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DE RUEHBW #0426/01 0871350
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R 281350Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0542
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000426 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR
SUBJECT:  MINORITY PARTIES FIND THEIR VOICE 
 
SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Due to legislative changes enabling smaller ethnic minority 
parties to enter parliament more easily, several such parties find 
themselves for the first time in the Serbian parliament.  Each has 
established itself as a potential ally of the democratic bloc of 
parties and has promulgated an ambitious platform and set of 
expectations for participating in the next government and/or 
parliament.  These parties, with a total of eight seats, are 
unlikely to gather much attention from the major parties in the near 
term, but their budding voice in parliament ultimately bodes well 
for their prospects in local elections and increased participation 
at the state level in the future.  End Summary. 
 
ELECTION LAWS HELP THE LITTLE GUYS 
---------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The Serbian election law -- amended in 2004, thus first 
applied in the January 2007 parliamentary elections -- allows ethnic 
minority parties to enter parliament with a "natural threshold" of 
1/250 of the total turnout, not to exceed the percentage of the 
minorities' population compared to the general population (in 
practice, 12,000-16,000 votes per deputy seat, depending on 
turnout), rather than the 5 percent required of major parties.  The 
Republican Election Commission also granted these parties a lower 
threshold of required signatures -- 3,000, vice the 10,000 demanded 
by the election law -- to put their candidates on the ballot in the 
recent elections.  These provisions greatly increased the number of 
stand-alone minority parties in parliament, as only the Alliance of 
Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) acquired the requisite 10,000 signatures 
to craft a ballot, and none of the minorities gathered more than 1.3 
percent of the vote. 
 
HUNGARIANS:  CONTENT TO SERVE IN OPPOSITION 
------------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) Josef Kasza's SVM -- which garnered the most votes of any 
stand-alone minority party -- earned three seats in parliament.  He 
told us, though, that he is pessimistic about SVM's prospects of 
participating in government, partly because of bad blood between SVM 
and PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), which has 
categorically ruled out working with SVM.  Laszlo Jozsa -- SVM 
official and president of the National Council of the Hungarian 
Ethnic Minority -- told us that the main obstacle to SVM's 
participation in government is the party's fear of sharing 
responsibility for losing Kosovo in the eyes of the public.   SVM 
supports a cohabitation arrangement between DS and DSS -- which 
Kasza believes is the only ticket to a stable government -- but he 
said that, contrary to media reporting last week, he believes 
Kostunica's "sixth principle" on sharing government responsibilities 
lacks substance and is just an excuse to kick coalition negotiations 
further down the road. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kasza told us that SVM's priorities in parliament largely 
reflect the party's election platform, which is focused on 
proportional representation of Hungarians in state institutions and 
public enterprises, redrawing district borders to group the 
Vojvodina Hungarians more closely together, and implementing a law 
on the function of national councils.  He believes SVM's voice in 
two caucuses will increase the prospects of seeing these initiatives 
come to fruition and assuming a leadership position in at least one 
caucus.  (Note:  Kasza was referring to the minority caucus -- 
composed of two SVM representatives, two Bosniaks, one Roma, and one 
Albanian -- and the Vojvodina caucus, with one SVM official and four 
members of the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, which 
entered parliament in a pre-election coalition with the Liberal 
Democratic Party.  End note.)  Jozsa told us that the SVM 
parliamentary representatives would push for representation in the 
education, culture, legislation, environment, and budget committees 
because of their pertinence to Vojvodina and available expertise 
within the party. 
 
¶5. (SBU) SVM will pursue its initiatives under new leadership, as 
Kasza will step down from the party presidency on April 28 and take 
on an advisory role.  While Kasza told us he is leaving his position 
because of personal priorities, Jozsa intimated that Kasza is 
disappointed in the election results in some of the Vojvodina 
municipalities and believes a new leader would maximize the chances 
of recovering votes in the next election.  Kasza told us that his 
younger and more energetic successor, Istvan Pastor, should be able 
to solidify the party's voting bloc. 
 
UGLJANIN'S BOSNIAKS:  AT KOSTUNICA'S BECK AND CALL 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶6. (SBU) The Coalition of List for Sandzak (LZS) -- led by Novi 
Pazar strongman Sulejman Ugljanin -- has two seats in parliament. 
Presently aligned with DSS, Ugljanin has publicly expressed hope 
that the major democratic parties will achieve "good results, as the 
Kostunica government did."  He indicated that his top priorities 
will be European integration and the full implementation of the new 
Serbian constitution, particularly the provisions for minority 
rights.  He has not publicly declared expectations for a particular 
government post but has stated that he expects LZS to participate in 
 
BELGRADE 00000426  002 OF 003 
 
 
government at all levels.  We expect his overriding priority to 
continue to be seeking ways to undermine his nemesis, Sandzak 
Democratic Party (SDP) leader Rasim Ljajic, who entered parliament 
on the DS ticket and who will probably retain some version of his 
prior position of Minister of Human and Minority Rights. 
 
