VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBK #1520/01 0730936
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140936Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5534
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASH DC

UNCLAS BANGKOK 001520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
COMMERCE FOR EAP/MAC/OKSA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR WEISEL 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO FOR DAN FINEMAN 
STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE NEW YORK FOR MATT HILDEBRANDT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL TH
SUBJECT: SOMKID PLANS OWN POLITICAL PARTY 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. On March 14 Econoff met with Somkid Jatusripitak, 
Deputy Prime Minister for the Economy during the Thaksin regime and, 
for five days, the current government's spokesman on "sufficiency 
economy" questions. In a wide-ranging discussion, Somkid expressed 
full confidence that elections would be held by early 2008 at the 
latest, that with former Deputy PM Pridiyarthorn's departure RTG 
policies will become friendlier towards foreign investors and that 
he plans to form his own political party and run in the next 
elections "if the new constitution is good enough." Somkid expressed 
confidence that with more appropriate economic policies, the Thai 
economy could again grow at a pace in line with other regional 
economies because Thailand "has a good, sound base from which to 
build." End Summary. 
 
The Old Economic Policies are Dead 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Accompanied by his key advisors, former Vice Minister for 
Commerce, Dr. Uttama Savanayana, and former Secretary (a 
politically-appointed advisory position) to the Commerce Minister, 
Pimon Srivikorn, we met with Somkid in the "Royal Suite" at the 
Bangkok Intercontinental hotel, owned by Pimon's family. Somkid 
began by acknowledging that recent Thai economic policies were bad 
and "damaged confidence of foreign and Thai investors." He blamed 
these policies entirely on former Deputy PM Pridiyathorn and Bank of 
Thailand governor Tarisa whom he described as "arrogant" and "just a 
regulator" respectively. Somkid absolved the rest of the government 
from any responsibility for problematic economic policies explaining 
that PM Surayud "is just a soldier who doesn't know anything about 
economics and he left everything in that field to Pridiyathorn." 
Somkid also argued that Pridiyathorn did not confer with other 
ministers or outsiders when devising his policies. He did not answer 
our question as to why Pridiyathorn chose these policies other than 
that the former Deputy PM "is extremely confident." 
¶3. (SBU) Economic policies such as capital controls and the FBA 
amendments will soon be reversed, according to Somkid, the only 
question is how long is needed to do so in order to avoid the 
government "losing too much face." He claimed that Deputy PM Kosit 
"takes his orders from (Bangkok Bank president) Chatri" and 
therefore will do whatever is good for business. He urged us to 
encourage a committee of foreign business leaders here to meet with 
Kosit to express their concerns. 
¶4. (SBU) Somkid said he has recently met with several leading 
Japanese and PRC businesspersons who have decided to put off any 
additional investments in Thailand "for at least one year after 
elections." He claimed that this extends to JBIC which has been 
approached by the RTG to help fund light rail expansion projects in 
Bangkok. Somkid says JBIC will not say no to the loan request, but 
will stretch out negotiations as needed. Despite this, Somkid 
believes that the Thai economy "will be OK because we have such a 
good base" and that investors will quickly return to Thailand once 
political stability is restored. 
Political Ambition 
------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Turning to politics, Somkid repeatedly said "don't worry" 
about the current regime given up power; "elections will be held end 
of the year; early next year at the latest." Regarding the drafting 
of the new constitution, Somkid argued that even if the new version 
is defeated in a referendum, the RTG "will simply pull the old one 
off the shelf" and elections will be held as planned; "we are too 
democratic now for anything else to happen." 
¶6. (SBU) Somkid then asked "what would the Americans think if I form 
my own political party." He went on to explain that he has the 
support of about 100 former MPs "and a large part of the business 
community." Like any good politician, Somkid averred that he would 
rather stay retired and out of politics but that he should take 
advantage of being "so popular." The deciding factor will be whether 
the draft constitution allows for an appointed PM; if so then Somkid 
said he will not proceed with his party. That said, he and his 
advisors all argued that popular sentiment against such a clause in 
the constitution made it highly unlikely that appointed PMs would be 
incorporated into the draft. 
¶7. (SBU) In response to our question about whether he might be 
excluded from politics if the Thai Rak Thai party is found guilty of 
violating election laws and dissolved by court order, Somkid 
responded that "it all depends on the generals and what they want." 
He said that he believes that the CNS "will pick and choose a few 
people they want to exclude" and that he and Pimon will be exempted. 
On the other hand, he believes that Thaksin will certainly be 
excluded from politics by the court. 
¶8. (U) Somkid has begun formulating the basis of his party's 
economic platform; basically a middle path between the "sufficiency 
economy" philosophy currently espoused and the demand-led, high 
growth approach he pursued when working for Thaksin. His new 
approach, Somkid explained, is based on "four pillars", namely 
"sufficiency by adopting a culture of productivity and a culture of 
collaboration; 'virtue' by introducing market as well as moral 
wisdom; 'capacity' focusing on education; and 'balance' focusing on 
fair income distribution between city and rural areas and balancing 
the economy in both domestic and international fronts, and allowing 
greater participation from the private sector on policy/strategy 
making."  Finally, he wants to differentiate Thailand by positioning 
the country on the basis of its "Thainess" meaning its culture of 
hospitality, cooperation and style. 
¶9. (SBU) Comment. Somkid was jovial and relaxed and seemed 
unperturbed by last month's debacle which saw him resign from 
working for PM Surayud after only 5 days. While he did not want to 
talk about those events, he said he thought the outcome made him 
more popular and made Pridiyathorn an unviable political figure. 
When we asked why Pridiyathorn resigned, Somkid said he didn't know 
and noted "I was the one who appointed him Governor; I don't know 
why he hates me." Somkid was extremely confident that he can win an 
election, pointing to Pimon and saying "you should get to know him 
better, he will be a minister some day." As usual, Somkid emphasized 
his connections to China and Japan which he clearly sees as key to 
Thailand's long-term economic future.  He argued that US companies 
should work with Thai companies to penetrate the Chinese market; "we 
know them; we're the same; and you know us. We all went to American 
universities." BOYCE