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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 000619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/13/07 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Six-party talks: How can "progress" on abduction issue be 
defined? Government facing dilemma over aid to Pyongyang in return 
 
(2) NSC initiative: Many problems in store for secretariat's 
staffing, intelligence gathering 
 
(3) Political advisors, experts make appeals to Prime Minister Abe 
 
(4) Seiron (Opinion) column by Tadae Takubo, guest professor at 
Kyorin University: Return to the starting point for resolution to 
the Northern Territories issue: February 7 is "Northern Territories 
Day" 
 
(5) Toray to step up carbon fiber production: Oligopoly by Japanese 
companies continue 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Six-party talks: How can "progress" on abduction issue be 
defined? Government facing dilemma over aid to Pyongyang in return 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 10, 2007 
 
How Japan defines what constitutes progress on the abduction issue, 
a premise for extending aid to North Korea, likely will 
significantly affect the fate of the six-party talks on North 
Korea's nuclear ambitions now going on in Beijing. The reason is 
that the draft agreement presented by China, the host country, 
mentions that the five participating countries will extend economic 
and energy assistance to the North in exchange for it taking initial 
measures toward abandoning its nuclear development programs. If 
Japan were to set a strict condition, it could prevent the five 
countries from reaching a consensus, but a less stringent condition 
could deal a blow to the administration, causing the government's 
principle to collapse. 
 
Regarding the potential reward to North Korea for giving up its 
nuclear programs, a Foreign Ministry source said: "If the framework 
for an agreement collapses as a result of Japan refusing to get 
involved, it would be difficult for it not to get involved at all. 
It will be an issue for the political arena." However, the abduction 
issue is the top priority for the Abe administration. It cannot 
afford to make concessions without regard to principles. On the 
other hand, since Japan is responsible for complex multilateral 
negotiations, it could encounter situations in which it has to 
determine a settlement line regarding progress on the abduction 
issue. 
 
One Foreign Ministry official said that an ideal form of progress 
would be confirming the survival of even one or two abductees and 
returning them to Japan, but there is no conceivable measure to 
realize that at the present stage. Such being the case, some 
government officials intend to regard the establishment of a 
taskforce on Japan-DPRK relations as incorporated in the draft 
agreement to be progress. That is because a taskforce could be the 
best venue for Japan to directly urge North Korea to settle the 
abduction issue. 
 
However, even senior Foreign Ministry officials are perplexed, with 
one noting, "If Japan acknowledges that progress has been made based 
 
TOKYO 00000619  002 OF 007 
 
 
only on talks, it would give the impression that the Japanese side 
has made great concessions." The actual situation is that progress 
depends on the North actually taking a step forward to settle the 
abduction issue, but with such a situation unlikely to occur, it is 
difficult even to work out what constitutes progress on the 
abduction issue, as a government source put it. All Japan can do is 
to make a decision in a comprehensive manner while monitoring the 
moves of other countries. 
 
(2) NSC initiative: Many problems in store for secretariat's 
staffing, intelligence gathering 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
February 9, 2007 
 
The government plans to establish a national security council (NSC). 
Its aim is to make diplomatic and security policy decisions under 
the prime minister's direct control, thereby improving Japan's 
readiness for eventualities. The NSC gives priority to flexibility 
with cabinet ministers to be added depending on the theme, and it 
will have a secretariat with planning functions. The NSC can work 
out mid- and long-term strategies under the prime minister's office 
or Kantei. However, there are also many operational problems, such 
as what to do about its secretariat's staffing and authority and how 
to build an intelligence-gathering structure. There is no denying 
that the NSC may not function as envisaged. 
 
For its powers, the NSC is modeled after the one in the United 
States. However, its structure is modeled after the one in Britain, 
which is under a parliamentary cabinet system just like Japan's. The 
NSC is envisioned as "a support organization for the prime minister 
to make the best decisions," according to former Deputy Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Nobuo Ishihara, who presides over a working group 
under a government panel to consolidate the Kantei's functions 
regarding national security. To that end, the NSC is designed to 
work flexibly with more cabinet ministers joining in for various 
issues to be discussed. If climate change is on the agenda, for 
instance, the environment minister will be seated in on the NSC. If 
the NSC needs to discuss bird flu, the agriculture and fisheries 
minister will be called in. The NSC is thus enabled to meet 
wide-ranging national crises. 
 
The NSC's secretariat is to be tasked with analyzing information 
that comes in from various ministries and agencies, and the 
secretariat provides the NSC members with options for them to 
 
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discuss mid- and long-term diplomatic and security policies. The 
Kantei wants to make speedy policy decisions under its initiative by 
vesting the secretariat with planning functions. 
 
The NSC's subject matters, however, are wide-ranging from climate 
change to security in East Asia. In addition, there are also many 
challenges in store for the NSC. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa 
Shiozaki, meeting the press yesterday, suggested the need for the 
NSC to be ready with its "powerful backup" of the prime minister so 
that the premier can make appropriate decisions in order to protect 
the people's lives and properties. However, the NSC's secretariat, 
which will be tasked with planning counteractions, is to be staffed 
with only 10-20 personnel for the time being, according to Yuriko 
Koike, a special advisor to the prime minister. 
 
The NSC's secretariat is also to be staffed with experts from within 
and outside the government as political appointees. However, one of 
the ruling Liberal Democratic party's defense policy clique wonders 
 
TOKYO 00000619  003 OF 007 
 
 
if the government can recruit the cream of the crop for the NSC's 
secretariat. The Kantei is also likely to face difficulties in 
 
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screening and developing human resources for the NSC's secretariat. 
There are also objections from within the Foreign Ministry and the 
Defense Ministry to the Kantei against its initiative, insisting on 
their reason for existing. 
 
Furthermore, the NSC's secretariat is not vested with powers to have 
various government ministries and agencies provide information it 
needs. This is also a matter of concern. "We need a manual that 
requires government offices to provide information as required," 
says Minoru Terada, deputy chair of the LDP's national defense 
division. 
 
(3) Political advisors, experts make appeals to Prime Minister Abe 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 7, 2007 
 
Set off by a series of controversial remarks by cabinet ministers, 
the Abe cabinet has been ridiculed as "tensionless and 
free-wheeling." Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Hakuo Yanagisawa 
said, "Women are baby-making machines." Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma 
criticized the United States' decision to launch the Iraq war, and 
Foreign Minister Taro Aso also called the US' Iraq-occupation policy 
"naive." The public support rate of the cabinet continues to 
plummet, with the nonsupport rate now outpacing the support rate in 
some opinion polls. Political advisors and experts advise what Prime 
Minister Shinzo Abe should do to overcome the current crunch 
situation. 
 
Isao Iijima, secretary to former Prime Minister Koizumi: Skillfully 
make use of bureaucrats and ruling parties 
 
The Koizumi administration also found itself in a fix over 
controversial remarks by cabinet ministers or sharp drops in the 
cabinet support rate many times. But it managed to get through such 
difficulties by making use of superior bureaucrats and moving all 
the government offices skillfully. 
 
I hope Prime Minister Abe will also demonstrate his leadership more 
in order to have officials in the policymaking and political areas, 
that is, the bureaucracy and the ruling camp join hands. 
 
What is required most in managing the government is unity among the 
Kantei staff under the chief cabinet secretary, in whom the prime 
minister must place full confidence. The cabinet sometimes faces an 
adverse wind, but it is necessary for the Kantei staff on such an 
occasion to closely band together. 
 
Needless to say it is important to use the right person in the right 
place, and the original point of reform is this principle: "Don't be 
afraid of pain, don't flinch when confronting vested interests, and 
don't always stick to your past experiences." I expect Prime 
Minister Abe to push ahead with reforms, always keeping this 
principle in mind. 
 
The opposition bloc's recent strategy of boycotting Diet 
deliberations is tantamount to their negligence of duty as 
lawmakers. Such tactics will only lead to deepening public distrust 
in politics and never contribute to regaining public confidence. I 
hope that the Abe administration will continue to do its best to 
turn its reform plans into action, without fearing such a 
 
TOKYO 00000619  004 OF 007 
 
 
high-handed approach by the opposition bloc, being discouraged by 
individuals' critical comments, and without being gripped by 
conventional practices and mores in the political world. 
 
Yasunori Sone, professor at Keio University: Dismissal of Yanagisawa 
should be an option 
 
There is no decisive means to recover cabinet approval ratings, 
which are continuously plummeting. People expected the Abe 
administration, when it was launched, to clearly speak for them. 
However, Prime Minister Abe has only apologized profusely. There is 
a wide gap between the public expectation and the real Mr. Abe. 
 
Although it has been reported that Prime Minister Abe is an advocate 
of conservatism, but what he advocates as "conservatism" remains 
ambiguous. While trying to promote reforms based on market-oriented 
neo-liberalism, Abe also takes the stance of placing emphasis on the 
nation's reactionary traditions and cultures. It's hard to 
understand what he places emphasis on. I think Prime Minister Abe 
wants to give priority to the latter policy stance. If that is the 
case, the prime minister should give an explanation with words 
easily understandable by the people, instead of citing such an 
abstract expression as "a beautiful country." 
 
In addition to the series of political gaffes by or scandals 
involving cabinet ministers, the prime minister's murky policy 
stance is behind the recent slide in cabinet support rates. The Abe 
administration is now urged to reorganize itself from its 
foundation. If the prime minister aims to establish a long-term 
government, the government should initially go through a baptism of 
general elections, but it is considered to be actually difficult to 
do so. Instead of only apologizing over Yanagisawa's controversial 
remark, he must come up with a clear-cut message to the people on 
how to stop the falling birthrate and what measures should be taken 
to help women. There is the option of having Yanagisawa step down. A 
resignation by Yanagisawa would deal a serious blow to the cabinet, 
but would it be better for him to stay on and be continuously 
exposed to attacks from the opposition camp? 
 
Kiyoshi Sasamori, former Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation) 
chairman: Prime minister should resign if he fails to present 
measures to rectify social disparity 
 
Cabinet ministers have made controversial remarks in succession. 
Some critics say that the cabinet is going slack, but in my view, 
there is a substantial problem inside the cabinet. Looking at the 
happy faces of the cabinet ministers posing for photos just after 
the Abe cabinet was launched last fall, I wondered if this cabinet 
would be able to properly manage the government. I doubted if it 
were possible for those awarded cabinet posts as a reward for 
supporting Abe in a Liberal Democratic Party presidential race to 
carry out politics for the sake of the public. My apprehensions came 
true. 
 
Such katakana words as "innovation" and "white collar exemption" are 
found in the policies advocated by Prime Minister Abe. Policies must 
be conveyed to the people in the Japanese language in a more 
understandable way. Most members of many government councils are 
those who are unfamiliar with the lives of working people or their 
working conditions. This is also an extremely serious problem. 
Public popularity of the cabinet has been on the decline. That is 
because people have begun to notice that although Prime Minister Abe 
is good-looking, he lacks substance. 
 
TOKYO 00000619  005 OF 007 
 
 
 
Unified local elections and the House of Councillors election will 
be held this year. A revision of the Constitution, a proposal by 
Prime Minister Abe, is expected to take center stage in Diet debates 
over the long run, but this issue should not be made a major issue 
of contention in the upcoming elections. In casting their ballots, 
the voters will focus on whether the current administration has the 
capabilities to correct the widening social discrepancy and to 
revitalize local communities. 
 
Although Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) has stressed the 
importance of reforming people's livelihood, Prime Minister Abe 
seems to be unaware of the importance of people's daily lives. 
Unless he comes up with measures convincing to the public about 
redressing the social disparity and revitalizing families and local 
communities, the Prime Minister will have to step down. 
 
(4) Seiron (Opinion) column by Tadae Takubo, guest professor at 
Kyorin University: Return to the starting point for resolution to 
the Northern Territories issue: February 7 is "Northern Territories 
Day" 
 
SANKEI (Page 11) (Abridged) 
February 7, 2007 
 
Last Dec. 13, when Foreign Minister Taro Aso attended a meeting of 
the Lower House Committee on Foreign Affairs, he made a comment that 
could give the wrong impression that the Japanese government might 
be considering resolving the Northern Territories issue by equally 
splitting in acreage terms the four disputed northern islands 
between Japan and Russia. Given his long career as a lawmaker, I 
presume he made that comment intentionally to test someone's true 
intentions. 
 
Government's attitude toward Russia somewhat strange 
 
What made me feel even more strange was when I saw Aso and the 
questioner, Seiji Maehara of the opposition Democratic Party of 
Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), share the same view that it was high time 
to break the stalemate on the Northern Territories issue. It was as 
if the two were on the same wavelength. Do they believe that if only 
President Putin is convinced to go along, objections in Russia would 
subside? This scene made me worry that Japan might again suffer the 
same humiliation as it did when Russia took away its valuable 
"weapons" and "musical instruments." 
 
It appears to me that the goal of Japanese diplomacy, instead of 
addressing the territorial issue, is to realize a visit to Japan by 
Putin and try to please him. 
 
I think now is the worst time for Japan to engage in territorial 
negotiations with Russia. One reason is that because of the soaring 
prices of oil and natural gas, Russia is flourishing, so economic 
aid is no longer attractive. Moreover, the Putin administration is 
currently in a phase of exclusionist nationalism, as seen in its 
slogan "Strong Russia". For instance, taking advantage of the 
ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the victory against Nazi 
Germany in May 2005, influential Russians came our with statements 
treating Japan in the same way as Nazi Germany. 
 
Mayor of Moscow Luzhkov, who heads the Russian team for the 
Japan-Russia Forum --, though I don't know exactly what the forum is 
like -- stressed (at the ceremony): "The Soviet Union's joining the 
 
TOKYO 00000619  006 OF 007 
 
 
war against Japan was an international obligation based on mutual 
assistance among the Allies." In addition, according to a Russian 
newspaper, Russian Duma Speaker Gryzlov was bold enough to say: 
"Japan's loss of the northern territories came as punishment for its 
invasion of its neighbors." Why did they say such words at the 
ceremony, which had Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi as a guest? 
 
Wisdom of former German Chancellor Kohl 
 
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) is ready to rebut American 
journalism's criticism of Japan, but for some reason or other, it 
remains mum about absurd comments made by influential Russians. To 
make matters worse, some ruling and opposition party lawmakers and 
experts on Russia, as if claiming to be a group of wise men, came up 
with what they called a "compromise proposal" to give to the 
Russians. They are too excited to measure the situation to look for 
a best time for negotiations. 
 
The unification of two German states in 1990 might have come thanks 
to an overlapping of a number of events by chance, but the clincher 
for the unification was presumably former Chancellor Kohl's proposal 
for the adoption of an equivalent exchange system for the two German 
currencies, upon reading the situations in the Soviet Union and East 
Germany. Japan has taken a short view of things and lacks wisdom 
like Kohl's. 
 
What is conspicuous in present-day Russia is President Putin's words 
and actions that are undermining democracy. The international 
community has cast doubts on him due to a stream of gruesome 
incidents, such as the assassination of a female Russian journalist 
and poisoning of a former ranking official of the Federal Security 
Bureau. I think it is a good time for Prime Minister Abe and Foreign 
Minister Aso to push for "values diplomacy," something they are good 
at, in dealing with Russia. They should admonish anyone on the staff 
making thoughtless remarks, and return to the starting point in the 
search for a resolution of the territorial issue. 
 
(5) Toray to step up carbon fiber production: Oligopoly by Japanese 
companies continue 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 13) (Full) 
February 9, 2007 
 
Toray, Toho Tenax, a subsidiary of Teijin, and Mitsubishi Rayon 
command an approximately 70% share on the global carbon fiber 
market. The product is serving as a profit-yielding engine for the 
three companies. Toray plans for an extensive production increase 
with the intention to further boost income from the manufacturing of 
the material. Toho Tenax also plans to start operating large-scale 
production facilities in April 2008. Since there is a high access 
barrier to the production of carbon fiber, as it requires advanced 
technology, the prevailing view is that domestic companies will 
continue to have the leading edge. 
 
The major reason for Toray's decision to step up its carbon fiber 
production is to prepare itself for demand for Boeing's B787. The 
company has concluded an exclusive contract with Boeing. The weight 
of carbon fiber is a quarter of that of iron, but it is ten times as 
strong as that of iron. Lightweight solution through the use of 
carbon fiber will lead to improved fuel efficiency. 
 
Carbon fiber application areas have expanded from aircraft to 
general industrial usage. It is also used for driving parts of 
 
TOKYO 00000619  007 OF 007 
 
 
automobiles. Carbon fiber is now on the threshold of full-fledged 
wide spread use. 
 
Toray estimates that carbon fiber demand will grow at an annual rate 
of about 15%, reaching 45,000 tons in 2010, about 1.7 times greater 
than the demand in 2006. 
 
Toray's operating profit in the carbon fiber-related section for the 
term ending in March 2007 is projected to expand to 18 billion yen, 
1.5 times greater than the preceding term. Among the company's six 
production sections, its operating profit rate takes the first place 
at 25% far ahead of the second earner. 
 
Toho Tenax has also revised upward its outlook for profits for the 
current term. The parent company Teijin has increased the investment 
ratio in Toho Tenax by 13 points to 70% in this term alone. It is 
increasing its involvement in the management of the carbon fiber 
business. 
 
Behind high profitability of carbon fiber is the industrial 
structure, in which three companies are monopolizing the market. 
They are focusing on fields of their specification without 
contending for shares. The three companies have developed their own 
technologies for manufacturing original yarns, the key to quality, 
barring easy access by other competitors. The high access barrier is 
also contributing to the stability of this industry. 
 
SCHIEFFER