ROMA:  BRIGHT-EYED AND BUSHY-TAILED 
----------------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) The January elections marked the first time a Roma party 
has succeeded in entering parliament, and the accession of two Roma 
parties indicates an even greater breakthrough for this oft-maligned 
minority group.  Rajko Djuric's Roma Union of Serbia and Srdjan 
Sajn's Roma Party -- the only two of the 16 Roma parties to collect 
the requisite 3,000 signatures to get on the election ballot -- 
garnered sufficient votes for one parliamentary seat each.  Both 
parties are expectedly elated about their new representation in 
parliament, pushing ambitious agendas, and optimistic about their 
prospects in the new government. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although Roma Union has typically been a silent DSS 
supporter, Djuric told us that he also expects DS to be a key ally; 
he lauded Tadic's platform as identical to the principles his Roma 
party endorses.  Djuric declared that he will push for the rapid 
approval and implementation of an anti-discrimination law to benefit 
all minorities, as well as a government program for Roma, a regional 
economic development strategy, decentralization, and media reform. 
Party official Osman Balic told us that his party hopes to work with 
other minority parties to achieve these initiatives.  Balic said 
that the party has requested a place in six ministries:  education, 
social, health, housing, interior, and local administration.  He 
expects Roma Union to receive either the chairman or assistant 
chairman posts in the Education Ministry, the Social Ministry, or 
both, as a consolation prize for not chairing the more important 
ministries. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Sajn was equally ambitious but a bit more pragmatic with 
us.  He told us that he has asked to participate in those ministries 
he believes would directly benefit Roma -- capital investments, 
education, and health -- but has not requested and does not 
anticipate receiving ministerial or deputy ministerial positions. 
He said he expects to work closely with DS and has been pleased with 
the results of negotiations thus far.  He said he is not sure which 
caucus he will join, as he believes that the minority caucus is 
purely a technical means of allowing these groups a voice in 
parliament and expects each representative to vote as he wishes 
[Note:  He is probably right.  End note.].  He opined that the DS 
caucus or the Vojvodina caucus might present a more stable option 
for his party.  Like Djuric, Sajn indicated a strong desire for an 
anti-discrimination law, which would include coordination with 
religious communities and other minority groups.  He also listed as 
priorities a national strategy on child care, representation of 
socially vulnerable groups in parliament, and legislation governing 
education, health, housing, political integration, and security of 
Roma.  He did not appear optimistic about working with Roma Union, 
citing differences in fundamental principles. 
 
ALBANIANS:  IT'S LONELY AT THE TOP 
---------------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) The presence of Riza Halimi -- chairman of the Presevo 
Albanians coalition -- in parliament represents a watershed decision 
by the Albanian minority in Serbia to participate in the elections. 
Halimi has already weathered and rebutted invective from the 
Radicals and Socialists -- Dacic singled him out for vitriol related 
to Kosovo during the constitutive session of parliament -- as well 
as ethnic Albanian rivals in Presevo Valley who do not support 
participation in the Serbian government.  Halimi has sought out 
allies in other minority parties, as well as DS, to ensure that his 
voice is heard during his uphill struggle, which will only become 
more challenging after the settlement of Kosovo.  DS has publicly 
and privately pledged its support to Halimi and his coalition 
partner, and early reports are that the success of Halimi has sent 
rejectionist leader Ragmi Mustafa flailing about for any support 
from the international community as he seems to feel increasingly 
marginalized. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Halimi told us he does not expect to hold a government 
position but believes DS will incorporate the principles he conveyed 
during informal negotiations (DSS has not contacted him).  He hopes 
to serve on the education committee in parliament -- he was a 
professor for 20 years -- as well as those related to security and 
administration.  Others in his caucus tend to support DSS, so he 
emphasized that political independence within the caucus will be key 
to making the caucus work.  He told us that his chief priority will 
be the reinstatement of a coordination body for southern Serbia, for 
which he expects DS support, and he told OSCE officials that he 
hopes to promulgate a new law on national minorities and 
decentralization.  He told us that he has asked for more ethnic 
Albanian participation in state and local institutions -- including 
customs, tax, and border agencies -- and believes DS will support 
legislation to encourage increased connectivity with Pristina, 
particularly in the area of education. 
 
BELGRADE 00000426  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
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¶12. (SBU) The presence of minority parties in the Serbian parliament 
is a major step forward for these underrepresented, 
democratic-leaning polities, and we will look for more participation 
from these groups in the next round of parliamentary elections.  So 
far these officials are holding their own in a challenging political 
climate, refusing to shrink away from controversy.  They are 
developing the ability to provide ambivalent voters from their 
constituencies with an alternative to the major parties and force 
the parties in power to pay attention to their needs.  We expect 
their stalwartness to play well in their home districts and, we 
hope, translate into increased votes in local and municipal 
elections. 
 
POLT