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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6301
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6427
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2357
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB 0404
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1397
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1861
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV EC
SUBJECT: PROTESTS EXPECTED MONDAY OVER ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: QUITO 274 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  An overwhelming majority in Congress 
reportedly plans to approve the Government's proposed 
referendum on a national constituent assembly in a special 
session to commence on February 12, but will also seek to 
limit the assembly's scope and delay its start until 2008. 
Pro-assembly social groups including labor and indigenous 
organizations promise street action the same day, in protest 
against these changes to the government's original proposal. 
Unless a compromise is reached over the weekend, protests on 
the 12th could be significant.  Police have agreed not to 
dislodge the protesters as long as they remain peaceful. End 
Summary. 
 
New Assembly Statute Popular in Congress, not in Streets 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Media reported on February 9 that 88 (of 100) members 
of Congress are ready to approve the government's referendum 
proposal in a special permanent session on February 12, but 
with important changes to the accompanying assembly statute 
defining its terms.  The revised assembly statute enjoys 
support from all major parties represented in Congress 
(Correa's Alianza PAIS movement is not represented there) 
except the indigenous Pachakutik movement (with six seats), 
the three far-left MPD members, two independents, and the 
lone Socialist member. 
 
¶3.  (U) The revised statute reportedly includes four 
important changes: 
 
-- the Assembly would be limited to writing a new 
constitution, and prohibited from dissolving Congress or any 
other government institutions during its existence (vs. the 
unbounded charter for the Assembly in the government's 
version); 
 
-- voting in the Assembly would be by 2/3 majority (vs. the 
absolute majority proposed by the government); 
 
-- the government would be prohibited from campaigning on 
behalf of any Assembly candidates; and, 
 
-- the Assembly would commence operation on January 5, 2008 
(vs. 10 days after definitive results of Assembly elections, 
as proposed by the Government). 
 
¶4.  (U) Leaders of the labor, indigenous and social groups 
supporting an unbounded Assembly have reacted strongly 
against the proposed revisions, and promised to protest 
against it outside Congress and the National Palace in Quito 
on the 12th.  They also hope to disrupt dialogue between the 
Correa government and Congress over this proposal, 
criticizing the lack of transparency and expressing 
skepticism over both Congress' motives and Correa's 
"passivity."  Radical leftist journalist Paco Velasco of 
Radio La Luna lashed out against Correa's handling of the 
referendum during his February 8 broadcast. 
 
¶5.  (U) At a formal military event on February 8, President 
Correa warned that "these do-nothing politicians 
("politiqueros") are wasting their time" trying to delay the 
referendum.  He defended his proposed candidates for 
Solicitor General (criticized as being unqualified by 
Congress) and insisted the only valid candidates for Attorney 
General are those nominated by the National Judicial Council. 
 (The Constitutional Court invalidated the replacement of two 
members of the Council by the Supreme Court, casting doubt 
over the validity of the Council's nominees for the AG post.) 
 
 
Protests:  Indigenous Ready to Join 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Groups protesting Congress' proposed changes 
include organized labor, Afro-ecuadorians, activist NGOs, and 
the indigenous (including FEINE, the evangelical indigenous 
organization, and ECUAUNARI, the main Sierra indigenous 
umbrella group).  Santiago de la Cruz, vice president of the 
CONAIE indigenous group (which includes ECUAUNARI), told 
PolOffs on February 7 that members of the pro-Assembly 
"Front" were increasingly skeptical of the government's 
commitment to its original proposal, having been "betrayed" 
on promised reforms before, by former president Lucio 
Gutierrez.  Pachakutik leader Gilberto Talahua told the press 
on February 9 that indigenous protests during the week of 
February 12 would be peaceful.  In recent years indigenous 
groups have been slow to turn out in Quito, with the 
exception of FEINE, but have repeatedly protested by blocking 
highways in their home Sierra provinces. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Embassy police contacts tell us they have met with 
protest organizers and agreed not to attempt to disperse 
peaceful demonstrations unless they become violent. 
Demonstrators plan to gather in a park near the Embassy (the 
park is frequently used as a protest gathering point so its 
proximity to the Embassy is coincidental) at 9:00 am and 
march from there to the Congress and then the National 
Presidential Palace (in a direction away from the Embassy). 
The special session of Congress will not begin until 3:00 pm. 
 Police did not provide estimates of protest numbers, nor 
information about possible protest activity in the provinces. 
 Matching or even exceeding last week's estimated turnout of 
3,000 is certainly possible. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) It is notable that the indigenous movements are now 
vowing some degree of mobilization--to date, demonstrators 
have been limited to the urban-based leftist political 
parties.  With pressure from frustrated Assembly supporters 
mounting and being directed at both Congress and Correa, the 
government will try to convince a majority in Congress to 
accept a modified statute without the deal-breaking elements 
imposed by anti-Assembly factions.  Congressional 
professional staff sources tell us they believe a compromise 
can be reached.  Key to the government will be to eliminate 
the delayed start date; the Bolivian example will also make 
the issue of internal Assembly voting rules contentious.  A 
new accord would help deflate planned street action by 
demonstrators. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Failing that, Correa could use his weekly radio 
address to add fuel to the fire, egging on the demonstrators 
to pressure Congress from the streets.  It remains to be seen 
whether the police will do a better job than they did on 
January 30, when pro-Assembly demonstrators forcibly entered 
the Congress building, and whether the indigenous actually 
turn out in force in Quito.  We will take precautions by 
issuing a warden notice advising AmCits to exercise caution, 
avoid crowds and protest routes on the 12th. 
 
JEWELL