential for breaking with the past.  Senegal 
must improve the investment climate and push forward more vigorously 
with reforms to strengthen its fragile judiciary that is lacking 
sufficient resources and often subject to external influences.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
AN IMPERFECT DEMOCRACY 
---------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) Senegal is at an interesting juncture in its 
post-independence history.  On February 25, President Abdoulaye Wade 
(pronounced "wahd") won 56 percent of the vote in a field of 15 
candidates, with 70 percent of registered Senegalese voters going to 
the polls.  Twice-postponed parliamentary elections are slated for 
June 3.  In 2000 and 2007, Wade won open, peaceful and highly 
competitive elections due to a strong Senegalese national desire for 
change after nearly 40 years of Socialist Party governments.  Having 
come under tough scrutiny and criticism for not having realized many 
of his campaign promises, he has undertaken major public works 
projects that benefited him politically. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Wade and his party, the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), 
have benefited from Senegal's institutionalization of democratic 
values, respect for human rights, expansion of tolerance, 
advancement of women's rights, and freedom of expression in all its 
forms.  As a consequence, the standards by which the performance of 
his government is being measured are admittedly higher than those of 
his predecessors, a healthy sign that the large majority of 
Senegalese expect and demand democratic behavior from this 
government. 
 
SENEGAL'S UNIQUE BRAND OF ISLAM 
------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Senegal is 95 percent Muslim, and it is instinctively 
resistant to religious extremism.  One reason for this moderation is 
Senegal's distinctive and flexible interpretation of Islam.  Another 
may be its geographic position at the western edge of the Islamic 
world.  But perhaps the principal reason is the pervasive influence 
of Sufi brotherhoods that are hostile to external influences that 
they perceive as undercutting their own stature.  The majority of 
Senegalese identify themselves with one of the four principal 
Brotherhoods (Tidjane, Mouride, Qu'adria and Layenne).  Religious 
chiefs are called marabouts.  Followers or talibes are expected to 
attach themselves to a marabout, and this allegiance is like a 
feeling for a father.  In many ways the marabouts have replaced the 
traditional village chiefs.  Politicians use these affiliations to 
advance their policies. 
 
SENEGAL'S ECONOMY: AN ACHILLES HEEL 
----------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) There is general economic stability, and GDP growth 
averaged five percent annually for the last ten years.  It likely 
fell to less than three percent in 2006.  More than half the 
population lives in poverty; one-third to one-half have no reliable 
employment; the agricultural sector, which employs 60 percent of the 
population, is weak and unreliable; fishing, another big livelihood 
provider, has also been depressed mostly due to diminished fish 
stocks.  Most youth see emigration as a panacea, as shown by the 
recent flight of thousands of Senegalese, via small and dangerous 
boats, to the Canary Islands -- an entry to the European Union.  On 
a more positive note, Senegal graduated from the Highly Indebted 
 
DAKAR 00000696  002.3 OF 004 
 
 
Poor Countries program.  In 2005 and 2006, the IMF and the World 
Bank forgave over USD 1 billion in multilateral debt, potentially 
freeing up over USD 80 million per year for poverty reduction. 
Despite these successes, the business environment remains difficult. 
 Corruption is an issue, and while Wade has said the right things 
about combating it, members of his own family are often rumored to 
demand bribes and percentages of investments.  In the coming year, 
Senegal will face a serious budget crunch and will look to donors 
for assistance.  Most traditional donors, for their part, are 
hesitant to provide budget support without greater transparency and 
accountability of expenditures by the GOS. 
 
CLANDESTINE MIGRATION: SOCIAL ISSUE OF THE DAY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶7.  (U) Starting in mid-May 2006, the flow of illegal African 
migrants landing on the shores of Spain's Canary Islands reached 
alarming levels.  Over 27,000 illegal migrants, more than half of 
whom are Senegalese, were detained by Spanish authorities in 2006. 
Of the 27,000, more than 5,000 migrants have been repatriated to 
Senegal.  This has generated extensive press coverage by the local 
and international media and became a priority for the Government. 
On October 10, Senegalese Foreign Minister Cheikh Tidiane Gadio and 
his Spanish counterpart, Miguel Angel Moratinos, signed a framework 
agreement paving the way for legal immigration based on Spanish job 
market needs.  Based on the agreement, Spain will provide Senegal 
with up to USD 19 million annually over five years.  Several other 
European countries and the European Commission have also donated 
funds and equipment to improve surveillance of the Senegalese coast 
and improve border enforcement. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES START IN NEIGHBORHOOD 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶8.  (SBU) Senegal devotes major efforts to maintaining stability on 
its borders.  While politically Wade has worked hard to expand 
Senegal's role on the continent and in world affairs, his government 
actually expends real resources (financial, material and 
humanitarian) to its near neighbors.  For example, Wade has been 
engaged in Guinea-Bissau since the September 2003 coup d'etat. 
Characteristic of Senegal's regional anxieties, Wade and his 
government continue to express great concern over the eventual 
transition in nearby Guinea in light of the failing health of its 
leader, the potential for disruptions, and a resulting influx of 
refugees to Senegal.  Wade traveled to Conakry earlier this month to 
underscore his support for the new Prime Minister and to call 
international attention to Guinea's plight.  Also, the sometimes 
erratic behavior of the recently re-elected Gambian President 
Jammeh, who rules the strategically located strip of land that juts 
into Senegal, raises Senegalese concerns over The Gambia's 
stability. 
 
