VZCZCXRO8033
RR RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0351/01 0571840
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261840Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5068
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEAEPA/EPA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA, G, OES, EB 
WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ 
DOE FOR P&I 
EPA FOR OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR AND INTERNATIONAL 
AFFAIRS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV PINR CA
SUBJECT: LIBERAL ENVIRONMENT CRITIC SHARES VIEWS ON CLIMATE 
CHANGE DEBATE 
 
REF: OTTAWA 0050 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Not for release outside USG 
channels. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Liberal MP and environment critic David 
McGuinty (younger brother of Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty) 
has substantial experience on economic and environmental 
issues at the national and international levels and appears a 
formidable opponent to counter Tory environment Minister John 
Baird in the battle for Canadian hearts and minds on the 
environment and climate change.  The former IVP participant 
appears well-disposed to the United States and recognizes 
American leadership at all levels, public and private, in 
addressing the climate change challenge.  He thinks the Tory 
government's efforts to sell itself as "green" and a 
responsible steward of the environment will soon founder and 
implied the Liberals are ready to see the government fall 
over the budget.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) ECON Minister-Counselor and Econ Specialist met with 
Ottawa-South Member of Parliament David McGuinty on February 
¶21.  McGuinty, a fluently bilingual environmental and natural 
resources lawyer, is articulate and extremely knowledgeable 
about the environment.  First elected to Parliament in June 
2004 and then again in January 2006, the 47-year old McGuinty 
looks like a perfect choice as Opposition Environment critic, 
a position to which he was named in late January 2007. 
 
¶3. (U) A former IVP participant - he was just starting his 
program in Washington on 9/11 - McGuinty praised the program 
and his experience in it; in particular he told us he was 
astounded to see first-hand how the interplay between 
industry, think tanks and governments in the United States 
enriches the policy process.  He praised the efforts of a 
range of public and private actors, including the federal 
government, in addressing climate change; and he is well 
aware the United States spends significantly more on climate 
change S&T and multilateral environmental efforts than any 
other country.  McGuinty clearly is well-informed on, 
understands, and respects the environmental leadership shown 
by the United States over the past 30 years. 
 
¶4. (U) Before his election to Parliament McGuinty was 
president (from 1995 to 2003) of the National Roundtable on 
the Environment and the Economy, a body created by the GoC in 
1988 to examine the environmental and economic implications 
of high-priority issues such as climate change and to offer 
advice on how best to reconcile the sometimes competing 
interests of economic prosperity and environmental 
conservation.  During his tenure, he led the development of 
Canada's Environment and Sustainable Development Indicators. 
 
¶5. (SBU) McGuinty agreed with EMIN's observation that Canada 
had little reason to crow about its climate change 
"successes" under the Liberals, particularly as enumerated by 
then Prime Minister Martin as he disparaged the U.S. as 
lacking moral fiber at the UNFCCC COP 11 in Montreal in 
November 2005.  (Canada,s current GHG emissions are 
approximately 760 megatonnes per year, or about 35 percent, 
over its Kyoto target of 563 Mt).  He said that Martin's 
remarks were a sign of a "drowning man" knowing he was in 
electoral trouble.  Nevertheless, McGuinty claimed that then 
Environment Minister Stephane Dion's "Green Plan" of June 
2005 did constitute a substantive policy framework that would 
have yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power. 
Qhave yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power. 
He noted specifically that in late 2005 the GoC had 
negotiated a 45 megatonne reduction in GHG emissions from 
"Large Final Emitters" (i.e., major point source emitters 
such as power plants and cement plants) which would have 
yielded its reductions in the 2008 to 2012 timeframe.  These 
plans were discarded when the Tories took power in February 
¶2006.  McGuinty added that it was clear to all observers the 
incoming Tory government did not take climate change, or the 
environment more broadly, seriously when they came into 
office and only began to react when polls showed the 
electorate making the environment (with Kyoto as a proxy) a 
top of mind issue (see reftel). 
 
¶6. (SBU) McGuinty thinks that the electorate will see soon 
the Harper government has "no substance" to offer on the 
environment.  In particular he thinks the electorate will see 
 
OTTAWA 00000351  002 OF 002 
 
 
the Tory promise of C$1.5 billion for the provinces (C$350 
million for Quebec alone) for climate change and 
environmental initiatives as a tellingly tiny investment for 
a government that can expect a C$15-plus billion surplus this 
fiscal year. (The Liberal Green Plan of 2005 promised C$3 
billion for similar efforts, he told us).  In addition, 
formally announcing this funding in the March 19 federal 
budget, just a week before the Quebec provincial elections on 
March 26, is a blatantly political roll of the dice, and 
McGuinty estimates the Bloc Quebecois may in fact oppose the 
budget despite this multi-million dollar enticement.  He 
intimated the Liberals and NDP are thinking along similar 
lines.  Finally, he told us that that when Bill C-30, the 
Climate Change Act, emerges from its Parliamentary committee 
re-draft at the end of March (assuming the government does 
not fall on the budget vote) it will be "unrecognizable" when 
compared with the Conservatives' original proposal.  And, he 
concluded, it would be in perfect symmetry with Bill C-288, 
the Liberal "Kyoto" compliance bill that has passed the House 
of Commons and is now in the Senate. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment:  McGuinty is forceful, knowledgeable and 
authoritative, and seems to provide the Liberals with a good 
foil to new Environment Minister Baird.  Nonetheless, his 
comments on Tory efforts to combat climate change broke no 
new ground and contained little that would not be expected in 
what has become a highly politicized debate.  What was 
noteworthy was McGuinty's suggestion the Liberals are still 
looking seriously at using the budget to force the government 
to fall this spring.  In light of these comments, it is 
perhaps significant that he made no mention of Stephane 
Dion's leadership abilities and obvious connection to the 
environment and climate change files.  End Comment. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS