VZCZCXRO5514
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0583 0851402
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P 261402Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8992
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0189
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0187
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 6429
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS ABUJA 000583 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAYE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #5 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 131 
     ¶B. 06 ABUJA 3216 
     ¶C. 06 ABUJA 3061 
     ¶D. 06 ABUJA 2917 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) This cable is the fifth in a series of elections 
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local 
environment in the run up to the elections planned for April 
¶2007.  In-depth information will continue to be reported in 
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey 
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes 
any comments or suggestions. 
 
THE CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) This Day newspaper published an opinion poll on 
March 11 indicating Yar'Adua is the presidential 
front-runner.  According to the results, Yar'Adua is likely 
to make a "strong showing" in almost all the 36 states, 
securing the consitutionally required twenty five percent of 
votes case in over 30 states on the first ballot.  With 
regard to gubernatorial races, the poll predicts, if 
elections were held today, PDP would win outrightly in 16 of 
the 36 states, including: Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Bayelsa, 
Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Anambra, Osun, Kebbi, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, 
Bauchi, Gombe, and Kaduna.  Polling data shows the 
gubernatorial race will be close in Abia, Enugu, Imo, Edo, 
Ebonyi, Ondo, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Benue, Adamawa, Taraba, and 
Katsina states -- with AC and/or ANPP candidates threatening 
to overtake PDP.  According to the poll, the PDP, which 
remains solidly in control of the south-south zones, may 
manage to wrestle control from the ANPP in the North-West 
states of Kebbi, Jigawa and Sokoto states. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  A senior member of This Day's editorial 
board told Polcouns on March 23 that his publisher had 
received "millions" from the Presidency to print data 
designed to look like polling data.  He claims no poll had 
been undertaken by the newspaper.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The 24 presidential candidates and their running 
mates are scheduled to participate in a four-day presidential 
debate beginning April 1.  The debates are organized by the 
Nigerian Elections Debate Group, the National Broadcasting 
Commission, the National Orientation Agency, the National 
Democratic Institute (NDI), and the UN Development Programme. 
 At present, Vice President Atiku is not scheduled to appear 
in the debates as he is not on the INEC candidates list. 
 
ELECTION PREPARATIONS 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Leadership newspaper published a photograph on its 
front page March 22 of what it claims is an INEC polling 
station supplies bag and its contents.  The paper allegedly 
obtained the sample of the supplies (which INEC will send to 
each polling station) from an INEC contact.  The supply bag 
is stamped with the INEC logo and includes blue Papermate 
"Erasermate" pens (erasable ball points).  According the the 
newspaper report, INEC will instruct polling officials to 
remove the pen caps, which clearly have an eraser, when 
placing the pens at the voting stations.  (COMMENT: With the 
caps removed, the pens appear to be plain blue ballpoint 
stick pens.  Few Nigerians are familiar with erasable pens so 
the Erasermate name on the pen would not raise suspicion 
among most voters.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Of Interest:  Nigeria has never had a president with 
a college degree.  A win by Yar'Adua or Atiku (or a few of 
the lesser-known candidates) would be the first by a college 
graduate. 
CAMPBELL