VZCZCXRO2784
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0332/01 0711528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121528Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0437
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SR
SUBJECT: LDP - PUNCHING ABOVE ITS WEIGHT 
 
REF:  A. Belgrade 260 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) One of the least discussed, but arguably most significant 
outcomes of Serbia's recent parliamentary elections, is the 
successful effort of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to gain 
representation in parliament.  The party -- which will almost 
certainly stake out an opposition role in parliament -- has quickly 
established itself as a bold, pro-Western policy advocate with 
progressive positions on Kosovo (pro-independence), ICTY (immediate 
arrest of fugitives), lustration, and other key issues.  LDP's 
long-term goals include broadening the party's appeal and, 
ultimately, entering government.  These goals, though, will continue 
to be constrained by the controversial reputation of party leader 
Cedomir Jovanovic, as well as the party's platform itself, which may 
yet be too avant-garde for a Serbian polity slow to abandon its 
Milosevic-era tendencies.  End Summary. 
 
NASCENT PARTY GAINS STAMINA 
--------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) The pre-election coalition of center-left "micro parties" 
led by LDP -- including the Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS), the 
Social Democratic Union (SDU), and the League of Social Democrats of 
Vojvodina (LSV) -- earned 5.39 percent of the vote in the January 
2007 parliamentary elections, sufficient to earn 15 seats in 
parliament.  This showing surpassed the expectations of many, given 
LDP's relative youth -- the party was founded only in November 2005 
from a break-away faction of Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS). 
LDP leadership attributed the coalition's success to tireless 
campaigning by energetic local chapters and by Jovanovic personally, 
unexpectedly high voter turnout (with additional voters thought to 
disproportionately favor reformist democratic parties), and LDP's 
"fresh" message that stood in diametric opposition to the 
nationalist policies of PM Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia 
(DSS) and the watered-down reformism of DS.  In addition, LDP gained 
the backing of all significant Serbian human rights NGOs in the 
run-up to the elections.  Votes brought in by the LSV in Vojvodina 
also certainly helped push the coalition over the 5 percent 
threshold. 
 
PLATFORM AND POLICY PRIORITIES 
------------------------------ 
¶3. (SBU) LDP has adopted a program noticeably more liberal than that 
embraced by the DS, including an acknowledgment of the inevitability 
of Kosovo's independence; lustration, especially in the judiciary; 
advocacy of shock economic therapy and full, immediate 
privatization; and support for issues like gay rights (in a still 
strongly patriarchal and deeply homophobic society).  LDP also was 
the only party to criticize the International Court of Justice 
ruling that Serbia was not responsible for conducting genocide in 
Bosnia (reftel) as too lenient, arguing that the verdict did not 
sufficiently censure Milosevic's policies.  LDP is currently 
gathering signatures to propose a declaration at the next session of 
parliament condemning the Srebrenica massacre, accepting 
responsibility for the war in Bosnia, expressing profound regret to 
the Bosniak people, asking for their forgiveness, and offering acts 
of symbolic reparation as a gesture of healing. 
 
¶4. (SBU) LDP's senior leadership has stressed privately that it 
plans to focus its initial efforts primarily on parliamentary 
legislation pertaining to the economy, the justice system, human 
rights, and decentralization -- although they admitted the latter 
would be difficult to push through parliament, as most parties are 
opposed to substantive devolution and would invoke the provisions 
against it in the new constitution.  LDP has already drafted several 
pieces of legislation to this end: an anti-discrimination act, a 
right to privacy act, a measure granting free legal aid provided in 
some cases by NGOs, a forward-leaning law regulating the activities 
of NGOs, and a law establishing a ministry to support youth 
organizations. 
 