CASAMANCE CONFLICT 
------------------ 
¶9.  (SBU) Internal conflict in Senegal's southernmost region of the 
Casamance has regional security implications because it borders The 
Gambia and Guinea-Bissau.  In the last year, there has been an 
increase in fighting between factions of the Casamance separatist 
movement in southern Senegal and the Senegalese military.  Reports 
of banditry in the area have also increased.  At least seven 
civilians died and over 35 were wounded in security incidents in the 
Casamance in 2006.  We continue to use our influence with GOS 
civilian and military institutions as well as with representatives 
of local communities in the Casamance to achieve reconciliation and 
a lasting resolution to the conflict. 
 
U.S. ASSISTANCE 
--------------- 
¶10.  (SBU) In addition to supporting the Casamance peace process, 
U.S. assistance to Senegal has focused on Muslim outreach, health, 
education, export promotion, promotion of women's rights, good 
governance and decentralization.  Approximately 150 Peace Corps 
Volunteers are involved in health, education, natural resource 
management and micro-enterprise programs.  Our model Muslim outreach 
program consists of assisting daaras (koranic schools), sending 
imams, marabouts and Islamic scholars to the United States on 
International Visitor programs and donating Arabic- and 
English-language materials to Islamic schools and libraries.  The 
proposed MCA Compact would more than double annual U.S. aid, 
building an industrial platform 25 miles east of Dakar to decongest 
the capital, create thousands of jobs in agro-industry and other 
sectors, and help GDP growth to reach eight percent per annum. 
 
COMMITMENT TO REGIONAL SECURITY/COOPERATION WITH U.S. 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶11.  (SBU) Senegal has been a loyal partner and has served as an 
operational base for every U.S. deployment to the region.  The GOS 
 
DAKAR 00000696  003.5 OF 004 
 
 
has supported the United States by deploying troops to the Gulf War, 
Bosnia, Haiti, Rwanda, the Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, 
Sierra Leone, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 
and, most recently, Sudan.  Senegal was the first African nation to 
sign up for the African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) [now the 
African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA)] 
program that provides military assistance and training to African 
militaries with the capability of participating in peacekeeping 
operations, principally in Africa.  ACOTA complements what remains 
the largest International Military Education and Training (IMET) 
program in Sub-Saharan Africa.  This has paid major dividends 
through the engagement of Senegalese troops in their traditional 
areas of interest (Cote d'Ivoire) and in areas of traditional 
interest to us (Liberia). 
 
THE U.S.-SENEGAL AGENDA 
----------------------- 
¶12.  (SBU) For the U.S., Senegal represents our most important 
francophone partner in Africa.  Perhaps not coincidentally, 
President Wade perceives himself as a good friend of President Bush. 
 He basked in the glow of the President's visit in July 2003, his 
December 2004 visit to the White House, Secretary of State Rice and 
Secretary of Agriculture Johanns' July 2005 visits and invitations 
 
