VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBW #0408/01 0821607
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD979A40 MSI7539-695)
P 231607Z MAR 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0520
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1315
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RXFEAA/HQ AFSOUTH NAPLES IT

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000408 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/19 - 
3/23) 
 
REF: BELGRADE 381 
 
¶1. (SBU) This cable summarizes notable events 
relating to Serbia and Kosovo. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary: For the week of March 19, 
reports that Ahtisaari has recommended 
independence for Kosovo, followed by Russia's 
strong objections to any settlement other than a 
"compromise solution" through new talks, were the 
dominant events of the week related to Kosovo and 
Serbia.  End Summary. 
 
UNOSEK VS RUSSIA: THE VIEW FROM BELGRADE 
---------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) As reported in reftel, PM Kostunica and 
other Serbian officials reacted quickly to 
applaud Russian calls throughout the week for new 
talks and a replacement for Ahtisaari.  Belgrade 
media focused on Russian PermRep Vitaly Churkin's 
comments following SRSG Rueker's report, in which 
Churkin noted that the report was "one-sided" and 
that Moscow supports further talks. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Coordinating Center for Kosovo (CCK) 
director and DSS VP Sanda Raskovic-Ivic announced 
she will lead a delegation to Moscow to support 
the Russian initiative with officials in the 
government and the Duma.   Minister of Public 
Administration Zoran Loncar, who is also going to 
Moscow, told the press that the delegation will 
emphasize that Serbia "advocates a compromise" 
within UNSCR 1244 and called Russia's support "of 
historic importance." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Former US PermRep Richard Holbrooke's 
comments to Zagreb daily "Jutarnji List" warning 
that violence could follow a Russian veto 
received attention from both the media and the 
PM's office.  Kostunica's spokesperson said that 
Holbrooke warns of violence by Kosovo Albanians 
"as if he wishes for a new wave of violence." 
The spokesperson added that rather than 
"rewarding terrorists," the international 
community is obliged by UNSCR 1244 to prevent 
violence and punish terrorists. 
 
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY 
------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Belgrade media noted support for an 
expedient UNSCR from EU and British officials and 
the UNSYG.  EU Enlargement Commissioner Rehn said 
that Europe -- not Russia or the U.S. -- would 
"pay the price" if the UNSC did not pass a 
resolution.  He stressed that he is working 
towards unity in Europe on Kosovo in the UN. 
Media also noted a British Foreign Office 
spokesman's comment that Britain supports 
Ahtisaari's proposal and believes that the plan 
offers extensive guarantees to the Serbs and 
Albanian communities in Kosovo. 
 
¶7. (SBU) French Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy, 
during a visit to Belgrade on March 22, told 
Draskovic, Kostunica, and Tadic that he saw no 
need for further negotiations on Kosovo because 
Ahtisaari's proposal offered balanced guarantees 
to the Serb minority in Kosovo -- including 
international protection -- and to the Albanians. 
Draskovic and Kostunica expectedly chided the 
Ahtisaari plan as bereft of compromise and 
therefore unfit for UNSC deliberation. 
 
¶8.  Visiting EUR/SCE Director Hoh met with an 
array of civil society and GOS officials during 
his 3/23 visit.  GOS officials close to the PM 
dismissed increasing speculation in Belgrade 
about a partition deal as "preposterous," 
although one allowed that partition could crop up 
in the longer term as a result of events on the 
ground (i.e., a de facto separation of northern 
Kosovo from an independent Kosovo).  GOS and DS- 
related interlocutors also insisted that any 
solution would have to be endorsed by the UNSC. 
3/23) 
 
¶9. (SBU) According to one influential official close 
to the PM, a scenario involving a UNSCR followed 
by broad (but not unanimous) EU recognition of 
Kosovo would lead to a "4-6 month souring of 
relations" between Serbia and recognizing 
countries, followed by a re-normalization of 
ties. Officials acknowledged that the prospective 
coalition partners are negotiating potential 
reactions to an independence outcome, and one 
senior official told us that the DSS would 
request that all parties in coalition agree in 
writing to a firm policy response to Kosovo 
independence (including possible suspension of 
relations with EU and NATO countries, or, less 
drastically, recalling of Ambassadors). 
 
POLT