VZCZCXYZ0008
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEGA #0816 0801513
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211513Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CAIRO 000816 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL EG
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: NATIONAL REFERENDUM 
DATE MOVED UP, OPPOSITION PLANS BOYCOTT 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 736 
     ¶B. CAIRO 671 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: IN A SURPRISE MOVE, FOLLOWING PARLIAMENT'S 
MARCH 19 PASSAGE OF PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S CONSTITUTIONAL 
AMENDMENTS PACKAGE, THE GOE MOVED UP THE DATE FOR THE 
OBLIGATORY SUBSEQUENT NATIONAL REFERENDUM TO MARCH 26, TEN 
DAYS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  IN THE MIDST OF 
APPARENT DECREASING GOVERNMENT TOLERANCE FOR ANTI-AMENDMENTS 
DEMONSTRATIONS, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) ON MARCH 21 
ANNOUNCED THAT IT WOULD URGE EGYPTIAN VOTERS TO BOYCOTT THE 
REFERENDUM; TWO OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE DONE THE SAME, AND 
OTHERS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. THE RULING PARTY, MEANWHILE, IS 
UNDERTAKING A CONCERTED "GET-OUT-THE-VOTE" OPERATION, IN AN 
EFFORT TO ENSURE A RESPECTABLE TURNOUT, AS CIVIL SOCIETY 
MONITORS SCRAMBLE TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS TO MONITOR 
THE BALLOTING.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
PARLIAMENT APPROVES AMENDMENTS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) IN AN UNUSUAL LATE-NIGHT SESSION, ON MARCH 19 THE 
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY APPROVED PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S PROPOSED 34 
AMENDMENTS TO THE EGYPTIAN CONSTITUTION.  THE PREVIOUS TWO 
DAYS OF PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE WERE LARGELY BOYCOTTED BY 
ISLAMIST AND INDEPENDENT MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND ON MARCH 
18 THE BLOC OF 88 MB MP'S, TOGETHER WITH 14 OTHER OPPOSITION 
LEGISLATORS, DEMONSTRATED OUTSIDE OF PARLIAMENT IN FRONT OF 
AN OVERWHELMING GOVERNMENT SECURITY PRESENCE, WEARING BLACK 
SASHES STATING "NO TO OVERTURNING THE CONSTITUTION," AND 
CARRYING SIGNS ANNOUNCING THE "DEATH OF THE CONSTITUTION" AND 
THE "EXTINCTION OF FREE ELECTIONS AND PERSONAL LIBERTIES." 
IN THE MARCH 19 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE, HELD A DAY EARLIER THAN 
ANTICIPATED, 315 MP'S (ALL FROM THE RULING NATIONAL 
DEMOCRATIC PARTY) APPROVED THE AMENDMENTS, WHILE 109 MP'S 
REJECTED THEM.  THE VOTES AGAINST THE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES 
WERE FROM THE 88 MB PARLIAMENTARIANS, 10 INDEPENDENT MP'S, 5 
AL WAFD MP'S, 2 NDP PARLIAMENTARIANS (TAHER HOZAYEN AND 
MOHAMED HUSSEIN), 2 KARAMA PARTY MP'S, 1 TAGGAMU MP, AND 1 AL 
GHAD MP. 
