VZCZCXRO4985
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #0858 0850636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260636Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4248
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS CAIRO 000858 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: CAIRO ON THE EVE OF THE NATIONAL REFERENDUM 
 
REF: CAIRO 816 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) As the country readies for the rushed March 26 
referendum on President Hosni Mubarak's constitutional 
amendments package, the government apparatus has swung 
belatedly into gear to raise public awareness about the 
event.  All Egyptian TV channels - terrestrial and satellite 
- broadcast advertisements on March 24 and 25 calling on 
citizens to, "have a share in shaping the future of Egypt," 
by going to the polls.  Several channels also featured clips 
of patriotic songs, and interviews with ruling party 
officials on the constitutional amendments.  The Grand Shaykh 
of Al Azhar (the highest religious authority for Egyptian 
Muslims) urged Egyptians to participate in the referendum 
during a March 23 press conference, stressing that it is a 
"religious duty" for Muslims to vote.  Egyptian TV also 
carried a March 25 Mubarak speech at Assiyut University, in 
which he exhorted Egyptians to go to the polls, and stated 
that the amendments, "represent an unprecedented development 
of our constitutional infrastructure, which will change the 
face of, and open new doors in front of, the political, 
parliamentarian and partisan lives in Egypt."  In a 
rhetorical swipe at critics of the amendments, Mubarak also 
said, "I will never relinquish Egypt's interests, 
sovereignty, and independent will.  I do not accept any 
pressures, dictations or conditions.  I will not be dragged 
into jeopardizing the future of this homeland." 
 
¶2. (SBU) On March 25, just one day before the referendum, all 
major newspapers ran pages dedicated to educating voters 
about the referendum, what the constitution is, and how to 
vote, but no paper carried the text of the amendments being 
voted on.  Prominent human rights activist Bahey El Din 
Hassan was quoted on that topic in the leading daily Al Masry 
Al Yom: "What will citizens vote for if they are not aware of 
what the amendments are?"  Many Cairo neighborhoods are 
festooned in home-made banners (apparently hung by local NDP 
parliamentarians, whose names are featured prominently), 
exhorting Egyptians to "Join the Coronation of Democracy - 
Vote in the Referendum!" and "Vote Yes to the Amendments, 
Which Will Bring Stability and Investment!"  Meanwhile, 
unscientific polling of several local fruit vendors in 
downtown Cairo, conducted by poloff, demonstrated negligible 
popular awareness of the referendum ("Vote? Vote about what? 
Is it another presidential election?"). 
 
¶3. (SBU) All major opposition forces, including the Wafd and 
Taggamu parties (which were the last to announce their 
intent), have called for a boycott of the referendum. 
Activists attempted to gather in central Cairo's Liberation 
Square for a Kefaya-organized evening protest on March 25. 
The police presence around the square was overwhelming hours 
before the planned start of the protest, with 55 large 
security trucks filled with riot police ringing the area, and 
when poloff observed the square an hour after the planned 
start of the protest, it was clear no demonstration had 
materialized.  Poloff observed a small protest - 30-45 people 
- at the nearby press syndicate, with demonstrators chanting 
"Down, down with Mubarak," under the watchful eyes of several 
hundred policemen.  Independent newspapers report that the 
Interior Ministry has canceled all leave for officers and 
policemen until after the referendum. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Egyptian civil society groups continue to scramble 
to prepare volunteer monitors to deploy on March 26.  The 
quasi-governmental National Council for Human Rights (NCHR) 
announced that it will open an operations center to 
coordinate its coverage of the referendum.  NCHR also 
declared that it would mobilize 330 lawyers to observe the 
polling.  The exact number of civil society monitors planning 
to deploy remains uncertain due to the last-minute efforts to 
mobilize monitors.  Several civil society leaders with whom 
we spoke on March 25 expressed increasing worry about the 
GOE's tough approach towards demonstrators.  One such leader 
said that he anticipated spending referendum day "trying to 
get the protesters out of jail"; other activists expressed 
fears to poloff that the GOE would target bloggers and other 
youthful activists for arrests. 
 
RICCIARDONE