VZCZCXRO1091
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0323/01 0681333
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091333Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0431
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1310
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RXFEAA/HQ AFSOUTH NAPLES IT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000323 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/5 - 3/9) 
 
 
¶1. (U) This cable summarizes notable events relating to 
Serbia and Kosovo. 
 
¶2. (U) Summary: For the week of March 5, Serbia's 
preparation for the final, top-level round of UNOSEK talks, 
as well as the visits of A/S Fried and NATO SYG Scheffer 
were the most notable events related to Kosovo and Serbia. 
According to a national poll (sent to desk), Serbians are 
more divided on Kosovo than ever.  Serbian leaders' hard- 
line rhetoric on Kosovo is an important factor behind 
Serbians' opinion that keeping Kosovo (60%) is more 
important than joining the EU (33%). End Summary. 
 
UNOSEK: the view from Belgrade 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Both PM Kostunica and President Tadic will attend 
the final, top-level round of UNOSEK talks on March 10. PM 
Kostunica's office attacked the Ahtisaari proposal, revised 
after the last two weeks of consultations, as "worse than 
the previous one since it coincides with the position of 
the Albanian separatists." 
 
¶4. (U) Radical Party leader Nikolic said that his party is 
capable of "carrying out a new October 5th" (citing 
Milosevic's ouster) if Kosovo is separated from Serbia. 
 
Polls indicate hardening view on Kosovo 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Rhetoric from Serbian leaders, particularly PM 
Kostunica, that Serbia (and the UNSC) will not accept an 
independent Kosovo, appears to be contributing to hard-line 
public views on the issue.  According to an Embassy- 
sponsored TNS Medium Gallup poll, 33% of Serbians think EU 
accession is more important than keeping Kosovo while 59% 
think the latter is the higher priority (up from 53% in 
December). 
 
¶5. (SBU) Serbians' opinions are hardening on Kosovo issues 
with significantly fewer number of undecided respondents. 
The number of undecided respondents dropped from 14% to 8% 
in the question cited above.  However, the percent of 
Serbians who would consider harsher reactions to Kosovo 
independence seemed to show a modest drop.  In the recent 
poll, 58% would do nothing (up from 54% in December), 23% 
would protest peacefully (down from 27%) and 9% would 
support the use of force.  Interestingly, respondents from 
Belgrade were the hardest line on these issues. 
 
 
Diplomatic Activity 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While A/S Fried's visit and major policy speech in 
Belgrade did not focus on Kosovo, but on the future of 
Serbia in Euro-Atlantic institutions, he fielded several 
questions on Kosovo at his March 6 press conference in Nis. 
In response to a question about a possible veto in the 
UNSC, A/S Fried said it was too early to guess how members 
would vote, but that Kosovo will be resolved this year. 
A/S Fried added that it would be a mistake to assume that 
one country could prevent the adoption of a decision on 
Kosovo's future status.  He called on Serbian leaders to 
act responsibly and bring concrete ideas on the table 
because the issues deal with real people in Kosovo. 
 
¶7. (SBU) SYG Scheffer briefed NATO Ambassadors at the end 
of his March 8 visit to Belgrade.  The SYG called the 
atmospherics "positive" -- more with Tadic than with 
Kostunica.  On Kosovo, he said while the Alliance firmly 
supports the Ahtisaari plan.  He hailed constructive steps 
put forward by CHOD Ponos -- specifically CHOD-COMKFOR 
communication.  On the political side, SYG noted Serbia's 
participation in Brussels (weighing in on Kosovo) as a sign 
of Serbia taking advantage of PfP.  While NATO "cannot 
afford to leave Serbia behind," it is up to Tadic to lead 
Serbians towards Euro-Atlantic integration, the SYG 
concluded. 
 
¶7. (U) In interviews with a Belgrade daily on March 8, both 
the Ambassador and his British counterpart called for 
Serbia's constructive approach to UNOSEK talks.  The 
Ambassador noted that the common goal should be to secure a 
safe and dignified life for the people in Kosovo, including 
Kosovo Serbs, not to score domestic political points.  The 
British Ambassador added that Serbia should form a new 
government as soon as possible and that he sees the country 
 
BELGRADE 00000323  002 OF 002 
 
 
as a partner and future EU member. 
 
POLT