 
¶3. (SBU) IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE VOTE, DEBATE AMONG LEGISLATORS 
REPORTEDLY FOCUSED ON THE CONTROVERSIAL CHANGES TO 
CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLE 88 (TERMINATING THE DIRECT JUDICIAL 
SUPERVISION OF ELECTIONS), ARTICLE 179 (PROVIDING THE 
GOVERNMENT THE FLEXIBILITY TO MAINTAIN POWERS IT WOULD 
OTHERWISE LOSE WITH THE DE-ACTIVATION OF THE EMERGENCY LAW), 
AND ARTICLE 84 (GIVING THE PM, INSTEAD OF THE SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT, THE AUTHORITY TO TEMPORARILY ASSUME THE POWERS OF 
THE PRESIDENCY IN THE EVENT OF THE PRESIDENTS 
INCAPACITATION).  THE OPPOSITION STRENUOUSLY COMPLAINED THAT 
THE RULING PARTY DISREGARDED ITS INPUT ON THESE CHANGES, AS 
WELL AS OTHERS, AT EVERY STEP OF THE AMENDMENTS PROCESS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
REFERENDUM MOVED TO MARCH 26, OPPOSITION PLANS BOYCOTT 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) IN A MOVE SURPRISING EVEN TO SOME RULING PARTY 
INSIDERS, ON MARCH 20 THE PRESIDENT ISSUED A DECREE 
ANNOUNCING THE OBLIGATORY NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON THE 
AMENDMENTS WOULD BE HELD ON MARCH 26, TEN DAYS EARLIER THAN 
HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANTICIPATED.  OPPOSITIONISTS AND CIVIL 
SOCIETY ACTIVISTS WERE QUICK TO DECRY THE DATE CHANGE.  MB 
PARLIAMENTARY BLOC LEADER MOHAMED SAAD AL KATATNI TOLD 
JOURNALISTS, "THE ONLY EXPLANATION FOR THE SPEED AT WHICH 
THESE AMENDMENTS ARE BEING APPROVED THE NEW DATE FOR THE 
REFERENDUM IS TO KEEP THE OPPOSITION FROM INFORMING THE 
PEOPLE HOW DANGEROUS THEY ARE."  PROMINENT LIBERAL ACTIVIST 
BAHEY EL DIN HASSAN COMMENTED THAT, "THE GOVERNMENTS HURRY 
IN UNDERTAKING THE REFERENDUM REVEALS THAT IT DISPARAGES THE 
OPPOSITION AND PUBLIC OPINION ... AND DEMONSTRATES THE 
GOVERNMENT'S INSISTENCE TO PASS THESE AMENDMENTS AS FAST AS 
POSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE ITS RESULTS." 
 
¶5. (SBU) ON MARCH 21, THE MB ANNOUNCED THAT THE GROUP WOULD 
BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM, RATHER THAN URGE EGYPTIANS TO VOTE 
AGAINST THE AMENDMENTS.  THE MB'S DEPUTY SUPREME GUIDE, 
MOHAMED HABIB, RELEASED A STATEMENT URGING EGYPTIANS TO 
BOYCOTT, AND "NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS FARCE THAT WILL LEAD 
TO MORE DICTATORSHIP, REPRESSION, AND TYRANNY IN EGYPT."  THE 
GHAD AND NASSERITE PARTIES HAD EARLIER ANNOUNCED THEIR PLANS 
TO BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM, WHILE THE WAFD AND TAGGAMU PARTIES 
HAVE NOT YET RELEASED A FORMAL POSITION, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
ALSO CALL FOR A BOYCOTT.  THE NDP, MEANWHILE, IS REPORTED TO 
BE UNDERTAKING A CONCERTED "GET-OUT-THE-VOTE" OPERATION, IN 
AN EFFORT TO ENSURE A RESPECTABLE TURNOUT ON MARCH 26.  NDP 
SECRETARY-GENERAL SAFWAT EL SHERIF WAS QUOTED IN THE EGYPTIAN 
 
SIPDIS 
PRESS AS CALLING THOSE WHO WOULD BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM "WEAK 
COWARDS," AND OUTLINING NDP PLANS TO HOLD "MASS CONFERENCES" 
IN EGYPT'S PROVINCES IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE REFERENDUM, TO 
INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE EVENT. EL SHERIF ALSO 
ASSERTED THAT AN OPERATIONS CENTER UNDER HIS SUPERVISION 
WOULD OPERATE "AROUND THE CLOCK" UNTIL THE REFERENDUM, TO 
MONITOR THE "RESULTS OF THE CONFERENCES."  THE MB, MEANWHILE, 
IS ALREADY ALLEGEDING THAT THE NDP WILL RIG THE BALLOTING BY 
MISUSE OF PROXY VOTERS. 
 
---------------------------- 
MONITORING OF THE REFERENDUM 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS ARE SCRAMBLING TO COMPLETE 
THEIR PREPARATIONS TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM.  THE NAQIB 
CENTER, FUNDED UNDER A USAID GRANT FOR VARIOUS 2007 ELECTION 
MONITORING INITIATIVES, PLANS TO HAVE AT LEAST 300 OBSERVERS 
IN THE FIELD.  THE QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR 
HUMAN RIGHTS HAS ENDORSED THE NAQIB EFFORT. THE EGYPTIAN 
ASSOCIATION FOR SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY, A USAID GRANTEE AND 
PAST-MEPI RECIPIENT, AIMS TO DEPLOY AT LEAST 350 OBSERVERS. 