SIPDIS 
to two G-8 summits.  For Senegal, the U.S. represents an attractive 
alternative to complete dependence on France.  We also embody values 
that Wade would like to establish in Senegal, particularly economic 
ones.  However, there is a realistic appreciation among 
knowledgeable Senegalese that the U.S. is not likely to supplant 
France as its principal partner any time in the foreseeable future. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) On terrorism, Senegal has been among the first African 
states to recognize the dangers posed to its own security by 
international terrorism.  It has cooperated actively with the U.S. 
in the global war on terrorism, and Senegal has ratified 12 of the 
13 key anti-terrorist conventions and protocols identified by the 
U.S.  President Wade has also sent a set of draft laws to the 
Ministry of Interior that would expand the definition of terrorist 
acts and increase punishments for these acts.  Senegal is also 
leading regional efforts to combat terrorist financing. 
Intelligence sharing and vigilance along Senegal's borders is good 
and continues to improve through well-established channels.  We have 
raised our concerns with Senegal's leaders over the potential for 
unwanted influences from radical Muslim states, such as Iran. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) We continue to scrutinize Senegal's relationship with 
Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Cuba.  Thus far, Senegal has done a good 
job in compartmentalizing anQmanaging those relationships to ensure 
that they do not act to undermine Senegal's stability.  We also 
continue to remind Senegal's leaders that too close an embrace will 
not be well understood nor well appreciated in Washington.  Thus 
far, Wade has gotten the message.  With respect to the situation in 
Iraq, Senegal has been more neutral than during the first Gulf War. 
(Senegal proudly provided troops to help evict Saddam from Kuwait.) 
Senegal resisted French pressure to take a more critical posture, 
and in fact Wade publicly noted his satisfaction that Saddam had 
been removed from power.  Since diplomatic relations were 
re-established in October 2005, China has been playing an 
increasingly visible role as a development partner, and the market 
share of Chinese products, especially cheap consumer goods and 
equipment and vehicles.  Large-scale foreign investment, however, 
has come mostly from France, Morocco, and India 
 
INVESTMENT CLIMATE 
------------------ 
¶15.  (U) Potential investors, and current businesses, are concerned 
about Senegal's energy situation, about the slow pace of 
establishing an effective and transparent judiciary that understands 
commercial issues, about needed education reform, especially the 
lack of vocational education, and about burdensome labor laws that 
deter hiring and make dismissals for cause difficult.  Through our 
assistance programs and the donor community's Private Sector Working 
Group -- which is chaired by the U.S. Ambassador -- we are actively 
working with the GOS in advancing policy reforms, such as reducing 
the time and cost to start a business. 
 
CHILD LABOR 
----------- 
¶16.  (SBU) Senegal continues to make incremental progress in 
addressing the worst forms of child labor, but the problem persists, 
primarily in the form of child begging.  The GOS includes the 
elimination of the worst forms of child labor by 2015 as a policy 
priority in its overarching Poverty Reduction Strategy.  Senegal's 
Department of Statistics and Economic Study, in conjunction with the 
ILO's Department of Statistics, is finalizing a major survey on the 
worst forms of child labor in Senegal.  Scheduled to be released in 
 
DAKAR 00000696  004.3 OF 004 
 
 
2007, this report is designed to provide, for the first time in 
Senegal, comprehensive data on the child labor situation and how it 
has changed over the past year.  Mr. Aliou Seck, ILO-IPEC 
coordinator for Senegal, told us that Senegal's 2007 budget includes 
approximately USD 18 million for "child welfare" programs, including 
additional measures to address child labor issues in particular 
street children and beggars.  At least some of this money should be 
available to examine fraudulent religious schools that are often a 
front for child begging, and to fund programs for the street 
children, underage domestic workers, and the sexual exploitation of 
children.  Seck is also pursuing a 2007 GOS-IPEC program to 
reinforce capacity building of judges and labor inspectors, improve 
Senegal's legal framework (such as the discrepancy between the legal 
age for ending school and beginning work), reinforce the campaign 
against exploiting child beggars, and improve the public awareness 
effort, particularly among Senegal's opinion leaders.  However, with 
an annual population growth rate of 2.3 percent, increasing demands 
on an already over-burdened education system (public, private, and 
religious), and a stagnant economy, there will be no quick solution 
for Senegal's child labor problems.  The ILO's Seck told us recently 
that the establishing even a minimal program to monitor the vast 
problem of child domestic workers is not even on the GOS's radar 
screen. 
 
BOTTOM LINE 
----------- 
¶17.  (SBU) Senegal under Wade is a good partner, very sympathetic to 
U.S. interests, and regularly seeking ways to deepen the 
relationship.  Senegal is eager to receive critical Millennium 
Challenge Corporation (MCC) funding, and, though the GOS is eager to 
conclude its Compact in 2007, the due diligence required to complete 
the project's scope of work may push the signing date to 2008. 
Economically, Senegal continues to seek U.S. partners and 
participants to improve its economy, especially in agro-industry, 
telecommunications, energy and transport.  Bilateral relations are 
very warm and continue to deepen as we expand our areas of 
cooperation and seek additional sectors of mutual benefit.  Senegal 
also carefully considers potential U.S. reactions to its particular 
foreign policy decisions, often responding favorably when we express 
our concerns, or when we seek GOS support.  In sum, Senegal enjoys a 
close identification with the United States and many of our policies 
and values. 
 
JACOBS