PARTY STRATEGY AND PRIORITIES 
----------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) LDP president Cedomir Jovanovic told us the party has no 
interest in participating in the next government, in part because 
such a move would require undue compromises to the party's 
principles with the political scene still arrayed too heavily on the 
conservative side of the spectrum.  LDP has categorically rejected 
(and vice-versa) entering a coalition with PM Kostunica's DSS. 
LDP's strategy is to build up the party organization and credibility 
in opposition, do well enough in local and Vojvodina provincial 
elections (predicted for later in 2007) to maintain momentum, and 
parlay this momentum into votes in the next parliamentary elections. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ivan Andric, GSS Vice President and a member of LDP's 
parliamentary caucus, said that he expects LDP to make it into the 
local assemblies in all of Serbia's major cities and towns after the 
next municipal elections, and to do particularly well in Vojvodina 
and Belgrade.  LDP is particularly counting on picking up DS voters 
disenchanted by DS's potential ruling coalition deal with DSS.  LDP 
 
BELGRADE 00000332  002 OF 002 
 
 
presidency members told us they felt confident that the party could 
expand its electorate -- even if new elections were held soon -- 
because the other democratic parties would surely lose face in new 
elections, either for failing to form a government, or alternately 
for compromising principles in order to cement a coalition.  By 
contrast, LDP's voting base (and disenchanted DS voters, they hope) 
would be encouraged by the party's principled stand in staying in 
the opposition. 
 
LIMITS TO LDP'S POTENTIAL 
------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Despite the party's fast start and big plans, many in the 
political and analytical establishment are not yet convinced of 
LDP's staying power.  Srdjan Bogosavljevic, chief of the Strategic 
Marketing agency -- a major polling source for the DS -- argues that 
LDP is nothing more than a forward-leaning faction of the DS and 
will either find a way to reintegrate with the DS or stay on the 
margins of Serbian politics.  Medium Gallup TNS chief Srbobran 
Brankovic, close to DSS, shares this view, describing LDP as a 
"post-leftist," intellectual-based party with limited appeal to the 
broader electorate.  LDP officials and supporters, however, maintain 
that the continuing salience of national issues like Kosovo and 
cooperation with the ICTY distort Serbia's political scene, and 
LDP's forward-leaning positions are likely to track closely with a 
much broader portion of the Serbian electorate once these issues are 
taken off the table. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Another key obstacle to LDP's electoral potential is 
Serbian voters' clouded image of Jovanovic, who has found it 
difficult to shake free the allegations of unsavory organized crime 
links that dogged him both during Djindjic's time (as they did 
Djindjic himself) and in the aftermath of Djindjic's assassination 
(bio reporting to follow septel).  The numbers are legion in Serbia 
of those who embrace LDP's message but cannot stomach its key 
messenger.  According to International Republican Institute (IRI) 
pre-election polling, Jovanovic, just as in the case of Zoran 
Djindjic while he was alive, is one of Serbia's most unpopular 
politicians, with 15 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of 
him and a whopping 63 percent viewing him unfavorably.  This 15 
percent of the electorate, then, would appear to represent the 
realistic ceiling of LDP's current potential. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶9. (SBU) Fortunately for the slowly growing chunk of the Serbian 
populace who is anxious to put the 1990s behind them and advance 
quickly toward Euro-Atlantic integration, the dynamic LDP is quickly 
emerging as a viable pro-Western nemesis to the Radicals and a thorn 
in the side of its languid counterparts elsewhere in the democratic 
bloc.  Bereft of the hassles of serving in government, but confident 
of its growing popularity, LDP is free to reform its party in 
accordance with its platform and the will of its voting base. 
Although its current voter base is small (220,000 votes in the last 
election), LDP's future-oriented message could conceivably ensure it 
a viable longer-term presence on Serbia's political scene.  However, 
in order to thrive in the long term, they will have to skillfully 
manage the challenges ahead --a controversial party president, a 
platform that may be ahead of its time, and a party philosophy that 
eschews flexibility for the sake of idealistic principles.  As LDP 
is the only party in parliament willing to recognize the 
inevitability of the loss of Kosovo -- and taking a firm principled 
stance on ICTY cooperation and facing the past -- we will continue 
to look for appropriate ways to engage with them to ensure that a 
responsible, western-oriented voice is heard in the parliament. 
 
POLT