VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0606 0881433
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291433Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7685
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000606 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; UK-IRAN; SITUATION IN IRAN; 03/28/07; 
BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's key international stories are related to the dispute between 
the UK and Iran over the seizure of 15 British Naval personnel; and 
the situation in Iran given that the world is "on the verge of a new 
military confrontation in the (Persian) Gulf." 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "A risky area" 
 
Claudio Mario Aliscioni, international columnist of leading 
"Clarin," penned (03/28) "It is too soon to determine whether the 
world is on the verge of a new military confrontation in the 
(Persian) Gulf. 
 
"According to a Zogby Institute opinion poll, most people in the US, 
as well as most of the business establishment and the media, do not 
believe that an attack against Iran is necessary. However, Iranians 
are also making maneuvers with their ships in the area. And this is 
why it is hard to dismiss an 'involuntary' incident that could 
unexpectedly offer fundamentalists from both sides an excuse for an 
attack." 
 
- "London's limited options" 
 
Graciela Iglesias, London-based correspondent for daily-of-record 
"La Nacion," comments (03/28) "UK PM Tony Blair's warning that his 
government is ready to move on to 'another stage' in the event Iran 
does not release the 15 UK marines recalled the specter of an 
escalation in a crisis that could lead to war. 
 
"The impact of his warning on the Middle East remains uncertain, but 
obviously his tacit threat of force is one more move in the fewer UK 
options in the framework of the dangerous diplomatic game in which 
it is involuntarily merged with Tehran. 
 
"Regardless of the fact that the prevailing tension does not signal 
any kind of commitment, UK authorities still bet on a discreetly 
negotiated solution. German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who 
volunteered to act as a mediator, could play a crucial role in the 
crisis. 
 
"... The most drastic option for the UK Government, aside from 
declaring war, is cutting diplomatic ties through the closure of its 
embassy in Tehran and expulsing the Iranian representative in 
London. Nevertheless, this would deprive the Foreign Office from 
direct information lines, which do matter in handling a crisis like 
this one. 
 
"For the time being, London impatiently expects Tehran to provide 
some wink about the situation of those who were apprehended and to 
reveal what it expects in return for their release. 
 
"They believe that some in the Iranian Government would be inclined 
to put an end to the crisis through a prisoner exchange. Tehran has 
expressed more than once its irritation over the arrest by US forces 
of five members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard... 
 
"However, this move would depend on Washington's willingness, and 
many in the White House are likely to advise against it under the 
argument that every concession granted to Tehran could encourage it 
to repeat similar actions in the future in order to obtain 'bigger 
compensation,' such as the lifting of economic sanctions. 
 
"... The last possibility left to the UK Government is launching an 
'ultimatum' and setting a deadline for the release of its prisoners 
under the threat of retaliation. Nonetheless, the Ahmadinejad regime 
has given signs that it does not lend much attention to deadlines 
imposed by international organizations." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE