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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6311
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6432
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2362
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB 0409
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1402
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1870
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000364 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT 
ASSEMBLY 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  A majority in Congress approved on 
February 13 the Correa government's proposed constituent 
assembly proposal, paving the way for expected approval by 
electoral authorities to organize a referendum.  Correa 
welcomed Congress' action and MinGov Larrea declared it a 
victory for social and indigenous groups.  In approving the 
government's proposal, Congress made changes to the statute, 
most significantly limiting the scope of the assembly from 
dismissing Congress or the President.  The Government is 
expected to welcome Congress' action.  If approved by 
electoral authorities later this week, as expected, the 
referendum could be held in April and elections for the 
Assembly in late September.  Any new constitution would be 
put to a referendum after the Assembly concludes sometime 
between March and May, 2008.  Congressional approval is a 
major political victory for Correa, preventing a threatened 
crisis by bringing the assembly within the bounds of the 
constitution.  End Summary. 
 
Congress Finally Votes 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) With several thousand pro-Assembly demonstrators 
outside, the Ecuadorian Congress today cleared the way for 
President Rafael Correa's referendum on a national 
constituent assembly.  Winning by a vote of 57-1, 
pro-assembly forces included the 24 votes of Lucio 
Gutierrez's PSP, the left-of-center parties, and, 
surprisingly, three of five votes from the conservative UDC 
party.  Members of the PRIAN, PSC and remaining UDC members 
walked out of Congress before the vote. 
 
New Statute and Timeline 
------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U) The approved statute provides for a referendum 
question that would ask voters to vote yes or no to the 
questions "Do you approve the convocation of a national 
constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution under the 
rules described in the attached statute?"  The approved 
statute includes some changes to the statute originally 
submitted by the Government. 
 
Specifically, the approved statute: 
 
-- proclaims the Assembly to be "unbounded" while 
simultaneously declaring it would "respect the popular will 
of the people expressed at the polls on both October 15 
(Congress) and November 26, 2006 (President)"; 
 
-- eliminates the signature requirement for Assembly 
candidates (except for the six candidates representing 
Ecuadorians living abroad); 
 
-- eliminates the proposal to have 50% of Assembly candidates 
under age 45 - the minimum age for Assembly candidates is 20; 
 
-- extends the period by which the Assembly elections shall 
be held to 150 days after the popular referendum; 
 
Congress did not change other parts of the statute, including: 
 
-- leaves intact the proposed number of Assembly members at 
¶130.  (Of those, 24 would be elected nationally, six would 
represent Ecuadorians living abroad, and 100 would be elected 
by province); 
 
-- leaves intact the requirement that the Assembly take 
decisions by an absolute majority (i.e. 50%   1 votes); 
 
-- leaves intact the Assembly period of 180 days, with the 
possibility of a 60-day extension; 
 
-- requires certification that Assembly candidates have lived 
in their home city for the two years prior to the election; 
 
-- specifies that the new constitution and Ecuadorian 
political state will take effect upon approval by referendum. 
 
¶4.  (U) Having cleared the Congress, we anticipate the 
following timeline for the Constituent Assembly, assuming no 
further setbacks. 
 
This week: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) convokes 
referendum. 
 
Mid-April: Referendum takes place, likely approving the 
Assembly. 
 
Late September: Assembly election held. 
 
March/May, 2008: New constitution put to referendum for 
approval. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A majority of Congress saw the folly in resisting 
any longer this very popular measure from a still equally 
popular president, focusing instead on mitigating the 
proposal around the margins. Correa insured the heat stayed 
on with pressure tactics to cajole a majority into action, 
threatening to provoke a constitutional crisis if necessary. 
During his weekly radio address on February 10, Correa again 
threatened to go around Congress and the TSE, if necessary, 
by creating an ad hoc body to administer the referendum if 
either institution delayed its approval past February 15. 
The GOE tacitly welcomed street demonstrations convoked for 
February 12-13, ratcheting up the pressure on the unpopular 
Congress.  Meanwhile, Minister of Government Gustavo Larrea 
negotiated the face-saving compromise with the pro-assembly 
elements of Congress, including Gutierrez's PSP, behind the 
scenes. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The same pro-assembly majority is likely to act 
favorably in the TSE, unless Gutierrez pulls his support.  He 
is unlikely to do so, since the same majority is needed to 
restore Gutierrez' right to run for the Assembly.  Some of 
the Assembly's most radical supporters will gripe about the 
new limitations on its powers, but the government is 
apparently willing to declare victory. 
JEWELL