THE IBN KHALDUN CENTER, A MEPI GRANTEE, IS HEADING ANOTHER 
COALITION OF SMALLER NGOS AND WILL ALSO DEPLOY OBSERVERS, 
THOUGH THEY ARE NOT AT THIS POINT ABLE TO PROVIDE AN ESTIMATE 
OF THE NUMBER OF PERSONNEL TO BE DEPLOYED.  THE EGYPTIAN 
ORGANIZATION FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IS EXPECTED ALSO TO DEPLOY AN 
UNKNOWN NUMBER OF MONITORS.  THE INFLUENTIAL JUDGES' CLUB, 
AMIDST STRONG DENOUNCEMENTS OF THE AMENDMENTS TO ARTICLES 88 
AND 179, HAS ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL FORM A FACT-FINDING 
COMMISSION TO OBSERVE THE REFERENDUM.  (NOTE:  THE GOE HAS 
ARGUED THAT THE 2000 CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MANDATING 
FULL JUDICIAL SUPERVISION OF ELECTIONS DOES NOT APPLY TO 
REFERENDA.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶7. (SBU)  THE TIGHT TIME CONSTRAINTS AND THE GOE'S BAN ON 
ACTIVITIES BY THE U.S. POLITICAL PARTY INSTITUTES, IRI AND 
NDI, ARE LIKELY TO WORK AGAINST SUCCESSFUL DOMESTIC 
MONITORING OF THE REFERENDUM.  IN 2005, FOR EXAMPLE, NDI 
PLAYED A KEY SUPPORT ROLE IN ADVISING EGYPTIAN NGOS ABOUT 
MONITORING "BEST PRACTICES" AND PROVIDED ASSISTANCE WITH 
TRAINING, MEDIA OUTREACH AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SKILLS; A ROLE 
THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO UNDERTAKE THIS TIME.  NEVERTHELESS, 
WE BELIEVE THAT EGYPTIAN CIVIL SOCIETY, EVEN WORKING UNDER 
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS, IS POISED TO PROVIDE A REASONABLY 
THOROUGH ASSESSMENT OF THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MARCH 26 
REFERENDUM. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
GOE TAKING TOUGH STANCE ON DEMONSTRATIONS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) MEANWHILE, GOVERNMENTAL TOLERANCE FOR DEMONSTRATIONS 
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS TENSIONS RISE. ON MARCH 15, 
HUNDREDS OF RIOT POLICE WERE DEPLOYED IN AND AROUND CENTRAL 
CAIRO'S LIBERATION SQUARE TO CONTAIN A SMALL DEMONSTRATION 
AGAINST THE AMENDMENTS BY SEVERAL DOZEN KEFAYA PROTESTERS. 
GOE SECURITY OFFICIALS DETAINED AT LEAST 21 ACTIVISTS, 
EVENTUALLY RELEASING THEM ON MARCH 17.  ON MARCH 19, 20, AND 
21, THE POLICE DEPLOYED IN FORCE AROUND PARLIAMENT IN AN 
APPARENT EFFORT TO THWART PROTESTS IN SOLIDARITY WITH 
OPPOSITION MPS.  THE GOVERNMENT-BACKED AL-AHRAM NEWSPAPER 
REPORTED ON MARCH 21 THAT AN UNNAMED SECURITY OFFICIAL HAS 
"WARNED AGAINST THE ATTEMPTS OF ILLEGITIMATE FORCES TO 
INFLUENCE THE PROCESS OF THE REFERENDUM, VIOLATE SECURITY, 
AND IMPEDE MOBILITY IN THE STREETS ON THE DAY OF THE 
REFERENDUM ... THE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IS A RIGHT 
GUARANTEED BY LAW, BUT DEMONSTRATIONS THAT AIM TO CAUSE 
MAYHEM TO PUBLIC LIFE WILL NOT BE ALLOWED." 
RICCIARDONE